山东省浅层地下水碘化物含量与甲状腺癌发病人数空间关系初探
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摘要
目的掌握山东省浅层地下水碘化物含量的空间分布特征,探究浅层地下水碘化物含量与甲状腺癌的关系,为地方性疾病的预防和碘盐长期供应普适性的研究提供依据。方法利用地统计与地理信息技术相结合的方法,以实际采样点为参考进行空间变异拟合,再通过普通克里金插值得到全省浅层地下水碘化物含量的空间分布;地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,简称GIS)空间叠加的方法直观展示浅层地下水碘化物含量与甲状腺癌患者的空间集聚关系,在对栅格化后的空间插值结果进行地理空间分区的基础上,利用统计学原理,求平均、数理统计、建立回归分析等,得到最适宜于研究两者之间关系的模型,利用统计产品与服务解决方案(Statistical Product and Service Solutions,简称SPSS),以碘化物含量为自变量,甲状腺癌患者的数目为因变量,进行相关性分析、建立散点图和函数模型,比较参数。结果山东省浅层地下水碘化物含量由西部的高碘区逐渐过渡到东部的适碘区;且碘化物含量分布与甲状腺癌患者分布情况趋于一致。含量高的区域,患者分布密集;碘化物含量与患者数量的相关性因子为0.816。结论浅层地下水碘化物含量在50μg/L以上的情况下,含量越高病患分布越为密集,浅层地下水碘化物含量与甲状腺癌具有很强的相关性。
Objectives To know well the spatial distribution of Iodide content in shallow groundwater in Shandong province,and to explore the relationship between iodide content in shallow groundwater and thyroid cancer,and to supply research bases for the prevention of endemic diseases and long-term supply of iodized salt. Methods Combining geostatistics and geographic information technology,fitting spatial variability with actual sample points reference,then using the ordinary Kriging interpolation to get the distribution of iodide contents in shallow groundwater in space. The method of spatial overlay in GIS is used to intuitively show the relationship between iodide in shallow groundwater and spatial aggregation of patients with thyroid cancer. Based on the spatial partition of the spatial interpolation result,the most suitable model to study the relationship between them was discovered,after rasterization by using statistical principle,seeking average,carrying out mathematical statistics,setting up regression analysis etc. Use SPSS to carry on the correlation analysis,establish scatter plot and function model with iodide content as the independent variable,the number of patients with thyroid cancer as dependent variable,and compare parameters. Results Iodide content of shallow groundwater in Shandong varies from the high iodide area in the west to the suitable iodide region in the east. The distribution of iodide content is consistent with the distribution of thyroid cancer patients: patient distribution is intensive in the high content area,the correlation factor between iodide content and the number of patients is 0.816. Conclusions When the iodide content in shallow groundwater is above 50 μg/L,the higher the content become the more intensive the patient distribution is,which is strongly correlated with thyroid cancer.
Objectives To know well the spatial distribution of Iodide content in shallow groundwater in Shandong province,and to explore the relationship between iodide content in shallow groundwater and thyroid cancer,and to supply research bases for the prevention of endemic diseases and long-term supply of iodized salt. Methods Combining geostatistics and geographic information technology,fitting spatial variability with actual sample points reference,then using the ordinary Kriging interpolation to get the distribution of iodide contents in shallow groundwater in space. The method of spatial overlay in GIS is used to intuitively show the relationship between iodide in shallow groundwater and spatial aggregation of patients with thyroid cancer. Based on the spatial partition of the spatial interpolation result,the most suitable model to study the relationship between them was discovered,after rasterization by using statistical principle,seeking average,carrying out mathematical statistics,setting up regression analysis etc. Use SPSS to carry on the correlation analysis,establish scatter plot and function model with iodide content as the independent variable,the number of patients with thyroid cancer as dependent variable,and compare parameters. Results Iodide content of shallow groundwater in Shandong varies from the high iodide area in the west to the suitable iodide region in the east. The distribution of iodide content is consistent with the distribution of thyroid cancer patients: patient distribution is intensive in the high content area,the correlation factor between iodide content and the number of patients is 0.816. Conclusions When the iodide content in shallow groundwater is above 50 μg/L,the higher the content become the more intensive the patient distribution is,which is strongly correlated with thyroid cancer.
引文
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[13]陈艳艳,蔡顺祥,刘建兵,等.湖沼型血吸虫病流行区气候因素与钉螺分布的空间回归分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(3):277-280.(In English:Chen YY,Cai SX,Liu JB,et al.Spatial regression analysis on climatic factors and snail distribution in marshland schistosomiasis transmission areas[J].Chin J Dis Control Prev,2015,19(3):277-280.)
[14]魏世丽,葛永慧.一元非线性回归两种不同模型的比较[J].统计与决策,2015(4):29-31.
[15]Panagopoulos T,Jesus J,Antunes MDC,et al.Analysis of spatial interpolation for optimising management of a salinized field cultivated with lettuce[J].Eur J Agron,2006,24(1):1-10.
[16]Yasrebi J,Saffari M,Fathi H,et al.Evaluation and comparison of ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting methods for prediction of spatial variability of some soil chemical parameters[J].Res J Biol Sci,2009,4(1):93-102.
[17]GB/T 19380-2003,水源性高碘地区和地方性高碘甲状腺肿病区的划定[S].(In English:GB/T 19380-2003 Determination and classification of the areas of high water iodine and the endemic areas of iodine excessgoiter[S].)
[18]郭晓尉,刘传蛟,翟丽屏,等.山东省黄河流域居民饮用水碘含量和水源类型及深度状况调查[J].中国地方病防治杂志,2012,27(5):3-6.(In English:Guo XW,Liu CJ,Zhai LP,et al.Study on the iodine content of drinking water and their resources and the depth of wells in the Yellow River valley in Shandong province[J].Chin J Control Endem Dis,2012,27(5):321-324.)
[2]孙嘉伟,许晓君,蔡秋茂,等.中国甲状腺癌发病趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2013,22(9):690-693.(In English:Sun JW,Xu XJ,Cai QM,et al.Epidemiological study on thyroid cancer in China[J].China Can,2013,22(9):690-693.)
[3]Sawka AM,Goldstein DP,Brierley JD,et al.The impact of thyroid cancer and post-surgical iodine treatment on the lives of thyroid cancer survivors:a qualitative radioactive study[J].PLo S One,2009,4(1):e4191.
[4]张二勇,张福存,钱永,等.中国典型地区高碘地下水分布特征及启示[J].中国地质,2010,37(3):797-802.(In English:Zhang EY,Zhang FC,Qian Y,et al.The distribution of high iodine groundwater in typical areas of China and its inspiration[J].Geol China,2010,37(3):797-802.)
[5]山东省地质矿产局第二水文地质工程地质大队.黄河下游(山东段)区域工程地质调查报告(1:50万)[R].德州:山东省地质矿产局第二水文地质工程地质大队,1993-1996.
[6]山东省地质环境研究院.京九沿线地区地质矿产资源开发与经济发展研究[R].1999.(In English:Geological Environment Research Institute in Shandong Province.Region geological mineral resources development and economic development research along the Jingjiu[R].1999.)
[7]山东省地质调查院,王彦俊,郭秀岩,等.黄河中下游(山东段)主要环境地质问题调查评价报告[R].济南:山东省地质调查院,2002.
[8]国务院.山东[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/guoqing/2013-04/17/content_2583746.htm.
[9]康凤新,徐军祥,张中祥.山东省地下水资源及其潜力评价[J].山东国土资源,2010,26(8):4-12.(In English:Kang FX,Xu JX,Zhang ZX.Groundwater resources and its potential in Shandong Province[J].Land Resour Shangdong Prov,2010,26(8):4-12.)
[10]Goovaerts P.Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1997.
[11]Alloway BJ.Heavy Metals in Soils[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1995.
[12]田洪军,闫浩文,王丹英,等.空间关系中两相邻实体间最近距离算法研究[J].测绘科学,2008,33(1):200-201,181.(In English:Tian HJ,Yan HW,Wang DY,et al.Research on the closest distance algorithms for two adjacent entities in spatial relationship[J].Sci Surv Mapp,2008,33(1):200-201,181.)
[13]陈艳艳,蔡顺祥,刘建兵,等.湖沼型血吸虫病流行区气候因素与钉螺分布的空间回归分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(3):277-280.(In English:Chen YY,Cai SX,Liu JB,et al.Spatial regression analysis on climatic factors and snail distribution in marshland schistosomiasis transmission areas[J].Chin J Dis Control Prev,2015,19(3):277-280.)
[14]魏世丽,葛永慧.一元非线性回归两种不同模型的比较[J].统计与决策,2015(4):29-31.
[15]Panagopoulos T,Jesus J,Antunes MDC,et al.Analysis of spatial interpolation for optimising management of a salinized field cultivated with lettuce[J].Eur J Agron,2006,24(1):1-10.
[16]Yasrebi J,Saffari M,Fathi H,et al.Evaluation and comparison of ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting methods for prediction of spatial variability of some soil chemical parameters[J].Res J Biol Sci,2009,4(1):93-102.
[17]GB/T 19380-2003,水源性高碘地区和地方性高碘甲状腺肿病区的划定[S].(In English:GB/T 19380-2003 Determination and classification of the areas of high water iodine and the endemic areas of iodine excessgoiter[S].)
[18]郭晓尉,刘传蛟,翟丽屏,等.山东省黄河流域居民饮用水碘含量和水源类型及深度状况调查[J].中国地方病防治杂志,2012,27(5):3-6.(In English:Guo XW,Liu CJ,Zhai LP,et al.Study on the iodine content of drinking water and their resources and the depth of wells in the Yellow River valley in Shandong province[J].Chin J Control Endem Dis,2012,27(5):321-324.)