油砂开发经济性评价方法研究及应用
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摘要
随着我国油企进入加拿大油砂行业,如何降低油砂开发项目的风险并提高决策的科学性变得愈发重要。油砂开采的经济性作为投资决策的重要着力点,研究相应的经济评价方法也就有了十分重要的意义。本文较为全面的分析了露天开发油砂及蒸汽辅助重力卸油技术(SAGD)开发油砂的技术特点;选择折现现金流理论作为理论基础分别构建了露天开发与SAGD开发油砂项目经济评价模型,并对模型中涉及的收入、投资、成本等参数的估算方法进行了系统的研究;通过对新疆某油砂试采区的实际评价,验证了方法的可行性。该方法作为油砂开发项目经济评价的初步探索,将为加拿大和我国油砂开发项目的经济评价工作提供一定的参考依据。
With the continuous development of China's oil companies in Canada's oil sands,how to reduce the risk of oil sands development project and how to improve the scientific decision-making has become increasingly important. As an important focus of investment decisions,the research on corresponding economic evaluation methods of oil sands has very important meanings. This paper comprehensively analyzes the technical features of mining development of oil sands and Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage( SAGD) of oil sands. We select the discount cash flow theory as the theoretical basis and build the mining development and SAGD development economic evaluation model respectively,and meanwhile study parameters estimation method involved in the model systematically,such as income,investment and cost. Through the actual evaluation for certain oil sands test area of Xinjiang,the feasibility of the method is validated. As a desk study of economic evaluation for oil sands development project,the method could provide certain reference basis for economic evaluation for oil sands development in Canada and China.
With the continuous development of China's oil companies in Canada's oil sands,how to reduce the risk of oil sands development project and how to improve the scientific decision-making has become increasingly important. As an important focus of investment decisions,the research on corresponding economic evaluation methods of oil sands has very important meanings. This paper comprehensively analyzes the technical features of mining development of oil sands and Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage( SAGD) of oil sands. We select the discount cash flow theory as the theoretical basis and build the mining development and SAGD development economic evaluation model respectively,and meanwhile study parameters estimation method involved in the model systematically,such as income,investment and cost. Through the actual evaluation for certain oil sands test area of Xinjiang,the feasibility of the method is validated. As a desk study of economic evaluation for oil sands development project,the method could provide certain reference basis for economic evaluation for oil sands development in Canada and China.
引文
[1]李树元,王剑秋,钱家麟.世界油砂资源的研究与开发利用[J].中外能源,2011,16(5):10-23.
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[3]Schutte R.Research for a mining venture in the athabasca tar sands[C].Alberta:Petroleum Society of Canada,1974.
[4]Lyman T J,Piper E M,Riddell A W.Heavy oil mining technical and economic analysis[C].California:Society of Petroleum Engineers,1984.
[5]Gordon Willmon J.Requirements for major oil sands mining projects in canada[J].The journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,1992,31(7):49-54.
[6]Zhao L,Coates R.Numerical study and economic evaluation of SAGD wind-dwn methods[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,2003,42(1):53-56.
[7]Shin H,Polikar M.New economic indicator to evaluate SAGD performance[C].California:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2005.
[8]Shin H.A reservoir economic indicator to evaluate a SAGD Project[C].Alberta:Petroleum Society of Canada,2008.
[9]Frauenfeld T W,Jossy C,Bleile J.Experimental and economic analysis of the thermal solvent and hybrid solvent processes[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,2009,48(11):55-61.
[10]贾承造.油砂资源状况与储量评价方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2007.
[11]王屿涛,董蔚凯,靳涛,韦书铭.准噶尔盆地油砂地质评价及开采可行性[J].石油科技论坛,2006,(04):37-41.
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[16]郭振春.经济合理剥采比的计算方法和分析[J].现代矿业,2010,(10):116-117.
[17]李涛,管辉,缪拥正.露天矿经济合理剥采比的确定[J].山东煤炭科技,2010,(1):94-96.
[18]汪华,罗东坤.基于实物期权理论的油田开发方案优选模型[J].油气地质与采收率,2006,13(1):65-71.
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[20]王灵碧,罗东坤.基于价值贡献衡量的石油开发调整项目经济评价方法[J].技术经济,2007,(07):36-38.
[21]郭瑞,罗东坤,郭义远.油田调整改造项目经济性评价方法及其应用[J].技术经济,2015,(11):93-99.
[22]牛刚,纪佑军,刘莉,刘春泽,周本尧.蒸汽辅助重力卸油经济评价[J].油气田地面工程,2010,(11):8-10.
[23]王晓宇,罗东坤,郭瑞.油价-操作成本相关性对油气项目评价的影响[J].技术经济,2016,(02):88-93.
[24]Houlihan R,Williams K H.Recent enhancements in mined oil sands bitumen extraction technology[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,1987,26(1):25-27.
[25]罗东坤.油气勘探投资经济评价方法[J].油气地质与采收率,2002,01:21-23.
[26]郭瑞,罗东坤,李慧.中国页岩气开发环境成本计量研究及政策建议[J].环境工程,2016,(03):180-184.
[27]傅家骥,仝允桓.工业技术经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1996:15-67.
[2]石油时评组.摆脱石油对外依存度“恐慌症”[N].中国石油报,2014-02-25(002).
[3]Schutte R.Research for a mining venture in the athabasca tar sands[C].Alberta:Petroleum Society of Canada,1974.
[4]Lyman T J,Piper E M,Riddell A W.Heavy oil mining technical and economic analysis[C].California:Society of Petroleum Engineers,1984.
[5]Gordon Willmon J.Requirements for major oil sands mining projects in canada[J].The journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,1992,31(7):49-54.
[6]Zhao L,Coates R.Numerical study and economic evaluation of SAGD wind-dwn methods[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,2003,42(1):53-56.
[7]Shin H,Polikar M.New economic indicator to evaluate SAGD performance[C].California:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2005.
[8]Shin H.A reservoir economic indicator to evaluate a SAGD Project[C].Alberta:Petroleum Society of Canada,2008.
[9]Frauenfeld T W,Jossy C,Bleile J.Experimental and economic analysis of the thermal solvent and hybrid solvent processes[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,2009,48(11):55-61.
[10]贾承造.油砂资源状况与储量评价方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2007.
[11]王屿涛,董蔚凯,靳涛,韦书铭.准噶尔盆地油砂地质评价及开采可行性[J].石油科技论坛,2006,(04):37-41.
[12]刘虹强.新疆准噶尔盆地风城油砂矿床详细经济评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2009.
[13]尹秀玲,尹刚.加拿大油砂项目开发经济分析[J].国际经济合作,2012,(04):61-63.
[14]丁健春.加拿大油砂领域投资分析[J].国际石油经济,2012,(06):60-63.
[15]历永建.露天矿经济合理剥采比和最优开采深度的研究[D].昆明理工大学,2001.
[16]郭振春.经济合理剥采比的计算方法和分析[J].现代矿业,2010,(10):116-117.
[17]李涛,管辉,缪拥正.露天矿经济合理剥采比的确定[J].山东煤炭科技,2010,(1):94-96.
[18]汪华,罗东坤.基于实物期权理论的油田开发方案优选模型[J].油气地质与采收率,2006,13(1):65-71.
[19]杨雪雁,罗洪.油田开发经济评价及实物期权新方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2007.
[20]王灵碧,罗东坤.基于价值贡献衡量的石油开发调整项目经济评价方法[J].技术经济,2007,(07):36-38.
[21]郭瑞,罗东坤,郭义远.油田调整改造项目经济性评价方法及其应用[J].技术经济,2015,(11):93-99.
[22]牛刚,纪佑军,刘莉,刘春泽,周本尧.蒸汽辅助重力卸油经济评价[J].油气田地面工程,2010,(11):8-10.
[23]王晓宇,罗东坤,郭瑞.油价-操作成本相关性对油气项目评价的影响[J].技术经济,2016,(02):88-93.
[24]Houlihan R,Williams K H.Recent enhancements in mined oil sands bitumen extraction technology[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,1987,26(1):25-27.
[25]罗东坤.油气勘探投资经济评价方法[J].油气地质与采收率,2002,01:21-23.
[26]郭瑞,罗东坤,李慧.中国页岩气开发环境成本计量研究及政策建议[J].环境工程,2016,(03):180-184.
[27]傅家骥,仝允桓.工业技术经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1996:15-67.