互联网促进我国对外贸易发展的机理分析:基于31个省市的面板数据实证
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摘要
文章探讨在国际贸易增速放缓,互联网在国际贸易领域的应用不断深入的背景下,互联网的发展对我国对外贸易总量和贸易结构的影响。文章指出互联网可以通过信息成本节约效应、溢出效应和异质性作用三个路径提升一国的对外贸易量。文章以中国31个省市2009～2016年的面板数据修正了引力模型,利用各省市互联网用户数作为代理变量,考察金融危机后互联网对我国对外贸易的影响。实证结果表明,互联网的发展促进了我国贸易的增长,且对我国的出口贸易量影响更为显著。进一步,文章考察了互联网对货物贸易结构的影响,分样本检验了互联网对货物贸易中初级品、中间品、资本品和消费品之间的影响差异。数据表明,在货物贸易的结构分析中,互联网对消费品进口的促进作用最为显著,互联网人数每增加1%,消费品进口额则增加1. 469%,这种显著的促进作用从某种意义上也显示出我国消费升级与国内有效供给不足之间的差距。
In the context of the slowing growth of international trade and the deepening application of Internet in international trade,this paper analyzes the impact of Internet on China's total foreign trade volume and trade structure. This paper points out that Internet can boost a country's foreign trade through three channels-information cost saving effect,spillover effect and heterogeneity effect.This paper modifies the gravity model and uses the number of Internet users in various provinces and cities as the Internet proxy variable. Based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2016,this paper investigates the influence of Internet on China's foreign trade volume after the financial crisis. The empirical results show that the development of the Internet promotes the growth of China's trade and has a more significant impact on China' s export trade volume. Furthermore,this paper investigates the influence of Internet on the structure of goods trade,and examines the differences in the influence of Internet on primary goods,intermediate goods,capital goods and consumer goods. The empirical results show that in the structural analysis of goods trade,the Internet plays the most significant role in promoting the import of consumer goods. For every 1% increase in the num-ber of Internet users,the import of consumer goods increases by 1. 469%. This remarkable promotion also shows the gap between the upgrading of China's consumption and the insufficient effective domestic supply in a sense.
In the context of the slowing growth of international trade and the deepening application of Internet in international trade,this paper analyzes the impact of Internet on China's total foreign trade volume and trade structure. This paper points out that Internet can boost a country's foreign trade through three channels-information cost saving effect,spillover effect and heterogeneity effect.This paper modifies the gravity model and uses the number of Internet users in various provinces and cities as the Internet proxy variable. Based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2016,this paper investigates the influence of Internet on China's foreign trade volume after the financial crisis. The empirical results show that the development of the Internet promotes the growth of China's trade and has a more significant impact on China' s export trade volume. Furthermore,this paper investigates the influence of Internet on the structure of goods trade,and examines the differences in the influence of Internet on primary goods,intermediate goods,capital goods and consumer goods. The empirical results show that in the structural analysis of goods trade,the Internet plays the most significant role in promoting the import of consumer goods. For every 1% increase in the num-ber of Internet users,the import of consumer goods increases by 1. 469%. This remarkable promotion also shows the gap between the upgrading of China's consumption and the insufficient effective domestic supply in a sense.
引文
[1] Bojnec,Ferto9 I.. Information and communication infrastructure development and agro-food trade[J]. Agricultural Economics,2011,57(2):64-70.
[2] Bojnec S,Ferto I.. Impact of the Internet on Manufacturing Trade[J]. Journal of Computer Information Systems,2009,50(1):124-132.
[3] Bernard A B,Eaton J,Jensen J B,et al.. Plants and Productivity in International Trade[J]. American Economic Review,2003,93(4):1268-1290.
[4] Choi C.. The effect of the Internet on service trade[J]. Economics Letters,2010,109(2):102-104.
[5] Dixon M,Glasson B. Electronic Payment Systems for International Trade,Western Australian Workshop on Information Systems Research.Murdoch University,1999.
[6] Ferro E.. Signaling and Technological Marketing Tools for Exporters[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2011.
[7] Freund C L,Weinhold D.. The effect of the Internet on international trade[J]. International Finance Discussion Papers,2000,62(1):171-189.
[8] Freund C,Weinhold D.. The Internet and International Trade in Services[J]. American Economic Review,2002,92(2):2433-2434.
[9] Hagsten E,Kotnik P.. ICT as facilitator of internationalisation in small-and medium-sized firms[J]. Small Business Economics,2016,48(2):1-16.
[10] Hamill J. The Internet and international marketing[J]. International Marketing Review,1997,14(5):300-323.
[11] Head K,Mayer T.. What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics/revue Canadienne Déconomique,2013,46(4):1196-1231.
[12] Kancs D.. Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model:Evidence from South Eastern Europe[J]. World Economy,2007,30(7):1139-1169.
[13] Melitz M J.. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Re-Allocation and Aggregate Industrial Productivity[J]. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[14] Molla A,Heeks R.. Exploring E-Commerce Benefits for Businesses in a Developing Country.[J]. Information Society,2007,23(2):95-108.
[15] Mossel E,Sly A,Tamuz O.. Strategic Learning and the Topology of Social Networks[J]. Econometrica,2015,83(5):1755-1794.
[16] Onyeiwu S.. Inter-Country Variations in Digital Technology in Africa:Evidence,Determinants,and Policy Applications[C]//World Institute for Development Economic Research(UNU-WIDER),2002.
[17] Pant Somendra,Cheng Hsu. Business on the Web:Strategies and Economics. Computer Networks and ISDN System,1996,28(7-11):1481-1492.
[18] ParéD.. Does This Site Deliver? B2B E-Commerce Services for Developing Countries[J]. Information Society,2003,19(2):123-134.
[19] Rauch J E.. Business and Social Networks in International Trade[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2001,39(4):1177-1203.
[20] Steinwender,Claudia. Real Effects of Information Frictions:When the States and the Kingdom Became United. American Economic Review,2018,108(3):657-696.
[21] Vijay K. Vemuri,Shahid Siddiqi. Impact of Commercialization of the Internet on International Trade:A Panel Study Using the Extended Gravity Model[J]. International Trade Journal,2009,23(4):458-484.
[22] Wallsten S. Regulation and Internet Use in Developing Countries[J]. Economic Development&Cultural Change,2005,53(2):501-523.
[23]何菊香,赖世茜,廖小伟.互联网对中国贸易的影响——基于29个省市的空间动态效应实证分析[J].北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):56-62.
[24]何勇,陈新光.互联网影响国际贸易的理论与实证研究[J].经济经纬,2015,32(4):54-60.
[25]江小涓.高度联通社会中的资源重组与服务业增长[J].经济研究,2017,52(3):4-17.
[26]李兵,李柔.互联网与企业出口:来自中国工业企业的微观经验证据[J].世界经济,2017,40(7):102-125.
[27]裴长洪,刘洪愧.中国怎样迈向贸易强国:一个新的分析思路[J].经济研究,2017,52(5):26-43.
[28]裴长洪.进口贸易结构与经济增长:规律与启示[J].经济研究,2013,48(7):4-19.
[29]钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定[J].经济研究,2010,45(1):65-79.
[30]钱学锋.企业异质性、贸易成本与中国出口增长的二元边际[J].管理世界,2008(9):48-56.
[31]茹玉骢,李燕.电子商务与中国企业出口行为:基于世界银行微观数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(12):3-13.
[32]盛丹,包群,王永进.基础设施对中国企业出口行为的影响:“集约边际”还是“扩展边际”[J].世界经济,2011,34(1):17-36.
[33]施炳展.互联网与国际贸易——基于双边双向网址链接数据的经验分析[J].经济研究,2016,51(5):172-187.
[34]石良平,汤蕴懿.中国跨境电子商务发展及政府监管问题研究——以小额跨境网购为例[J].上海经济研究,2014(9):3-18.
[35]王健,巨程晖.互联网时代的全球贸易新格局:普惠贸易趋势[J].国际贸易,2016(7):4-11.
[36]温珺,王健,尤宏兵.电子商务能否促进外贸增长——来自我国的证据[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):43-52.
[37]温珺,尤宏兵.互联网对中国外贸的影响研究[J].经济问题探索,2015(2):71-78.
[38]伊万·沙拉法诺夫,白树强. WTO视角下数字产品贸易合作机制研究——基于数字贸易发展现状及壁垒研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(2):149-163.
[39]岳云嵩,李兵,李柔.互联网会提高企业进口技术复杂度吗——基于倍差匹配的经验研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016(12):131-141.
[40]张奕芳.互联网内生贸易、网址链接数据与增长边际效应——理论模型及来自中国的经验证据[J].当代财经,2017(9):91-99.
[41]张永林.互联网、信息元与屏幕化市场——现代网络经济理论模型和应用[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):147-161.
[42]张永林.网络、信息池与时间复制——网络复制经济模型[J].经济研究,2014,49(2):171-182.
(1)数据来源:第41次中国互联网发展状况统计报告,互联网普及率的计算公式为:互联网普及率=互联网上网人。
(1)盛丹等(2011)指出,贸易固定成本高低将直接决定着企业是否选择出口,而贸易可变成本决定着企业的出口规模和产品的竞争力。
(1)资料来源:https://www. paypal. com。
(1)SITC9的商品构成为未分类的商品,本文不纳入贸易结构分类的统计范畴。
[2] Bojnec S,Ferto I.. Impact of the Internet on Manufacturing Trade[J]. Journal of Computer Information Systems,2009,50(1):124-132.
[3] Bernard A B,Eaton J,Jensen J B,et al.. Plants and Productivity in International Trade[J]. American Economic Review,2003,93(4):1268-1290.
[4] Choi C.. The effect of the Internet on service trade[J]. Economics Letters,2010,109(2):102-104.
[5] Dixon M,Glasson B. Electronic Payment Systems for International Trade,Western Australian Workshop on Information Systems Research.Murdoch University,1999.
[6] Ferro E.. Signaling and Technological Marketing Tools for Exporters[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2011.
[7] Freund C L,Weinhold D.. The effect of the Internet on international trade[J]. International Finance Discussion Papers,2000,62(1):171-189.
[8] Freund C,Weinhold D.. The Internet and International Trade in Services[J]. American Economic Review,2002,92(2):2433-2434.
[9] Hagsten E,Kotnik P.. ICT as facilitator of internationalisation in small-and medium-sized firms[J]. Small Business Economics,2016,48(2):1-16.
[10] Hamill J. The Internet and international marketing[J]. International Marketing Review,1997,14(5):300-323.
[11] Head K,Mayer T.. What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics/revue Canadienne Déconomique,2013,46(4):1196-1231.
[12] Kancs D.. Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model:Evidence from South Eastern Europe[J]. World Economy,2007,30(7):1139-1169.
[13] Melitz M J.. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Re-Allocation and Aggregate Industrial Productivity[J]. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[14] Molla A,Heeks R.. Exploring E-Commerce Benefits for Businesses in a Developing Country.[J]. Information Society,2007,23(2):95-108.
[15] Mossel E,Sly A,Tamuz O.. Strategic Learning and the Topology of Social Networks[J]. Econometrica,2015,83(5):1755-1794.
[16] Onyeiwu S.. Inter-Country Variations in Digital Technology in Africa:Evidence,Determinants,and Policy Applications[C]//World Institute for Development Economic Research(UNU-WIDER),2002.
[17] Pant Somendra,Cheng Hsu. Business on the Web:Strategies and Economics. Computer Networks and ISDN System,1996,28(7-11):1481-1492.
[18] ParéD.. Does This Site Deliver? B2B E-Commerce Services for Developing Countries[J]. Information Society,2003,19(2):123-134.
[19] Rauch J E.. Business and Social Networks in International Trade[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2001,39(4):1177-1203.
[20] Steinwender,Claudia. Real Effects of Information Frictions:When the States and the Kingdom Became United. American Economic Review,2018,108(3):657-696.
[21] Vijay K. Vemuri,Shahid Siddiqi. Impact of Commercialization of the Internet on International Trade:A Panel Study Using the Extended Gravity Model[J]. International Trade Journal,2009,23(4):458-484.
[22] Wallsten S. Regulation and Internet Use in Developing Countries[J]. Economic Development&Cultural Change,2005,53(2):501-523.
[23]何菊香,赖世茜,廖小伟.互联网对中国贸易的影响——基于29个省市的空间动态效应实证分析[J].北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):56-62.
[24]何勇,陈新光.互联网影响国际贸易的理论与实证研究[J].经济经纬,2015,32(4):54-60.
[25]江小涓.高度联通社会中的资源重组与服务业增长[J].经济研究,2017,52(3):4-17.
[26]李兵,李柔.互联网与企业出口:来自中国工业企业的微观经验证据[J].世界经济,2017,40(7):102-125.
[27]裴长洪,刘洪愧.中国怎样迈向贸易强国:一个新的分析思路[J].经济研究,2017,52(5):26-43.
[28]裴长洪.进口贸易结构与经济增长:规律与启示[J].经济研究,2013,48(7):4-19.
[29]钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定[J].经济研究,2010,45(1):65-79.
[30]钱学锋.企业异质性、贸易成本与中国出口增长的二元边际[J].管理世界,2008(9):48-56.
[31]茹玉骢,李燕.电子商务与中国企业出口行为:基于世界银行微观数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(12):3-13.
[32]盛丹,包群,王永进.基础设施对中国企业出口行为的影响:“集约边际”还是“扩展边际”[J].世界经济,2011,34(1):17-36.
[33]施炳展.互联网与国际贸易——基于双边双向网址链接数据的经验分析[J].经济研究,2016,51(5):172-187.
[34]石良平,汤蕴懿.中国跨境电子商务发展及政府监管问题研究——以小额跨境网购为例[J].上海经济研究,2014(9):3-18.
[35]王健,巨程晖.互联网时代的全球贸易新格局:普惠贸易趋势[J].国际贸易,2016(7):4-11.
[36]温珺,王健,尤宏兵.电子商务能否促进外贸增长——来自我国的证据[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):43-52.
[37]温珺,尤宏兵.互联网对中国外贸的影响研究[J].经济问题探索,2015(2):71-78.
[38]伊万·沙拉法诺夫,白树强. WTO视角下数字产品贸易合作机制研究——基于数字贸易发展现状及壁垒研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(2):149-163.
[39]岳云嵩,李兵,李柔.互联网会提高企业进口技术复杂度吗——基于倍差匹配的经验研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016(12):131-141.
[40]张奕芳.互联网内生贸易、网址链接数据与增长边际效应——理论模型及来自中国的经验证据[J].当代财经,2017(9):91-99.
[41]张永林.互联网、信息元与屏幕化市场——现代网络经济理论模型和应用[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):147-161.
[42]张永林.网络、信息池与时间复制——网络复制经济模型[J].经济研究,2014,49(2):171-182.
(1)数据来源:第41次中国互联网发展状况统计报告,互联网普及率的计算公式为:互联网普及率=互联网上网人。
(1)盛丹等(2011)指出,贸易固定成本高低将直接决定着企业是否选择出口,而贸易可变成本决定着企业的出口规模和产品的竞争力。
(1)资料来源:https://www. paypal. com。
(1)SITC9的商品构成为未分类的商品,本文不纳入贸易结构分类的统计范畴。