基于情景相似度的突发事件情报感知实现方法
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摘要
基于情景相似度的突发事件情报感知方法应用,将以往的经验情报和当下的即时情报进行结合和交叉应用,能够有效实现突发事件的事件识别和情报研判。本文首先阐释了基于情景相似度的情报感知思路,然后提出了情报感知的一种实现方法,即将情报资源分析之上的情景要素与当前突发事件呈现的特征属性进行相似度检验,最后通过扎根理论、文本分词、特征词提取、相似度计算等方法,以危险化学品事故作为应用实例。研究发现,突发事件情报资源的情景分析为实践中突发事件的态势感知提供了基本依据,而基于情景相似度检验的实现方法能让已有情报资源被迅速感知,为后续的情景构建和应急决策提供强力支撑。
By combining previous experience intelligence and current real-time intelligence, the implementation method of intelligence awareness in an emergency based on scenario similarity can effectively realize event identification and intel‐ligence judgment of emergencies. This paper elaborates on the idea of intelligence awareness based on scenario similarity,and subsequently proposes an implementation method of intelligence awareness. The implementation method tested the similarity between the scene elements analyzed by the intelligence resource and the characteristic attributes presented by the current emergency. Finally, hazardous chemical accidents were used as examples based on grounding theory, text seg‐mentation, feature word extraction, and similarity calculation. This research finds that the scenario analysis of intelligence resources in an emergency provides a fundamental basis for situation awareness of emergencies in practice. Furthermore,the implementation method based on the scenario similarity test enabled existing intelligence resources to be quickly per‐ceived and offers strong support to subsequent scenario constructions and emergency decisions.
By combining previous experience intelligence and current real-time intelligence, the implementation method of intelligence awareness in an emergency based on scenario similarity can effectively realize event identification and intel‐ligence judgment of emergencies. This paper elaborates on the idea of intelligence awareness based on scenario similarity,and subsequently proposes an implementation method of intelligence awareness. The implementation method tested the similarity between the scene elements analyzed by the intelligence resource and the characteristic attributes presented by the current emergency. Finally, hazardous chemical accidents were used as examples based on grounding theory, text seg‐mentation, feature word extraction, and similarity calculation. This research finds that the scenario analysis of intelligence resources in an emergency provides a fundamental basis for situation awareness of emergencies in practice. Furthermore,the implementation method based on the scenario similarity test enabled existing intelligence resources to be quickly per‐ceived and offers strong support to subsequent scenario constructions and emergency decisions.
引文
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[13]姚乐野,范炜.突发事件应急管理中的情报本征机理研究[J].图书情报工作, 2014, 58(23):6-11.
[14]李纲,李阳.情报视角下的突发事件应急决策研究[J].情报理论与实践, 2015, 38(8):61-65, 26.
[15]苏新宁,朱晓峰,崔露方.基于生命周期的应急情报体系理论模型构建[J].情报学报, 2017, 36(10):989-997.
[16]孙建军,柯青.不完全信息环境下的情报分析方法——情景分析法及其在情报研究中的应用[J].图书情报工作, 2007, 51(2):63-66.
[17]史秉能,袁有雄,卢胜军.钱学森科技情报工作及相关学术文选[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2015:90-93.
[18]孙山.民航“重大突发事件情景构建”应用实例探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术, 2014, 10(4):173-177.
[19]张海波.风险灾害危机研究的概念体系[J].风险灾害危机研究, 2017(1):1-9.
[20]张宝生,张庆普.基于扎根理论的社会化问答社区用户知识贡献行为意向影响因素研究[J].情报学报, 2018, 37(10):1034-1045.
[21]张越,王东波,朱丹浩.面向食品安全突发事件汉语分词的特征选择及模型优化研究[J].数据分析与知识发现, 2017, 1(2):64-72.
[22]沙勇忠.公共危机信息管理[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2014:426-427.
[23]殷聪,张李义.基于TF-IDF的情境后过滤推荐算法研究——以餐饮业O2O为例[J].数据分析与知识发现, 2018, 2(11):28-36.
[24]许君宁.基于知网语义相似度的中文文本聚类方法研究[D].西安:西安电子科技大学, 2010:35.
[25]姜卉,侯建盛.基于情景重建的非常规突发事件应急处置方案的快速生成方法研究[J].中国应急管理, 2012(1):14-20.
[26]刘群,李素建.基于《知网》的词汇语义相似度计算[J].中文计算语言学, 2002, 7(2):59-76.
[2]李仕明,张志英,刘樑,等.非常规突发事件情景概念研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2014, 16(1):1-5.
[3] Amailef K, Lu J. Ontology-supported case-based reasoning approach for intelligent m-government emergency response services[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2013, 55(1):79-97.
[4]刘铁民.重大突发事件情景规划与构建研究[J].中国应急管理, 2012(4):18-23.
[5]刘德海,王维国,孙康.基于演化博弈的重大突发公共卫生事件情景预测模型与防控措施[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(5):937-946.
[6]李锋,王慧敏.基于知识元的非常规突发洪水应急情景分析与表达研究[J].软科学, 2016, 30(4):140-144.
[7]刘德海,尹丽娟.基于情景分析的城市拆迁突发事件博弈均衡演化模型[J].管理评论, 2012, 24(5):154-159.
[8]吴倩,谈伟,盖文妹.基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航突发事件情景分析研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术, 2016, 12(3):169-174.
[9]张小趁,陈红旗.基于情景应对模式的突发地质灾害应急防治探讨[J].人民长江, 2015, 46(23):29-33.
[10] Pereira V A, Sanches M F, Botega L C, et al. Multi-criteria fusion of heterogeneous information for improving situation awareness on emergency management systems[C]//Proceedings of the Inter-national Conference on Human Interface and the Management of Information. Heidelberg:Springer, 2015, 9173:3-14.
[11] Erskine M A, Pepper W. enhancing emergency response manage-ment using emergency description information technology(ED-IT):A design science approach[J]. International Journal of Elec-tronic Government Research, 2015, 11(2):51-65.
[12] Alamdar F, Kalantari M, Rajabifard A. Towards multi-agency sen-sor information integration for disaster management[J]. Comput-ers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2016, 56:68-85.
[13]姚乐野,范炜.突发事件应急管理中的情报本征机理研究[J].图书情报工作, 2014, 58(23):6-11.
[14]李纲,李阳.情报视角下的突发事件应急决策研究[J].情报理论与实践, 2015, 38(8):61-65, 26.
[15]苏新宁,朱晓峰,崔露方.基于生命周期的应急情报体系理论模型构建[J].情报学报, 2017, 36(10):989-997.
[16]孙建军,柯青.不完全信息环境下的情报分析方法——情景分析法及其在情报研究中的应用[J].图书情报工作, 2007, 51(2):63-66.
[17]史秉能,袁有雄,卢胜军.钱学森科技情报工作及相关学术文选[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2015:90-93.
[18]孙山.民航“重大突发事件情景构建”应用实例探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术, 2014, 10(4):173-177.
[19]张海波.风险灾害危机研究的概念体系[J].风险灾害危机研究, 2017(1):1-9.
[20]张宝生,张庆普.基于扎根理论的社会化问答社区用户知识贡献行为意向影响因素研究[J].情报学报, 2018, 37(10):1034-1045.
[21]张越,王东波,朱丹浩.面向食品安全突发事件汉语分词的特征选择及模型优化研究[J].数据分析与知识发现, 2017, 1(2):64-72.
[22]沙勇忠.公共危机信息管理[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2014:426-427.
[23]殷聪,张李义.基于TF-IDF的情境后过滤推荐算法研究——以餐饮业O2O为例[J].数据分析与知识发现, 2018, 2(11):28-36.
[24]许君宁.基于知网语义相似度的中文文本聚类方法研究[D].西安:西安电子科技大学, 2010:35.
[25]姜卉,侯建盛.基于情景重建的非常规突发事件应急处置方案的快速生成方法研究[J].中国应急管理, 2012(1):14-20.
[26]刘群,李素建.基于《知网》的词汇语义相似度计算[J].中文计算语言学, 2002, 7(2):59-76.