2007-2015年湖南省水资源安全状态与短板要素甄别
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摘要
根据水资源安全内涵,构建湖南省水资源安全评价指标体系,采用水资源安全综合指数辨识2007-2015年湖南省水资源安全状态;根据短板要素理论,构建湖南省水资源安全评价体系多木桶模型,采用均衡度指标度量各桶片(指标)的长度差异,将指标分为优势要素、限制性要素和短板要素,辨识系统短板。从纵向(年际)和横向(指标)比较分析湖南省水资源安全现状与发展趋势。结果表明:(1)湖南省水资源安全系统,2011年为较不安全状态,2015年为较安全状态,其余年份为临界安全状态,2007-2015年间湖南省水资源安全呈现前期形势较为严峻、后期矛盾缓和的特点;(2)绘制湖南省水资源安全短板要素图,甄别出防洪治涝形势严峻、废水及有机污染物排放量较多和工农业及生活用水量较大是当前影响湖南省水资源安全的主要短板要素。
First,based on the connotation of water resources security,we built an evaluation index system for water resources security of Hunan province,and determined the water resources security state during 2007-2015 with the integral index of water resources security.Second,we built a multi-bucket model for the evaluation system based on the short-board factors theory,and measured the length difference between bucket staves(indexes)with the "equilibrium degree" index.The indexes were divided into dominant factors,restrictive factors,and short-board factors.Then we compared and analyzed the status quo and development trend of water resources security of Hunan province from longitudinal(interannual)and lateral(index-based)perspectives.The results indicated:(1)The water resources security system of Hunan province was in a somewhat unsafe state in2011,and was in a somewhat safe state in 2015,and was in a critically safe state in the other years.The water resources security of Hunan province during 2007-2015 was in a severe situation in the earlier stage and it eased up in the later stage.(2)We drew a short-board factors diagram of water resources security of Hunan province,and found that the main short-board factors were severe flood control situation,large amounts of waste water and organic pollutants emissions,and large consumption of water for industrial,agricultural,and domestic use.
First,based on the connotation of water resources security,we built an evaluation index system for water resources security of Hunan province,and determined the water resources security state during 2007-2015 with the integral index of water resources security.Second,we built a multi-bucket model for the evaluation system based on the short-board factors theory,and measured the length difference between bucket staves(indexes)with the "equilibrium degree" index.The indexes were divided into dominant factors,restrictive factors,and short-board factors.Then we compared and analyzed the status quo and development trend of water resources security of Hunan province from longitudinal(interannual)and lateral(index-based)perspectives.The results indicated:(1)The water resources security system of Hunan province was in a somewhat unsafe state in2011,and was in a somewhat safe state in 2015,and was in a critically safe state in the other years.The water resources security of Hunan province during 2007-2015 was in a severe situation in the earlier stage and it eased up in the later stage.(2)We drew a short-board factors diagram of water resources security of Hunan province,and found that the main short-board factors were severe flood control situation,large amounts of waste water and organic pollutants emissions,and large consumption of water for industrial,agricultural,and domestic use.
引文
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[5]贡力,靳春玲.基于水贫困指数的城市水安全评价研究[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(6):84-90.(GONG L,JIN C L.Urban water security evaluation system based on water poverty index,China[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(6):84-90.(in Chinese))
[6]乔旭宁,杨娅琳,杨永菊,等.基于DPSIR模型与Theil系数的河南省可持续发展评价[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(1):18-22,28.(QIAO X N,YANG Y L,YANG Y G,et al.Applying DPSIR model and Theil coefficient to assess sustainable development in Henan province,China[J].Areal Research and Development,2017,36(1):18-22,28.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2017.01.004.
[7]邵骏,欧应钧,陈金凤,等.基于水贫乏指数的长江流域水资源安全评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(6):889-894.(SHAO J,OU Y G,CHEN J F,et al.Water resources security of Yangtze river basin based on water poverty index,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(6):889-894.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201606004.
[8]李永,朱明,李嘉.基于vague集相似度量模型的城市水安全应急保障能力评价[J].水利学报,2009,40(5):608-613.(LI Y,ZHU M,LI J.Evaluation method of urban water security assurance capability for emergencyrescue based on similarity measure of Vague sets,China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(5):608-613.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2009.05.015.
[9]金菊良,吴开亚,魏一鸣.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.(JIN J L,WU K Y,WEIY M.Connection number based assessment model for watershed water security,China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 2008,39(4):401-409.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2008.04.003.
[10]申毅荣,解建仓.基于熵权和TOPSIS的水安全模糊物元评价模型研究及其应用[J].系统工程,2014,32(7):143-148.(SHEN Y R,XIE J C.Fuzzy matter-element model for evaluating of water safety based on entropy weight and TOPSISand application,China[J].Systems Engineering,2014,32(7):143-148.(in Chinese))
[11]江红,杨小柳.基于熵权的亚太地区水安全评价[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):373-380.(JIANG H,YANG X L.Entropy weight-based water security assessment in Asia-Pacific,China[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):373-380.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.03.012.
[12]ADEWALE G,ABDALLAH D.An investigation of the feasibility of proposed solutions for water sustainability and security in water-stressed environment[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017(165):721-733.DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.120
[13]窦明,张华侨,王偶.基于发展模式驱动的水安全调控模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(9):2442-2448.(DOUM,ZHANG H Q,WANG O.Research on water security regulation modelling driven by development mode,China[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2015,35(9):2442-2448.(in Chinese))DOI:10.12011/1000-6788(2015)9-2442.
[14]邵东国,杨丰顺,刘玉龙,等.城市水安全指数及其评价标准[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(1):122-126.(SHAO DG,YANG F S,LIU Y L,et al.Urban water security index and its evaluation criterion,China[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science And Technology,2013,11(1):122-126.(in Chinese))
[15]陆建忠,崔肖林,陈晓玲.基于综合指数法的鄱阳湖流域水资源安全评价研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):212-218.(LU J Z,CUI X L,CHEN X L.Assessment of water resource security in Poyang lake watershed based on composite index method,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(2):212-218.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201502005.
[16]胡敬涛,金峰,申庆元,等.城市水资源安全综合评价体系研究---以山东省淄博市为例[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(3):192-197.(HU J T,JIN F,SHEN Q Y.On a comprehensive evaluation system of urban water safety-a case study of Zibo City,Shandong,China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2016,16(3):192-197.(in Chinese))
[17]余灏哲,韩美.基于模糊物元模型的山东省水资源安全TOPSIS评价[J].安全与环境工程,2015,22(6):1-6.(YU H Z,HANM.TOPSIS evaluation of water resource security in Shandong province based on fuzzy matter-element model,China[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2015,22(6):1-6.(in Chinese))
[18]吴宜进,廖乐,袁绪英.基于信息熵的武汉市城市生态系统演化分析研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(1):21-26.(WU YJ,LIAO L,YUAN X Y.Evolution of Wuhan urban complex ecosystem based on information entropy,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze basin,2013,22(1):21-26.(in Chinese))
[19]牛东晓,宋宗耘.基于熵值法和物元可拓模型的核电站安全运行状态评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(5):25-29.(NIUD X,SONG Z Y.Evaluation model for the nuclear power plant safety operation based on the matter-element and entropy method,China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(5):25-29.(in Chinese))
[20]周伟,马书红.基于木桶理论的公路交通与与经济发展适应性分析[J].中国公路学报,2003,16(3):77-82.(ZHOU W,MA SH.Adaptability study based on the barrel theory about highway transportation and economics,China[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2003,16(3):77-82.(in Chinese))
[21]信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.(XIN G X,YANG C X,YANG Q Y,et al.Postevaluation of well-facilitied capital farmland construction based on entropy weight method and improved TOPSIS model,China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(1):238-249.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.01.033.
[22]张凤太,苏维词.基于均方差-TOPSIS模型的贵州水生态安全评价研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(9):88-92.(ZHANGF T,SU W C.Ecological security of water in Guizhou based on mean square deviation-TOPSIS model,China[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2016,35(9):88-92.(in Chinese))
[23]邹新波,夏卫生,黄道友.基于密切值法的湖南省水资源利用现状评价[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(1):165-168,255.(ZOU X B,XIA W S,HUANG D Y.Evaluation on water resource use status in Hunan province:osculating value method,China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,31(1):165-168,255.(in Chinese))
[24]李伟霄,翁翎燕.基于TOPSIS的城市经济与环境协调发展评价---以上海市为例[J].地球与环境,2014,42(4):550-554.(LI W X,WONG L Y.Evaluation of balanced development of urban economy and environment based on TOPSIS-a case study in Shanghai city,China[J].Earth and Environment,2014,42(4):550-554.(in Chinese))
[25]朱凤武,高永年,鲍桂叶.江苏沿海地区土地综合承载力指标预警与短板要素识别[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(Z1):15-22.(ZHU F W,GAO Y N,BAO G Y.Determination of short board factors and early warning of land comprehensive carrying capacity in the coastal areas of Jiangsu province,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze basin,2015,24(Z1):15-22.(in Chinese))
[2]陈筠婷,徐建刚,许有朋.非传统安全视角下的城市水安全概念辨析[J].水科学进展,2015,26(3):443-450.(CHEN J T,XU JG,XU Y P.Conceptual discrimination on the urban water security under the perspective of non-traditional security,China[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(3):443-450.(in Chinese))
[3]HENRY J F P,PHILIP A L,WILLIAM E S.Diagnosing water security in the rural North with an environmental security framework[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2017(199):91-98.DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.04.088.
[4]闻豪,倪福全,邓玉,等.四川省区域经济发展与水安全时空格局的耦合研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):33-42.(WEN H,NI F Q,DENG Y,et al.Investigation on the spatial-temporal coupling of regional economic development and water security in Sichuan province,China[J].Journal of north China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science edition),2017,38(4):33-42.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2017.04.005.
[5]贡力,靳春玲.基于水贫困指数的城市水安全评价研究[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(6):84-90.(GONG L,JIN C L.Urban water security evaluation system based on water poverty index,China[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(6):84-90.(in Chinese))
[6]乔旭宁,杨娅琳,杨永菊,等.基于DPSIR模型与Theil系数的河南省可持续发展评价[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(1):18-22,28.(QIAO X N,YANG Y L,YANG Y G,et al.Applying DPSIR model and Theil coefficient to assess sustainable development in Henan province,China[J].Areal Research and Development,2017,36(1):18-22,28.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2017.01.004.
[7]邵骏,欧应钧,陈金凤,等.基于水贫乏指数的长江流域水资源安全评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(6):889-894.(SHAO J,OU Y G,CHEN J F,et al.Water resources security of Yangtze river basin based on water poverty index,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(6):889-894.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201606004.
[8]李永,朱明,李嘉.基于vague集相似度量模型的城市水安全应急保障能力评价[J].水利学报,2009,40(5):608-613.(LI Y,ZHU M,LI J.Evaluation method of urban water security assurance capability for emergencyrescue based on similarity measure of Vague sets,China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(5):608-613.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2009.05.015.
[9]金菊良,吴开亚,魏一鸣.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.(JIN J L,WU K Y,WEIY M.Connection number based assessment model for watershed water security,China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 2008,39(4):401-409.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2008.04.003.
[10]申毅荣,解建仓.基于熵权和TOPSIS的水安全模糊物元评价模型研究及其应用[J].系统工程,2014,32(7):143-148.(SHEN Y R,XIE J C.Fuzzy matter-element model for evaluating of water safety based on entropy weight and TOPSISand application,China[J].Systems Engineering,2014,32(7):143-148.(in Chinese))
[11]江红,杨小柳.基于熵权的亚太地区水安全评价[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):373-380.(JIANG H,YANG X L.Entropy weight-based water security assessment in Asia-Pacific,China[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):373-380.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.03.012.
[12]ADEWALE G,ABDALLAH D.An investigation of the feasibility of proposed solutions for water sustainability and security in water-stressed environment[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017(165):721-733.DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.120
[13]窦明,张华侨,王偶.基于发展模式驱动的水安全调控模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(9):2442-2448.(DOUM,ZHANG H Q,WANG O.Research on water security regulation modelling driven by development mode,China[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2015,35(9):2442-2448.(in Chinese))DOI:10.12011/1000-6788(2015)9-2442.
[14]邵东国,杨丰顺,刘玉龙,等.城市水安全指数及其评价标准[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(1):122-126.(SHAO DG,YANG F S,LIU Y L,et al.Urban water security index and its evaluation criterion,China[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science And Technology,2013,11(1):122-126.(in Chinese))
[15]陆建忠,崔肖林,陈晓玲.基于综合指数法的鄱阳湖流域水资源安全评价研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):212-218.(LU J Z,CUI X L,CHEN X L.Assessment of water resource security in Poyang lake watershed based on composite index method,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(2):212-218.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201502005.
[16]胡敬涛,金峰,申庆元,等.城市水资源安全综合评价体系研究---以山东省淄博市为例[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(3):192-197.(HU J T,JIN F,SHEN Q Y.On a comprehensive evaluation system of urban water safety-a case study of Zibo City,Shandong,China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2016,16(3):192-197.(in Chinese))
[17]余灏哲,韩美.基于模糊物元模型的山东省水资源安全TOPSIS评价[J].安全与环境工程,2015,22(6):1-6.(YU H Z,HANM.TOPSIS evaluation of water resource security in Shandong province based on fuzzy matter-element model,China[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2015,22(6):1-6.(in Chinese))
[18]吴宜进,廖乐,袁绪英.基于信息熵的武汉市城市生态系统演化分析研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(1):21-26.(WU YJ,LIAO L,YUAN X Y.Evolution of Wuhan urban complex ecosystem based on information entropy,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze basin,2013,22(1):21-26.(in Chinese))
[19]牛东晓,宋宗耘.基于熵值法和物元可拓模型的核电站安全运行状态评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(5):25-29.(NIUD X,SONG Z Y.Evaluation model for the nuclear power plant safety operation based on the matter-element and entropy method,China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(5):25-29.(in Chinese))
[20]周伟,马书红.基于木桶理论的公路交通与与经济发展适应性分析[J].中国公路学报,2003,16(3):77-82.(ZHOU W,MA SH.Adaptability study based on the barrel theory about highway transportation and economics,China[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2003,16(3):77-82.(in Chinese))
[21]信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.(XIN G X,YANG C X,YANG Q Y,et al.Postevaluation of well-facilitied capital farmland construction based on entropy weight method and improved TOPSIS model,China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(1):238-249.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.01.033.
[22]张凤太,苏维词.基于均方差-TOPSIS模型的贵州水生态安全评价研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(9):88-92.(ZHANGF T,SU W C.Ecological security of water in Guizhou based on mean square deviation-TOPSIS model,China[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2016,35(9):88-92.(in Chinese))
[23]邹新波,夏卫生,黄道友.基于密切值法的湖南省水资源利用现状评价[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(1):165-168,255.(ZOU X B,XIA W S,HUANG D Y.Evaluation on water resource use status in Hunan province:osculating value method,China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,31(1):165-168,255.(in Chinese))
[24]李伟霄,翁翎燕.基于TOPSIS的城市经济与环境协调发展评价---以上海市为例[J].地球与环境,2014,42(4):550-554.(LI W X,WONG L Y.Evaluation of balanced development of urban economy and environment based on TOPSIS-a case study in Shanghai city,China[J].Earth and Environment,2014,42(4):550-554.(in Chinese))
[25]朱凤武,高永年,鲍桂叶.江苏沿海地区土地综合承载力指标预警与短板要素识别[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(Z1):15-22.(ZHU F W,GAO Y N,BAO G Y.Determination of short board factors and early warning of land comprehensive carrying capacity in the coastal areas of Jiangsu province,China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze basin,2015,24(Z1):15-22.(in Chinese))