石岛地区暴雨天气过程分析及气象服务评价
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摘要
从天气形势配置与暴雨落区的关系、数值预报情况等方面分析了2013年7月12日石岛地区暴雨过程,发现此次过程为典型的西风槽与副热带高压边缘西南暖湿气流交绥造成的,低空急流的建立、发展和维持为暴雨区提供了强的水汽输送和能量积累;水汽通量的强辐合是降水的中尺度对流系统发生发展的重要条件之一;切变线与低空急流的位置对暴雨落区有明显的影响。根据分析结果,及时发布预警信号,积极做好气象服务,有效减轻了人民群众的财产损失。此次天气过程的气象服务对于气象部门应对极端天气过程具有重要的参考价价值。
The rainstorm process in Shidao area on July 12, 2013 was analyzed from the relationship between weather situation configuration and rainstorm area, and numerical forecasting,it was found that the process was caused by the intersection of a typical westerly trough and the southwest warm and humid airflow along the subtropical high-pressure edge;the establishment, development and maintenance of low-level jets provided strong water vapor transport and energy accumulation for storm areas;the strong convergence of water vapor flux was one of the important conditions for the occurrence and development of precipitation mesoscale convective systems;the location of the shear line and the low-level jet stream had a significant impact on the rainstorm area.According to the analysis results, timely warning signals were issued, and meteorological services were actively carried out, effectively reducing the property losses of the people.The meteorological services of the weather process had important reference value for the meteorological department to deal with extreme weather processes.
The rainstorm process in Shidao area on July 12, 2013 was analyzed from the relationship between weather situation configuration and rainstorm area, and numerical forecasting,it was found that the process was caused by the intersection of a typical westerly trough and the southwest warm and humid airflow along the subtropical high-pressure edge;the establishment, development and maintenance of low-level jets provided strong water vapor transport and energy accumulation for storm areas;the strong convergence of water vapor flux was one of the important conditions for the occurrence and development of precipitation mesoscale convective systems;the location of the shear line and the low-level jet stream had a significant impact on the rainstorm area.According to the analysis results, timely warning signals were issued, and meteorological services were actively carried out, effectively reducing the property losses of the people.The meteorological services of the weather process had important reference value for the meteorological department to deal with extreme weather processes.
引文
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[2] 何群英,陈涛.2006年8月海河流域暴雨过程的成因分析[J].气象,2009,35(1):80-86.
[3] 亓翠芸,史桂芝,王惠芳,等.2008年7月4—5日山东暴雨天气过程分析[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(12):358-364.
[4] 刘建清,田忠明,朱天征.一次大暴雨天气过程的成因分析[C]//第27届中国气象学会年会灾害天气研究与预报分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会,2010.
[5] 曹钢锋,张善君,朱官忠,等.山东天气分析与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1988:156-179.
[6] 姚学祥.天气预报技术与方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2011:80.
[7] 李永果,孟宪栋,张芹,等.2009年7月6日山东暴雨的中尺度分析[J].山东气象,2010,30(1):10-12.
[8] 丁一汇.高等天气学[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2005.
[9] 李韬,周淑玲,刘澈,等.黄河下游春季一次大暴雨过程的结构特征及落区分析[J].科技导报,2006,24(9):21-24.
[10] 王瑶,李奇,鲁小荣,等.新疆昌吉回族自治州暴雨天气过程气象服务分析评价[J].内蒙古气象,2017(2):37-40.