淮河流域总用水量与用水结构变化的响应
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摘要
淮河流域面临诸多水资源问题,研究其总用水量与用水结构变化的响应关系,对优化用水结构、落实流域最严格水资源管理制度具有重要意义。以淮河流域1997～2016年的总用水量和农业、工业、生活用水量数据为基础,采用VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数,借助Eviews软件,探析淮河流域总用水量与用水结构变动之间的响应关系。结果表明,淮河流域总用水量的变化受农业用水比例变化的影响程度最大;工业用水比例的变化对总用水量的影响存在一定滞后性;淮河流域总用水量与生活用水比例之间呈负响应关系,农业用水比例的变动对总用水量的正向影响比工业用水比例大。通过减小农业的用水比例、调控工业的用水比例、适当加大生活的用水比例等措施,尽量调整、优化淮河流域的用水结构,从而使淮河流域的用水结构更为均衡合理。
There are many water resource problems in Huaihe river basin.It is very important to study on the dynamic relationship analysis between the total water consumption and water utilization structure,which can optimize the water utilization structure and make the strictest water resource management workable.Based on the total water consumption,agricultural,industrial and domestic water consumption data of Huaihe river basin during 1997-2016,this study adopted the VAR model to reveal the dynamic relationship between the total water consumption and water utilization structure through the impulse response function and Eviews software.The results show that the change of the total water consumption in the Huaihe river basin is most affected by the change of the proportion of agricultural water consumption.The change of the proportion of industrial water consumption has some hysteresis to the effect of the total water consumption.It also reveals the negative response relationship between the total water consumption and the proportion of domestic water,while the positive impact of the proportion of agricultural water is greater than industrial water.Therefore,the water utilization structure in Huaihe river basin could be further transformed and optimized by means of decreasing the proportion of agricultural water,meanwhile increasing domestic water and properly controlling industrial water.Thus,water utilization structure in Huaihe river basin would be more balanced and reasonable.
There are many water resource problems in Huaihe river basin.It is very important to study on the dynamic relationship analysis between the total water consumption and water utilization structure,which can optimize the water utilization structure and make the strictest water resource management workable.Based on the total water consumption,agricultural,industrial and domestic water consumption data of Huaihe river basin during 1997-2016,this study adopted the VAR model to reveal the dynamic relationship between the total water consumption and water utilization structure through the impulse response function and Eviews software.The results show that the change of the total water consumption in the Huaihe river basin is most affected by the change of the proportion of agricultural water consumption.The change of the proportion of industrial water consumption has some hysteresis to the effect of the total water consumption.It also reveals the negative response relationship between the total water consumption and the proportion of domestic water,while the positive impact of the proportion of agricultural water is greater than industrial water.Therefore,the water utilization structure in Huaihe river basin could be further transformed and optimized by means of decreasing the proportion of agricultural water,meanwhile increasing domestic water and properly controlling industrial water.Thus,water utilization structure in Huaihe river basin would be more balanced and reasonable.
引文
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[5] 金菊良,崔毅,杨齐祺,等.山东省用水总量与用水结构动态关系分析[J].水利学报,2015,46(5):551-557.
[6] 刘慧敏.区域产业结构与用水结构的协调分析评价[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2014.
[7] 李子奈,叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012.