“工业4.0”对经济发展的影响及作用效果——基于德国行业面板数据的实证分析
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摘要
以德国为研究对象,首次从实证角度探讨"工业4.0"的技术变革对经济发展的影响。"工业4.0"战略之后,德国经济平稳快速增长;采用德国11个主要行业的面板数据,得到"工业4.0"确实对德国经济有一定影响,信息物理系统中短期内物理层的投资会增加经济支出,但网络层和信息层在经济增长中会起到明显的促进作用;2014-2016年,"工业4.0"的时间效应显示德国产业发展出现明显的正向拐点效应。
Taking Germany as the research object, this paper discusses the impact of technological transformation of "Industrial 4.0"on the economic development. Since the strategy of "Industrial 4.0" was put forward,German economy have grown steadily and rapidly. After the use of the panel data of the 11 major German industries, "Industrial 4.0"had a certain effect on the development of the German economy. In the short term of information physical system, the investment in the internal physical layer will increase the economic expenditure, but the network layer and the information layer will play a significant role in the economic growth. the time effect of "Industrial 4.0" shows the obvious positive inflection point effect in the development of the German industry in 2014-2016.
Taking Germany as the research object, this paper discusses the impact of technological transformation of "Industrial 4.0"on the economic development. Since the strategy of "Industrial 4.0" was put forward,German economy have grown steadily and rapidly. After the use of the panel data of the 11 major German industries, "Industrial 4.0"had a certain effect on the development of the German economy. In the short term of information physical system, the investment in the internal physical layer will increase the economic expenditure, but the network layer and the information layer will play a significant role in the economic growth. the time effect of "Industrial 4.0" shows the obvious positive inflection point effect in the development of the German industry in 2014-2016.
引文
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[8]裴长洪,于燕.德国“工业4.0”与中德制造业合作新发展[J].财经问题研究,2014(10):27-33.
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[2]张曙.中国制造企业如何迈向工业4.0[J].机械设计与制造工程,2014(12):1-5.
[3]森德勒.工业4.0即将来袭的第四次工业革命[M].邓敏,李现民,译.北京:机械工业出版社,2014.
[4]SCHUH G,POTENTE T,WESCH-POTENTE C,et al.Collaboration mechanisms to increase productivity in the context of industrie 4.0[J].In 2nd CIRP Robust Manufacturing Conference,2014(19):51-56.
[5]SCHUH G,REUTER C,HAUPTVOGEL A,et al.Hypotheses for a theory of production in the context of industrie 4.0[J].Advances in Production Technology,2015,11(1):11-23.
[6]GRUBER F E.Industry 4.0:a best practice project of the automotive industry[J].Digital Product and Process Development Systems,2013(411):36-40.
[7]VOUDOURIS I,LIOUKAS S,LATRELLI M.Effectiveness of technology investment:impact of internal technological capability,networking and investment’s strategic importance[J].Technovation,2012,3(411):400-414.
[8]裴长洪,于燕.德国“工业4.0”与中德制造业合作新发展[J].财经问题研究,2014(10):27-33.
[9]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组.第三次工业革命的特征及影响[J].中国社会科学报,2012,9:93-98.
[10]SCHWAB K.The global competitiveness report 2017—2018[R].New Delhi:World Economic Forum,2018:23.
[11]SCHWAB K.The global competitiveness report 2015—2016[R].New Delhi:World Economic Forum,2015:24.
[12]SCHWAB K.Human capital report 2017[R].New Delhi:World Economic Forum,2017:8.
[13]SILJA B,SOUMITRA D,BRUNO L.The global information technology report 2016[R].Switzerland:World Economic Forum and INSEAD,2016.
[14]GREENE W.Econometric analysis (4th edn) [M].New Jersey:Prentice Hall,2000:598.
[15]WOOLDRIGE J M.Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,2002:282-283.
[16]FRIEDMAN M.The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1937,32(200):675-701.