财政平衡原则下的税收政策效应分析
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摘要
我国以往对税收政策的研究大多集中于定性讨论,鉴于此,构建一个含消费税、劳动收入税、资本收入税的DSGE模型,利用贝叶斯方法估计财政平衡原则系数,并在此基础上分析税收冲击对经济社会的影响。分析结果表明,税收冲击短期效应明显,收敛较快,适宜作为短期干预手段;政府支出短期效应小,波动较大,但中长期效果显著,适宜作为长期干预手段。三类税收中,资本收入税对经济整体影响幅度最小,在当前中国经济改革错综复杂的局面下较为适宜使用。
In the past,most of the researches on tax policy in our country focused on the qualitative discussion.Based on this,a study is conducted in this paper to construct a DSGE model with consumption tax,labor income tax and capital income tax,estimate the coefficient of fiscal balance principle by making use of the Bayesian method and analyze the impact of tax revenue on economic society. The result shows that the short-term effect of tax shock is obvious and the constringency is quick. Therefore,it is appropriate as a short-term intervention.Meanwhile,the short-term effect of government expenditure is small and volatile,but the long-term effect is significant,which is suitable as a long-term intervention. Among the three types of taxes,the capital income tax has the least impact on the economy as a whole,and is more suitable for use under the current complicated economic reform in China.
In the past,most of the researches on tax policy in our country focused on the qualitative discussion.Based on this,a study is conducted in this paper to construct a DSGE model with consumption tax,labor income tax and capital income tax,estimate the coefficient of fiscal balance principle by making use of the Bayesian method and analyze the impact of tax revenue on economic society. The result shows that the short-term effect of tax shock is obvious and the constringency is quick. Therefore,it is appropriate as a short-term intervention.Meanwhile,the short-term effect of government expenditure is small and volatile,but the long-term effect is significant,which is suitable as a long-term intervention. Among the three types of taxes,the capital income tax has the least impact on the economy as a whole,and is more suitable for use under the current complicated economic reform in China.
引文
[1]Ramsey F.P.A Contribution to The Theory of Taxation[J].The Economic Journal,1927,37:47-61.
[2]Mc Grattan E.R.The Macroeconomic Effects of Distortionary Taxation[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,33(3):573-601.
[3]黄赜琳.中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应——一个基于三部分RBC模型的实证分析[J].经济研究,2005,(6):4-17.
[4]Leeper E M,etc.Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States[J].Journal of Econometrics,2010,156(2):304-321.
[5]肖尧,牛永青.财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用[J].统计研究,2014,(4):51-56.
[6]王文甫.价格粘性、流动性约束与中国财政政策宏观效应——动态新凯恩斯主义视角[J].管理世界,2010,(9):11-25.
[7]张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果——基于DSGE分析[J].经济研究,2013,(1):41-53.
[8]罗英,聂鹏.后危机时代中国财政政策的动态效应分析——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟[J].经济学家,2011,(4):53-62.
[9]卞志村,胡恒强.结构性减税、财政支出扩张与中国经济波动[J].金融评论,2016,(4):18-30.
[10]黄赜琳,朱保华.中国的实际经济周期与税收政策效应[J].经济研究,2015,(3):4-17.
[11]杨灿明,詹新宇.中国宏观税负政策偏向的经济波动效应[J].中国社会科学,2016,(4):71-90.
[12]王玉凤,张淑芹.财政政策冲击对社会福利及宏观经济的动态影响——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2015,(4):11-19.
[13]张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[14]Forni L,Monteforte L,Sessa L.The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy:Estimates for The Euro Area[J].Journal of Public Economics,2009,93(3):559-585.
[15]郭庆旺,吕冰洋.中国税收负担的综合分析[J].财经问题研究,2010,(12):3-10.
[16]朱军.开放经济中的财政政策规则——基于中国宏观经济数据的DSGE模型[J].财经研究,2013,(3):135-144.
[17]Philippopoulos A,Varthalitis P,Vassilatos V.On The Optimal Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Actions[R].2012.
[18]潘彬,等.政府购买与居民消费的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2006,(5):68-76.
[19]李春吉,孟晓宏.中国经济波动——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析[J].经济研究,2006,(10):72-82.
(1)国债余额财政部仅公布了2008~2015年的数据,我们利用上一年度的赤字及本年度的国债余额倒推上一年度的国债余额,这一模拟数据表现尚可,与实际数据的误差大多在1%以内。
[2]Mc Grattan E.R.The Macroeconomic Effects of Distortionary Taxation[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,33(3):573-601.
[3]黄赜琳.中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应——一个基于三部分RBC模型的实证分析[J].经济研究,2005,(6):4-17.
[4]Leeper E M,etc.Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States[J].Journal of Econometrics,2010,156(2):304-321.
[5]肖尧,牛永青.财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用[J].统计研究,2014,(4):51-56.
[6]王文甫.价格粘性、流动性约束与中国财政政策宏观效应——动态新凯恩斯主义视角[J].管理世界,2010,(9):11-25.
[7]张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果——基于DSGE分析[J].经济研究,2013,(1):41-53.
[8]罗英,聂鹏.后危机时代中国财政政策的动态效应分析——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟[J].经济学家,2011,(4):53-62.
[9]卞志村,胡恒强.结构性减税、财政支出扩张与中国经济波动[J].金融评论,2016,(4):18-30.
[10]黄赜琳,朱保华.中国的实际经济周期与税收政策效应[J].经济研究,2015,(3):4-17.
[11]杨灿明,詹新宇.中国宏观税负政策偏向的经济波动效应[J].中国社会科学,2016,(4):71-90.
[12]王玉凤,张淑芹.财政政策冲击对社会福利及宏观经济的动态影响——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2015,(4):11-19.
[13]张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[14]Forni L,Monteforte L,Sessa L.The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy:Estimates for The Euro Area[J].Journal of Public Economics,2009,93(3):559-585.
[15]郭庆旺,吕冰洋.中国税收负担的综合分析[J].财经问题研究,2010,(12):3-10.
[16]朱军.开放经济中的财政政策规则——基于中国宏观经济数据的DSGE模型[J].财经研究,2013,(3):135-144.
[17]Philippopoulos A,Varthalitis P,Vassilatos V.On The Optimal Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Actions[R].2012.
[18]潘彬,等.政府购买与居民消费的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2006,(5):68-76.
[19]李春吉,孟晓宏.中国经济波动——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析[J].经济研究,2006,(10):72-82.
(1)国债余额财政部仅公布了2008~2015年的数据,我们利用上一年度的赤字及本年度的国债余额倒推上一年度的国债余额,这一模拟数据表现尚可,与实际数据的误差大多在1%以内。