沟谷型滑坡灾害链成灾机制及堵江危险性判别方法
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摘要
沟谷型剧动式滑坡以其启程剧动、高速短程、灾害链生效应等特点在深切峡谷地区具有极高的潜在风险。以拉月滑坡为例,基于滑坡堵江动力学过程,首先分析沟谷型滑坡的变形破坏机制与灾害链成灾模式,将拉月滑坡灾害链全过程概括为:节理化边坡地震降雨协同劣化→倾倒拉裂模式下变形发展→剪出口锁固段破裂牵连坡体高位剪出→碰撞解体并碎石流化→刨蚀河床并阻塞堆积→堰塞堵江。然后针对沟谷型滑坡堵江灾害高速短程的特点,提出滑坡强度(规模、速度和滑距)为堵江灾害的主控因素,而水沙运动规律则为影响因素。在此基础上,采用层次分析法确定各致灾因素的权重作用,并建立沟谷型滑坡堵江危险性判别模型表达式。最后通过典型案例计算表明,该模型较好地反映了沟谷型剧动式滑坡堵江的特点,对今后沟谷山区工程建设所遭遇的滑坡堵江灾害预测和风险调控,防灾减灾具有指导意义。
High-speed rocky landslide has a great potential risk in the deep-cutting gorges by its unique characteristics,i.e. high speed but short travel distance,disaster chain effect,high potential energy. This paper,based on kinematics of Layue landslide-damming process,firstly concluded the failure mechanism of rocky high speed landslide occurred in gully terrain. And then analyzed its disaster chain effect,which could be outlined as follows:quake-rainfall coupled degradation of slope stability,rock slide in a topple-pull apart model,brittle rupture of the locked path,rock avalanche,riverbed ploughed and thither slope uplifted,blocking and dammming. Given the trait of high speed but short travel distance, this paper formulated that it's the landslide intensity(volume,velocity,runout) determins the occurance of landslide-damming disaster while river features perform as influential factors. Eventually,based on the analytic hierarchy process to highlight the factors‘ weight function,this paper established the gorge-type high-speed short-runout landslide damming hazard evaluation model. Two case studies have shown that this hazard model can fairely well reflects the effect of rocky high-speed landslide damming disaster chain in deep-cutting gorges. Moreover,such model has a great significance and instructions for future mountainous engineering risk control and disaster prevention and mitigation.
High-speed rocky landslide has a great potential risk in the deep-cutting gorges by its unique characteristics,i.e. high speed but short travel distance,disaster chain effect,high potential energy. This paper,based on kinematics of Layue landslide-damming process,firstly concluded the failure mechanism of rocky high speed landslide occurred in gully terrain. And then analyzed its disaster chain effect,which could be outlined as follows:quake-rainfall coupled degradation of slope stability,rock slide in a topple-pull apart model,brittle rupture of the locked path,rock avalanche,riverbed ploughed and thither slope uplifted,blocking and dammming. Given the trait of high speed but short travel distance, this paper formulated that it's the landslide intensity(volume,velocity,runout) determins the occurance of landslide-damming disaster while river features perform as influential factors. Eventually,based on the analytic hierarchy process to highlight the factors‘ weight function,this paper established the gorge-type high-speed short-runout landslide damming hazard evaluation model. Two case studies have shown that this hazard model can fairely well reflects the effect of rocky high-speed landslide damming disaster chain in deep-cutting gorges. Moreover,such model has a great significance and instructions for future mountainous engineering risk control and disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[9]COSTA J E,SCHUSTER R L.Documented historical landslide dams from around the world[M].[S.l.]:US Geological Survey,1991:1–52.
[10]KORUP O.Geomorphic hazard assessment of landslide dams in South Westland,New Zealand:fundamental problems and approaches[J].Geomorphology,2005,66(1):167–188.
[11]HUNGR O,COROMINAS J,EBERHARDT E.Estimating landslide motion mechanism,travel distance and velocity[J].Landslide Risk Management,2005,(1):99–128.
[12]朱平一,程尊兰,游勇.川藏公路培龙沟泥石流输砂堵江成因探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,(1):80–83.(ZHU Pingyi,CHENG Zun lan,YOU Yong.Researeh on causes of river blocikng by sediment delivery of Peilonggou gully debris flow in the Sichuan—Xizang highway[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,(1):80–83.(in Chinese))
[13]徐永年,匡尚富,黄永键,等.泥石流入汇的危险性判别指标[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):33–38.(XU Yongnian,KUANG Shangfu,HUANG Yongjiang,et al.Hazard deciding indices for convergence of debris flow[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(3):33–38.(in Chinese))
[14]徐文杰,陈祖煜,何秉顺,等.肖家桥滑坡堵江机制及灾害链效应研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5):933–942.(XU Wenjie,CHEN Zuyu,HE Bingshun,et al.Research on river-blocking mechanism of xiaojiaqiao Landslide and disasters of chain effects[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(5):933–942.(in Chinese))
[15]胡卸文,黄润秋,施裕兵,等.唐家山滑坡堵江机制及堰塞坝溃坝模式分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):181–189.(HU Xiewen,HUANG Runqiu,SHI Yubing,et al.Analysis of blocking river mechanism of Tangjiashan landslide and dam-breaking mode of its barrier dam[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(1):181–189.(in Chinese))
[16]孔纪名,张小刚,强巴.川藏公路拉月滑坡的块状破坏特征[J].山地学报,2003,21(2):228–233.(KONG Jiming,ZHANG Xiaogang,QING Ba.Rock lump of landslide of layue destruction feature analysis in Sichuan Xizhang highway[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2003,21(2):228–233.(in Chinese))
[17]WANG Z Y,LEE J H W,MELCHING C S.River dynamics and integrated river management[M].[S.l.]:Springer Science and Business Media,2014:104–130.
[18]罗刚,胡卸文,顾成壮.强震作用下顺层岩质斜坡动力失稳机制及启动速度研究[J].岩土力学,2013,34(2):483–490.(LUO Gang,HU Xiewen,GU Chengzhuang.Study of kinetic failure mechanism and starting velocity of consequent rock slopes under strong earthquake[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2013,34(2):483–490.(in Chinese))
[19]HUNGR O.Dynamics of rock avalanches and other types of slope movements[M].1982:150–159.
[20]FAN X,ROSSITER D G,WESTEN C J,et al.Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2014,39(14):1 913–1 926.
[21]方玉树.高位能滑坡运程探讨[J].后勤工程学院学报,2007,23(4):16–20.(FANG Yushu.On research of the landslide with high potential energy[J].Journal of Logistical Engineering University,2007,23(4):16–20.(in Chinese))
[22]樊晓一,乔建平.“坡”、“场”因素对大型滑坡运动特征的影响[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(11):2 337–2 347.(FAN Xiaoyi,QIAO Jianping.Influence of landslide and ground factors on large-scale landslide movement[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(11):2 337–2 347.(in Chinese))
[23]郭志学.泥石流入汇交汇区水沙运动特性[硕士学位论文][D].成都:四川大学,2003.(GUO Zhixue.The movement characteristic of flow and sediment in confluence area when debris flow joine in the main river[M.S.Thesis][D].Chengdu:Sichuan University,2003.(in Chinese))
[24]THOMAS L S.Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J].International Journal of Services Sciences,2008,1(1):83–98.
[2]程谦恭,胡厚田,彭建兵,等.剧冲式高速滑坡及滑坡坝演化过程分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1999,10(3):29–37.(CHENG Qiangong,HU Houtian,PENG Jianbing,et al.Analysis on the evolution process about rocky high speed land slide and land slide dam[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,1999,10(3):28–36.(in Chinese))
[3]程谦恭,胡厚田,胡广韬,等.高速岩质滑坡临床弹冲与峰残强降复合启程加速动力学机制[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2000,(2):173–176.(CHENG Qiangong,HU Houtian,HU Guangtao,et al.A study of complex accelerated dynamics mechanism of high speed landslide by elastic rocky impulse and peak-residual strength drop[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2000,19(2):173–176.(in Chinese))
[4]胡广韬,戴鸿麟.滑坡动力学[M].北京:地质出版社,1995:100–130.(HU Guangtao,DAI Honglin.Landslide dynamics[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1995,100–130.(in Chinese))
[5]FAN X M,ROSSITER D G,VAN WESTEN C J,et al.Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2014,39(14):1 913–1 926.
[6]FAN X M,VAN WESTEN C J,XU Q,et al.Analysis of landslide dams induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2012,57(1):25–37.
[7]XU Q,FAN X M,HUANG R Q,et al.Landslide dams triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake,Sichuan Province,south west China[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2009,68(3):373–386.
[8]柴贺军,刘汉超,张倬元.中国滑坡堵江的类型及其特点[J].成都理工学院学报,1998,(3):411–416.(CHAI Hejun,LIU Hanchao,ZHANG Zhaoyuan.Types and characteristics of landslide damming in China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Technology,1998,(3):411–416.(in Chinese))
[9]COSTA J E,SCHUSTER R L.Documented historical landslide dams from around the world[M].[S.l.]:US Geological Survey,1991:1–52.
[10]KORUP O.Geomorphic hazard assessment of landslide dams in South Westland,New Zealand:fundamental problems and approaches[J].Geomorphology,2005,66(1):167–188.
[11]HUNGR O,COROMINAS J,EBERHARDT E.Estimating landslide motion mechanism,travel distance and velocity[J].Landslide Risk Management,2005,(1):99–128.
[12]朱平一,程尊兰,游勇.川藏公路培龙沟泥石流输砂堵江成因探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,(1):80–83.(ZHU Pingyi,CHENG Zun lan,YOU Yong.Researeh on causes of river blocikng by sediment delivery of Peilonggou gully debris flow in the Sichuan—Xizang highway[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,(1):80–83.(in Chinese))
[13]徐永年,匡尚富,黄永键,等.泥石流入汇的危险性判别指标[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):33–38.(XU Yongnian,KUANG Shangfu,HUANG Yongjiang,et al.Hazard deciding indices for convergence of debris flow[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(3):33–38.(in Chinese))
[14]徐文杰,陈祖煜,何秉顺,等.肖家桥滑坡堵江机制及灾害链效应研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5):933–942.(XU Wenjie,CHEN Zuyu,HE Bingshun,et al.Research on river-blocking mechanism of xiaojiaqiao Landslide and disasters of chain effects[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(5):933–942.(in Chinese))
[15]胡卸文,黄润秋,施裕兵,等.唐家山滑坡堵江机制及堰塞坝溃坝模式分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):181–189.(HU Xiewen,HUANG Runqiu,SHI Yubing,et al.Analysis of blocking river mechanism of Tangjiashan landslide and dam-breaking mode of its barrier dam[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(1):181–189.(in Chinese))
[16]孔纪名,张小刚,强巴.川藏公路拉月滑坡的块状破坏特征[J].山地学报,2003,21(2):228–233.(KONG Jiming,ZHANG Xiaogang,QING Ba.Rock lump of landslide of layue destruction feature analysis in Sichuan Xizhang highway[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2003,21(2):228–233.(in Chinese))
[17]WANG Z Y,LEE J H W,MELCHING C S.River dynamics and integrated river management[M].[S.l.]:Springer Science and Business Media,2014:104–130.
[18]罗刚,胡卸文,顾成壮.强震作用下顺层岩质斜坡动力失稳机制及启动速度研究[J].岩土力学,2013,34(2):483–490.(LUO Gang,HU Xiewen,GU Chengzhuang.Study of kinetic failure mechanism and starting velocity of consequent rock slopes under strong earthquake[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2013,34(2):483–490.(in Chinese))
[19]HUNGR O.Dynamics of rock avalanches and other types of slope movements[M].1982:150–159.
[20]FAN X,ROSSITER D G,WESTEN C J,et al.Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2014,39(14):1 913–1 926.
[21]方玉树.高位能滑坡运程探讨[J].后勤工程学院学报,2007,23(4):16–20.(FANG Yushu.On research of the landslide with high potential energy[J].Journal of Logistical Engineering University,2007,23(4):16–20.(in Chinese))
[22]樊晓一,乔建平.“坡”、“场”因素对大型滑坡运动特征的影响[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(11):2 337–2 347.(FAN Xiaoyi,QIAO Jianping.Influence of landslide and ground factors on large-scale landslide movement[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(11):2 337–2 347.(in Chinese))
[23]郭志学.泥石流入汇交汇区水沙运动特性[硕士学位论文][D].成都:四川大学,2003.(GUO Zhixue.The movement characteristic of flow and sediment in confluence area when debris flow joine in the main river[M.S.Thesis][D].Chengdu:Sichuan University,2003.(in Chinese))
[24]THOMAS L S.Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J].International Journal of Services Sciences,2008,1(1):83–98.