三个典型登闽空心结构台风强降水分布差异分析
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摘要
利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)再分析资料对1710"海棠"、1307"苏力"和0709"圣帕"这三个典型登闽空心台风分别于2017年7月31日、2013年7月13日和2007年8月19日产生的强降水分布差异采用诊断方法分析。结果表明:高层辐散分流通道显著不同,"海棠"与"圣帕"为反气旋性流出气流,"苏力"属于单一流出通道。环境风垂直切变方向对"海棠"与"苏力"大降水落区有一定预报指示意义。湿度锋区及干舌侵入位置的差异对三个台风空心结构形成及强降水分布的差异有重要影响。湿位涡场均呈现下负上正分布,表明大气在低层为对流不稳定状态。湿正压项是"海棠"与"圣帕"台风MCS发展的主要不稳定条件,而湿正压项和湿斜压项均对"苏力"台风MCS发展起加强作用,其中湿正压项对MCS非对称分布起主要作用。
Base on conventional meteorological observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis data,the heavy rainfall distribution differences among three typical hollow typhoons(1710"Haitang"on July 31,2017,1307"Soulik"on July 13,2013,and 0709"Sepat"on August 19,2007) landing in Fujian province were diagnostically analyzed. The results show that the divergence channels at high altitudes of the three typhoons are significantly different;typhoons of"Haitang"and"Sepat"both exhibit anticyclone outflows,while"Soulik"only has a single outflow channel. Vertical wind shear direction is useful to predict heavy rainfall area of typhoons"Haitang"and"Soulik". The front zone of moisture and the intruding location of dry tongue greatly influence the formation of hollow structures and the difference in distributions of strong precipitation. The moist potential vorticity of the three typhoons is negative at low altitudes and positive at high altitudes,indicating a convectively unstable condition of the atmosphere at low altitudes. Wet positive pressure term provides major unstable conditions for the development of mesoscale convective systems(MCS) of"Haitang"and"Sepat",while the wet positive pressure term and the wet baroclinic term both strengthen the development of MCS of"Soulik",and the former term plays an important role in the formation of an asymmetric distribution of MCS.
Base on conventional meteorological observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis data,the heavy rainfall distribution differences among three typical hollow typhoons(1710"Haitang"on July 31,2017,1307"Soulik"on July 13,2013,and 0709"Sepat"on August 19,2007) landing in Fujian province were diagnostically analyzed. The results show that the divergence channels at high altitudes of the three typhoons are significantly different;typhoons of"Haitang"and"Sepat"both exhibit anticyclone outflows,while"Soulik"only has a single outflow channel. Vertical wind shear direction is useful to predict heavy rainfall area of typhoons"Haitang"and"Soulik". The front zone of moisture and the intruding location of dry tongue greatly influence the formation of hollow structures and the difference in distributions of strong precipitation. The moist potential vorticity of the three typhoons is negative at low altitudes and positive at high altitudes,indicating a convectively unstable condition of the atmosphere at low altitudes. Wet positive pressure term provides major unstable conditions for the development of mesoscale convective systems(MCS) of"Haitang"and"Sepat",while the wet positive pressure term and the wet baroclinic term both strengthen the development of MCS of"Soulik",and the former term plays an important role in the formation of an asymmetric distribution of MCS.
引文
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[27]吴志彦,李宏江,赵海军,等.卫星水汽图像和位势涡度场在一次变性台风暴雨过程中的解释应用[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(3):01-08.
[2]陈瑞闪.试论台风的“空心”现象[J].海洋预报,1987,4(1):68-72.
[3]陈联寿,端义宏,宋丽莉,等.台风预报及其灾害[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:40-50.
[4]张长安,郑秀专,潘娅婷.台风圣帕的空心现象分析[J].气象,2008,34(4):48-52.
[5]李英,钱传海,陈联寿.Sepat台风(0709)登陆过程中眼放大现象研究[J].气象学报,2009,67(5):799-810.
[6]赵玉春,王叶红.2013年“苏力”台风西行登陆引发闽南大暴雨成因的模拟研究[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(3):365-380.
[7]黄昌兴,周芳,薛堪彬.台风“潭美”(2013)偏心不对称结构特征分析及数值模拟[J].气象与减灾研究,2014,37(2):11-18.
[8]罗玲,娄小芬,胡亮,等.0604号强热带风暴“碧利斯”结构特征及其暴雨成因分析[J].气象科学,2013,33(2):208-214.
[9]刘爱鸣,林毅,刘铭,等.“碧利斯”和“格美”登陆后暴雨强度不同的天气学对比分析[J].气象,2007,33(5):36-41.
[10]郭达烽,包慧濛,周芳,等.空心台风“麦德姆”(2014)引发的江西局地暴雨过程分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2014,37(4):24-32.
[11]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法(4版)[M].北京:气象出版社,1992:484-491.
[12]金荣花,高栓柱,顾华,等。近31年登陆北上台风特征及其成因分析[J].气象,2006,32(7):33-39.
[13]游景炎,段英,游来光.云降水物理和人工增雨技术研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1994:87-90.
[14]WU L G,b raun S A,Halverson J,et al.A numerical study of Hurricane Erin(2001)part I:model verification and storm evolution[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Scrences,2006,63(2):65-86.
[15]Rogers R,Chen S S,Tenerelli j,et al.A numerical study of the impact of vertical shear on the distribution of rainfall in Hurricane Bonnje(1998)[J].Monthly Weather Review,2003,131(3):1577-1599.
[16]Zhang D L,Kieu C Q.Potential vorticity diagnosis of a simulated hurricane Part ll:quassi-balanced contributions to forced secondary circulations[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Scrences,2006,63(1):2898-2914.
[17]Palmer C K,Barnes G M.The effect of vertical wind shear as diagnosed by the NCEP reanalysis data on Northeast Pacific hurricane itensity[C].AMSA 25th Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.San Diego:CA,2002,58(2):122-123.
[18]林小红,刘爱鸣,刘通易,等.2013年“苏力”与“潭美”相似路径台风大暴雨落区差异分析[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(4):517-525.
[19]寿绍文.位涡理论及其应用[J].气象,2010,36(3):9-18.
[20]孙力,董伟,药明,等.1215“布拉万”台风暴雨及降水非对称分布的成因分析[J].气象学报,2015,73(1):36-49.
[21]徐文慧,倪允琪,汪小康,等.登陆台风内中尺度强对流系统演变机制的湿位涡分析[J].气象学报,2010,68(1):88-101.
[22]农孟松,曾小团.台风“榴莲”暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析[J].广西气象,2002,23(1):13-14.
[23]尹洁,杜惠良,吴静.3个深入内陆热带气旋产生大暴雨的成因[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(3):79-86.
[24]史得道,易笑园,孙密娜,等.影响天津地区两次北上热带气旋过程对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(3):19-27.
[25]丛春华,吴炜,孙莎莎.1949-2012年影响山东地区热带气旋的特征[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(5):67-73.
[26]陈传雷,管兆勇,肖光梁,等.辽宁省极端长历时暴雨时空分布及影响系统特征[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(2):28-34.
[27]吴志彦,李宏江,赵海军,等.卫星水汽图像和位势涡度场在一次变性台风暴雨过程中的解释应用[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(3):01-08.