基于效用最大化的PPP项目社会资本社会风险决策行为研究
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摘要
本文基于期望效用理论构建了社会资本在面临PPP项目社会风险决策时的数学模型.文章将其决策行为分为正向行为和负向行为.通过计算分析得出社会资本的社会风险决策共存在四种情形,并且归纳出在完全由社会资本承担社会风险损失的情况下其必然会选择负向行为.对此,文章提出了四种情形下相应的补偿机制,通过该机制可确保社会资本采取正向行为,提升PPP项目社会效益.并进一步分析了折现率与PPP合同期长短分别对社会风险决策行为的不同影响.研究最终表明社会资本对长短期利益的重视程度是正负向决策行为选择的关键因素,"伙伴关系"与"风险合理分担"是促进正向行为选择的有效路径.
Based on expected utility theory, the paper established a decision model for private sectors under social risks in PPP projects,in which private sectors' decision-making behavior was divided into positive one and negative one. Through discussion analysis, the paper summarized private sectors' social risk decision-making into four scenarios, where the private sectors must choose negative behavior in the case that private sectors fully bear the costs to deal with social risk. To resolve the problem, corresponding compensation mechanisms were put forward to ensure the positive behavior can be determined by private sectors under the four scenarios and improve the social efficiency of the PPP projects. In addition, the influence of long-term and short-term benefits as well as the contract period of PPP projects on social risk decision-making behavior was discussed in the paper. The conclusion can be drawn that the private sectors' attitudes to the long-term and short-term benefits are critical to determine the decision-making behavior. Moreover, partnerships and reasonable risk sharing is the effective approach to determine the positive behavior.
Based on expected utility theory, the paper established a decision model for private sectors under social risks in PPP projects,in which private sectors' decision-making behavior was divided into positive one and negative one. Through discussion analysis, the paper summarized private sectors' social risk decision-making into four scenarios, where the private sectors must choose negative behavior in the case that private sectors fully bear the costs to deal with social risk. To resolve the problem, corresponding compensation mechanisms were put forward to ensure the positive behavior can be determined by private sectors under the four scenarios and improve the social efficiency of the PPP projects. In addition, the influence of long-term and short-term benefits as well as the contract period of PPP projects on social risk decision-making behavior was discussed in the paper. The conclusion can be drawn that the private sectors' attitudes to the long-term and short-term benefits are critical to determine the decision-making behavior. Moreover, partnerships and reasonable risk sharing is the effective approach to determine the positive behavior.
引文
[1]赵晔.我国PPP项目失败案例分析及风险防范[J].地方财政研究,2015(6):52-56.
[2] Cheung E, Chan A P C. Risk factors of public-private partnership projects in China:Comparison between the water, power, and transportation sectors[J]. Journal of Urban Planning&Development, 2011, 137(4):409-415.
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[4](美)E. S.萨瓦斯.民营化与公私部门的伙伴关系[M].周志忍,等译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.
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[6]郭秀云.重大项目评价中应加入“社会稳定风险评估”[J].中国科技论坛,2012(11):18-22.Guo X Y. Adding"social stability risk assessment"into assessment of important project[J]. Forum on Science&Technology in China, 2012(11):18-22.
[7]陈星光.PPP项目融资模式下的委托代理博弈模型[J].科技与经济,2013(2):56-60.Chen X G. Principal-agent game model in PPP financing mode[J]. Science&Technology and Economy, 2013(2):56-60.
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[19]吴贤国,王瑞,陈跃庆,等.城市大型交通工程建设项目社会风险评价研究[J].土木工程与管理学报,2009, 26(4):25-28.Wu X G, Wang R, Chen Y Q, et al. Social risk management of large scale urban traffic construction project[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2009, 26(4):25-28.
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[21] Cheung E, Chan A P C. Risk factors of public-private partnership projects in China:Comparison between the Water, Power, and Transportation Sectors[J]. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 2011, 137(4):409-415.
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[23]杜亚灵,闫鹏.PPP项目缔约风险控制框架研究——基于信任提升与维持的视角[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013(6):880-886.Du Y L, Yan P. Research on the controlling framework contracting risk in PPP projects:Based on the promotion and maintenance of trust[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Social Science Edition), 2013(6):880-886.
[24]尹贻林,尹晓璐.北京地铁4号线PPP建设模式风险分担研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2013(10):6-11.Yin Y L, Yin X L. Study on risk share in PPP construction mode of Beijing Metro Line 4[J]. Railway Transport and Economy, 2013(10):6-11.
[25] Ng S T, Wong J M W, Wong K K W. A public private people partnerships(P4)process framework for infrastructure development in Hong Kong[J]. Cities, 2013, 31:370-381.
[26]李杰,王丽娜,王磊.我国政府公共服务民营化的利弊分析[J].大众文艺:理论,2009(6):28-29.
[27]张汝立,陈书洁.西方发达国家政府购买社会公共服务的经验和教训[J].中国行政管理,2010(11):98-102.Zhang R L, Chen S J. Government purchase of public social service contracting:Experience and lessons from Western Developed Countries[J]. Chinese Public Administration, 2010(11):98-102.
[28]谢煜,李建华.准公共物品民营化的风险分析[J].行政论坛,2006(6):62-65.
[29]王茂涛,冯伟.公用事业民营化的社会风险及防范[J].中州学刊,2013(10):5-10.
[30] Oleynik A. Public private partnership as a mechanism to reduce social risks[J]. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Economics, 2015, 3(168):67-72.
[31] Jones N, Clark J, Tripidaki G. Social risk assessment and social capital:A significant parameter for the formation of climate change policies[J]. Social Science Journal, 2012, 49(1):33-41.
[32]栾大鹏,王建.期望效用理论的发展历程及最新动态[J].天府新论,2012(5):36-41·
[33]李新光,胡日东,陈家干.中国居民投资偏好变化的实证分析——基于期望效用与二阶随机占优理论[J].经济经纬,2014,31(6):137-142.Li X G, Hu R D, Chen J G. An empirical analysis on the change of Chinese household investment preferences-Based on expected utility and the second stochastic dominance theory[J]. Economic Survey, 2014, 31(6):137-142.
[34]陈凯,黄滋才.基于期望效用与前景理论的行为决策精算定价模型[J].保险研究,2017(1):56-67.
[35] Buchholz W, Schymura M. Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks[J]. Ecological Economics,2010, 77(2):234-239.
[36]姜鑫,王长春,杜正军,等.基于博弈网的军事决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(7):1387-1393.Jiang X, Wang C C, Du Z J, et al. Military decision-making method based on network of games[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2011,31(7):1387-1393.
[37]董雅丽,陈怀超.基于顾客忠诚的品牌资产提升模型[J].软科学,2006, 20(6):22-26.Dong Y L, Chen H C. Brand assets promotion model based on client loyalty[J]. Soft Science, 2006, 20(6):22-26.
[38]刘新军,刘永立.个体私营煤矿事故瞒报的期望效用理论分析[J].煤矿安全,2007, 38(1):72-74.
[39]苑宏宪,王雪青.基于前景理论的注册建造师执业行为监管演化博弈分析——基于承包商视角[J].软科学,2014(4):140-144.Yuan H X, Wang X Q. Evolutionary game analysis on professional misconduct governance of registered constructor based on prospect theory—From the view of general contractor[J]. Soft Science, 2014(4):140-144.
[40]王书灏,王卓甫.私人投资者在基础设施PPP项目中的若干问题研究[J].建筑经济,2009(12):65-67.
[41]王首元,孔淑红.新行为经济学理论:对期望效用理论和前景理论的一个延伸[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2012(4):17-24.Wang S Y, Kong S H. Advanced behavioral economics theory—An extension of expected utility theory and prospect theory[J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Social Sciences), 2012(4):17-24.
[42]李启明,申立银.风险管理中的风险效应-行为决策模型及分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(10):1-8.Li Q M, Shen L Y. Decision-making model incorporating risk behavior under project risk management[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2001,21(10):1-8.
[43] Weber E U, Blais A R, Betz N E. A domain-specific risk-attitude scale:Measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2002, 15(4):263-290.
[44]任玉珑,杨云莹,陆位忠.基于效用最大化的承包商行为分析及规范对策[J].工业工程,2007(6):27-31.Ren Y L, Yang Y Y, Lu W Z. On contractor's behavior and countermeasure normalization based on utility maximization[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2007(6):27-31.
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[2] Cheung E, Chan A P C. Risk factors of public-private partnership projects in China:Comparison between the water, power, and transportation sectors[J]. Journal of Urban Planning&Development, 2011, 137(4):409-415.
[3]孙慧,范志清,石烨.BOT公路排他性条件对定价及社会效益影响研究[J].系统工程学报,2011, 26(1):68-73.Sun H, Fan Z Q, Shi Y. Research on effect of exclusive condition on pricing and social welfare of road under BOT scheme[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering,2011,26(1):68-73.
[4](美)E. S.萨瓦斯.民营化与公私部门的伙伴关系[M].周志忍,等译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[5]赵晓晓,钮钦.基于SIR模型的重大水利工程建设的社会风险扩散路径研究[J].工程管理学报,2014(1):46-50.Zhao X X, Niu Q. Social risk diffusion path research on the major water conservancy project'constructing based on SIR model[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2014(1):46-50.
[6]郭秀云.重大项目评价中应加入“社会稳定风险评估”[J].中国科技论坛,2012(11):18-22.Guo X Y. Adding"social stability risk assessment"into assessment of important project[J]. Forum on Science&Technology in China, 2012(11):18-22.
[7]陈星光.PPP项目融资模式下的委托代理博弈模型[J].科技与经济,2013(2):56-60.Chen X G. Principal-agent game model in PPP financing mode[J]. Science&Technology and Economy, 2013(2):56-60.
[8] Beck U. Risk society:Towards a new modernity[M]. London:SAGE Publications, 1992.
[9] Giddens A. Runaway world:How globalization is reshaping our lives[J]. Profile Books, 2002, 46(2):170-176.
[10] Luhmann N. Risk:A society theory[M]. New York:Aldine de Gruyter, 1993.
[11] Kemp D, Worden S, Owen J R. Differentiated social risk:Rebound dynamics and sustainability performance in mining[J]. Resources Policy, 2016, 50:19-26.
[12]林义.强化我国社会风险管理的政策思路[J].经济社会体制比较,2002(6):16-19.
[13]宋林飞.中国社会风险预警系统的设计与运行[J].东南大学学报(社会科学版),1999, 1(1):69-76.
[14]冯必扬.社会风险:视角、内涵与成因[J].天津社会科学,2004(2):73-77.
[15]何枫,倪明胜.中国转型期的社会风险分析及其规避——“泰坦尼克定律”的解释框架[J].武汉科技大学学报(社会科学版),2008(2):50-54.He F, Ni M S. Analysis and avoidance of social risks in China in the transition period based on Titanic's law[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition), 2008(2):50-54.
[16] Zimmer K, Fr(o|¨)hling M, Breun P, et al. Assessing social risks of global supply chains:A quantitative analytical approach and its application to supplier selection in the German automotive industry[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 149:96-109.
[17]张婕,王慧敏,吕周洋,等.南水北调工程运行期社会风险及管理模式探讨[J].水利经济,2009, 27(4):47-50.Zhang J, Wang H M, Lii Z Y, et al. Social risk and management modes of South-to-North Water Transfer Project during its operation period[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 2009, 27(4):47-50.
[18]何孝贵.铁路工程项目前期和实施阶段社会评价社会风险因素探讨[J].建筑经济,2005(8):25-27.
[19]吴贤国,王瑞,陈跃庆,等.城市大型交通工程建设项目社会风险评价研究[J].土木工程与管理学报,2009, 26(4):25-28.Wu X G, Wang R, Chen Y Q, et al. Social risk management of large scale urban traffic construction project[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2009, 26(4):25-28.
[20]张辉,唐明杰,刘尚亮.重点建设项目社会稳定风险评估与管理模式研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2012, 8(增刊2):1723-1727.Zhang H,Tang M J,Liu S L. Research on organization model of social stability risks evaluation and management in key construction project[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2012, 8(Supp2):1723-1727.
[21] Cheung E, Chan A P C. Risk factors of public-private partnership projects in China:Comparison between the Water, Power, and Transportation Sectors[J]. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 2011, 137(4):409-415.
[22]叶晓甦,徐春梅.我国公共项目公私合作(PPP)模式研究述评[J].软科学,2013(6):6-9.Ye X S, Xu C M. Review and research on PPP pattern in China[J]. Soft Science, 2013(6):6-9.
[23]杜亚灵,闫鹏.PPP项目缔约风险控制框架研究——基于信任提升与维持的视角[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013(6):880-886.Du Y L, Yan P. Research on the controlling framework contracting risk in PPP projects:Based on the promotion and maintenance of trust[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Social Science Edition), 2013(6):880-886.
[24]尹贻林,尹晓璐.北京地铁4号线PPP建设模式风险分担研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2013(10):6-11.Yin Y L, Yin X L. Study on risk share in PPP construction mode of Beijing Metro Line 4[J]. Railway Transport and Economy, 2013(10):6-11.
[25] Ng S T, Wong J M W, Wong K K W. A public private people partnerships(P4)process framework for infrastructure development in Hong Kong[J]. Cities, 2013, 31:370-381.
[26]李杰,王丽娜,王磊.我国政府公共服务民营化的利弊分析[J].大众文艺:理论,2009(6):28-29.
[27]张汝立,陈书洁.西方发达国家政府购买社会公共服务的经验和教训[J].中国行政管理,2010(11):98-102.Zhang R L, Chen S J. Government purchase of public social service contracting:Experience and lessons from Western Developed Countries[J]. Chinese Public Administration, 2010(11):98-102.
[28]谢煜,李建华.准公共物品民营化的风险分析[J].行政论坛,2006(6):62-65.
[29]王茂涛,冯伟.公用事业民营化的社会风险及防范[J].中州学刊,2013(10):5-10.
[30] Oleynik A. Public private partnership as a mechanism to reduce social risks[J]. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Economics, 2015, 3(168):67-72.
[31] Jones N, Clark J, Tripidaki G. Social risk assessment and social capital:A significant parameter for the formation of climate change policies[J]. Social Science Journal, 2012, 49(1):33-41.
[32]栾大鹏,王建.期望效用理论的发展历程及最新动态[J].天府新论,2012(5):36-41·
[33]李新光,胡日东,陈家干.中国居民投资偏好变化的实证分析——基于期望效用与二阶随机占优理论[J].经济经纬,2014,31(6):137-142.Li X G, Hu R D, Chen J G. An empirical analysis on the change of Chinese household investment preferences-Based on expected utility and the second stochastic dominance theory[J]. Economic Survey, 2014, 31(6):137-142.
[34]陈凯,黄滋才.基于期望效用与前景理论的行为决策精算定价模型[J].保险研究,2017(1):56-67.
[35] Buchholz W, Schymura M. Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks[J]. Ecological Economics,2010, 77(2):234-239.
[36]姜鑫,王长春,杜正军,等.基于博弈网的军事决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(7):1387-1393.Jiang X, Wang C C, Du Z J, et al. Military decision-making method based on network of games[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2011,31(7):1387-1393.
[37]董雅丽,陈怀超.基于顾客忠诚的品牌资产提升模型[J].软科学,2006, 20(6):22-26.Dong Y L, Chen H C. Brand assets promotion model based on client loyalty[J]. Soft Science, 2006, 20(6):22-26.
[38]刘新军,刘永立.个体私营煤矿事故瞒报的期望效用理论分析[J].煤矿安全,2007, 38(1):72-74.
[39]苑宏宪,王雪青.基于前景理论的注册建造师执业行为监管演化博弈分析——基于承包商视角[J].软科学,2014(4):140-144.Yuan H X, Wang X Q. Evolutionary game analysis on professional misconduct governance of registered constructor based on prospect theory—From the view of general contractor[J]. Soft Science, 2014(4):140-144.
[40]王书灏,王卓甫.私人投资者在基础设施PPP项目中的若干问题研究[J].建筑经济,2009(12):65-67.
[41]王首元,孔淑红.新行为经济学理论:对期望效用理论和前景理论的一个延伸[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2012(4):17-24.Wang S Y, Kong S H. Advanced behavioral economics theory—An extension of expected utility theory and prospect theory[J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Social Sciences), 2012(4):17-24.
[42]李启明,申立银.风险管理中的风险效应-行为决策模型及分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(10):1-8.Li Q M, Shen L Y. Decision-making model incorporating risk behavior under project risk management[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2001,21(10):1-8.
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