考虑失效相关性的管道腐蚀故障树新算法
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摘要
为了预测管道腐蚀失效的发生及合理控制管道腐蚀,对油气管道腐蚀危害因素进行分析,建立其失效故障树。考虑到基本事件失效概率的准确性对故障树计算重要性的影响,引入D-S证据理论和Atanassov直觉模糊基本理论,对基本事件模糊概率计算方法进行改进。为提高故障树最小割集及顶事件失效概率的计算精度,建立基于修正的哈马邱尔积算子的最小割集基本事件并联系统失效概率分析模型,提出利用考虑基本事件的属性和分类的排序组合方法,求解多基本事件组合失效概率。研究结果表明:该方法可大幅提高顶事件失效概率的计算精度,为油气管道腐蚀的有效防护提供理论依据。
In order to predict the occurrence of pipeline corrosion failure and control the pipeline corrosion reasonably, the hazard factors of oil and gas pipeline corrosion were analyzed and its fault tree was established. Considering the effect of the accuracy of basic event failure probability to the significance of fault tree calculation, the D-S evidence theory and the basic Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy theory were introduced to improve the fuzzy probability calculation method used for basic event. In order to increase the calculation precision of failure probability of top event and minimum cut sets of fault tree, the failure probability analysis model was established for the parallel system of minimum cut sets' basic events based on the modified Hamacher operator. A sequencing/combining method considering attributes and classification of basic event was put forward to calculate the failure probability of multi-basic event combination. It is indicated that this method can greatly improve the calculation accuracy of failure probability of top event. The research results provide theoretical basis for the effective prevention of oil and gas pipeline corrosion.
In order to predict the occurrence of pipeline corrosion failure and control the pipeline corrosion reasonably, the hazard factors of oil and gas pipeline corrosion were analyzed and its fault tree was established. Considering the effect of the accuracy of basic event failure probability to the significance of fault tree calculation, the D-S evidence theory and the basic Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy theory were introduced to improve the fuzzy probability calculation method used for basic event. In order to increase the calculation precision of failure probability of top event and minimum cut sets of fault tree, the failure probability analysis model was established for the parallel system of minimum cut sets' basic events based on the modified Hamacher operator. A sequencing/combining method considering attributes and classification of basic event was put forward to calculate the failure probability of multi-basic event combination. It is indicated that this method can greatly improve the calculation accuracy of failure probability of top event. The research results provide theoretical basis for the effective prevention of oil and gas pipeline corrosion.
引文
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[9]阎凤霞,董玉华,高惠临.故障树分析方法在油气管线方面的应用[J].西安石油学院学报,2003,18(1):47-50.YAN F X,DONG Y H,GAO H L.Application of fault tree analysis to the failure analysis of oil and gas pipelines[J].Journal of Xi'an Petroleum Institute,2003,18(1):47-50.
[10]陈利琼,张鹏.油气管道危害辨识故障树分析方法研究[J].油气储运,2007,26(2):18-24.CHEN L Q,ZHANG P.Study on the FTA(fault tree analysis)of oil/gas pipeline hazard identification[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2007,26(2):18-24.
[11]KHALED A,SAMI A,JASEM A,et al.Using fault tree analysis in the Al-Ahmadi town gas leak incidents[J].Safety Science,2015,79:184-192.
[12]DONG Y,YU D.Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005,18(2):83-88.
[13]张鹏,张庆功,胡启国.哈马邱尔算子应用于系统可靠度计算的讨论[J].机械强度,2004,26(6):670-674.ZHANG P,ZHANG Q G,HU Q G.Discussions on application of Hamacher operator to systematic reliability computation[J].Journal of Mechanical Strength,2004,26(6):670-674.
[14]YANG Y,FENG Y Q,LIU L N.The application of Hamacher operators in fuzzy evaluation[J].Management Review,2011,23(8):162-168.
[15]MO Y.A multiple-valued decision-diagram-based approach to solve dynamic fault trees[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2014,63(1):81-93.
[16]彭星煜.基于易损性的典型第三方作用下油气管道整体可靠性分析[D].成都:西南石油大学,2010:61-62.PENG X Y.Holistic reliability analysis for oil/gas pipeline under typical third-party actions based on fragility theory[D].Chengdu:Southwest Petroleum University,2010:61-62.
[17]雷英杰,王宝树,苗启广.直觉模糊关系及其合成运算[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(2):113-116.LEI Y J,WANG B S,MIAO Q G.On the intuitionistic fuzzy relations with compositional operations[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2005,25(2):113-116.
[18]李文立,郭凯红.D-S证据理论合成规则及冲突问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(8):1422-1427.LI W L,GUO K H.Combination rules of D-S evidence theory and conflict problem[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2010,30(8):1422-1427.
[19]杨杰,王建华,张军,等.埋地输油管道杂散电流腐蚀故障树分析[J].后勤工程学院学报,2012,28(6):39-44.YANG J,WANG J H,ZHANG J,et al.Fault tree analysis on stray current corrosion of buried oil pipeline[J].Journal of Logistical Engineering University,2012,28(6):39-44.
[20]廖柯熹,姚安林,张淮鑫.长输管道失效故障树分析[J].油气储运,2001,20(1):27-30.LIAO K X,YAO A L,ZHANG H X.Failure tree analysis on the long distance pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2001,20(1):27-30.
[21]李进,何人可,廖星.在役输气管道防腐失效故障树分析与可靠性增长对策[J].油气田地面工程,2010,29(1):60-61.LI J,HE R K,LIAO X.Fault tree analysis on corrosion protection failure&reliability growth measures of in-service gas pipeline[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2010,29(1):60-61.
[2]ZHANG F R,ZHANG H.A combined model-based prediction of the corrosion rate of oil-gas pipeline[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2010,38(6):18-21.
[3]胡灯明,骆晖.国内外天然气管道事故分析[J].石油工业技术监督,2009,26(9):8-12.HU D M,LUO H.The analysis of accidents on foreign and domestic natural gas pipelines[J].Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry,2009,26(9):8-12.
[4]JIMéNEZCOME M J,TURIAS I J,RUIZ-AGUILAR J J.Atwo-stage model based on artificial neural networks to determine pitting corrosion status of 316L stainless steel[J].Corrosion Reviews,2016,34(1/2):113-125.
[5]张占奎.油气管道腐蚀失效预测及安全可靠性评估研究[D].天津:天津大学,2006:9-12.ZHANG Z K.Study on corrosion failure prediction and reliability evaluation of oil transmission pipeline[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2006:9-12.
[6]杨静,王晓霖,谢成.油气管道腐蚀缺陷维修响应决策[J].油气储运,2017,36(2):149-154.YANG J,WANG X L,XIE C.Maintenance response decision on corrosion defects of oil and gas pipelines[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2017,36(2):149-154.
[7]MARUSCHAK P,PRENTKOVSKIS O,BISHCHAK R.Defectiveness of external and internal surfaces of the main oil and gas pipelines after long-term operation[J].Journal of Civil Engineering&Management,2016,22(2):279-286.
[8]沈乾坤.论油气储运中的管道防腐问题[J].中国石油和化工标准与质量,2012,33(9):297.SHEN Q K.Pipeline corrosion protection in oil and gas storage and transportation[J].China Petroleum and Chemical Standard and Quality,2012,33(9):297.
[9]阎凤霞,董玉华,高惠临.故障树分析方法在油气管线方面的应用[J].西安石油学院学报,2003,18(1):47-50.YAN F X,DONG Y H,GAO H L.Application of fault tree analysis to the failure analysis of oil and gas pipelines[J].Journal of Xi'an Petroleum Institute,2003,18(1):47-50.
[10]陈利琼,张鹏.油气管道危害辨识故障树分析方法研究[J].油气储运,2007,26(2):18-24.CHEN L Q,ZHANG P.Study on the FTA(fault tree analysis)of oil/gas pipeline hazard identification[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2007,26(2):18-24.
[11]KHALED A,SAMI A,JASEM A,et al.Using fault tree analysis in the Al-Ahmadi town gas leak incidents[J].Safety Science,2015,79:184-192.
[12]DONG Y,YU D.Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005,18(2):83-88.
[13]张鹏,张庆功,胡启国.哈马邱尔算子应用于系统可靠度计算的讨论[J].机械强度,2004,26(6):670-674.ZHANG P,ZHANG Q G,HU Q G.Discussions on application of Hamacher operator to systematic reliability computation[J].Journal of Mechanical Strength,2004,26(6):670-674.
[14]YANG Y,FENG Y Q,LIU L N.The application of Hamacher operators in fuzzy evaluation[J].Management Review,2011,23(8):162-168.
[15]MO Y.A multiple-valued decision-diagram-based approach to solve dynamic fault trees[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2014,63(1):81-93.
[16]彭星煜.基于易损性的典型第三方作用下油气管道整体可靠性分析[D].成都:西南石油大学,2010:61-62.PENG X Y.Holistic reliability analysis for oil/gas pipeline under typical third-party actions based on fragility theory[D].Chengdu:Southwest Petroleum University,2010:61-62.
[17]雷英杰,王宝树,苗启广.直觉模糊关系及其合成运算[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(2):113-116.LEI Y J,WANG B S,MIAO Q G.On the intuitionistic fuzzy relations with compositional operations[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2005,25(2):113-116.
[18]李文立,郭凯红.D-S证据理论合成规则及冲突问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(8):1422-1427.LI W L,GUO K H.Combination rules of D-S evidence theory and conflict problem[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2010,30(8):1422-1427.
[19]杨杰,王建华,张军,等.埋地输油管道杂散电流腐蚀故障树分析[J].后勤工程学院学报,2012,28(6):39-44.YANG J,WANG J H,ZHANG J,et al.Fault tree analysis on stray current corrosion of buried oil pipeline[J].Journal of Logistical Engineering University,2012,28(6):39-44.
[20]廖柯熹,姚安林,张淮鑫.长输管道失效故障树分析[J].油气储运,2001,20(1):27-30.LIAO K X,YAO A L,ZHANG H X.Failure tree analysis on the long distance pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2001,20(1):27-30.
[21]李进,何人可,廖星.在役输气管道防腐失效故障树分析与可靠性增长对策[J].油气田地面工程,2010,29(1):60-61.LI J,HE R K,LIAO X.Fault tree analysis on corrosion protection failure&reliability growth measures of in-service gas pipeline[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2010,29(1):60-61.