基于收益原则的碳排放转移及中国碳排放责任研究
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摘要
巴黎气候大会再次明确将"共同但有区别"的责任原则、公平原则和各自能力原则作为碳排放责任划分的基本原则。在现行以生产者原则为主流的碳排放责任核算体系具有缺陷的背景下,对中国主张排放权及发展权提出了新的挑战。本文聚焦学者们新提出的碳排放责任划分原则——"收益原则",构建基于区域投入产出模型的戈什模型,以中国为主要研究对象,核算1995—2011年全球40个国家和地区及其他国家组的收益侧碳排放及收益侧碳排放转移。结果表明在研究期间内中国收益侧碳排放远小于直接碳排放,并且净进口的收益侧碳排放规模逐步扩大。俄罗斯、德国、日本、美国和澳大利亚等国向中国净出口的收益侧碳排放呈现逐年增长的趋势。收益原则能够纠正生产者原则的部分偏差,建立以收益原则为基础的碳排放责任核算体系有利于建立更加公正和有效的碳减排方案,本文的研究为中国主张合理的碳排放责任划分原则和制定有效的碳减排政策提供政策建议。
The Paris World Climate Conference re-emphasized the establishment of the carbon emission responsibility principle based on common but differentiated responsibility, equality and respective capability principles. The current flawed carbon emission accounting inventory is based on Producer Principles and presents a challenge for China in claiming its rights to emit and develop. Taking China as the main research object and focusing on the newly-proposed Income Principle, we estimated 41 countries and regions Income Principle based carbon emissions and carbon emissions transferred using multi-regional input-output and Ghosh models. We found that China's estimated responsibility of Income Principle based carbon emissions was lower than what China is supposed to take on direct carbon emissions; net imports of Income Principle based carbon emissions increased from 1995 to 2011. China is the largest net importer on Income Principle based carbon emissions. Countries such as Japan, USA, Germany, Russia, Australia and Brazil increasingly export Income Principle based carbon emissions to China. China has become one of the important destinations for Income Principle based carbon emissions exports from these countries. Constructing a carbon emissions accounting inventory using the Income Principle will facilitate the establishment of a more effective and fairer carbon reduction framework, and aid China's proposition of rational carbon emissions principles and effective carbon emission reduction policies.
The Paris World Climate Conference re-emphasized the establishment of the carbon emission responsibility principle based on common but differentiated responsibility, equality and respective capability principles. The current flawed carbon emission accounting inventory is based on Producer Principles and presents a challenge for China in claiming its rights to emit and develop. Taking China as the main research object and focusing on the newly-proposed Income Principle, we estimated 41 countries and regions Income Principle based carbon emissions and carbon emissions transferred using multi-regional input-output and Ghosh models. We found that China's estimated responsibility of Income Principle based carbon emissions was lower than what China is supposed to take on direct carbon emissions; net imports of Income Principle based carbon emissions increased from 1995 to 2011. China is the largest net importer on Income Principle based carbon emissions. Countries such as Japan, USA, Germany, Russia, Australia and Brazil increasingly export Income Principle based carbon emissions to China. China has become one of the important destinations for Income Principle based carbon emissions exports from these countries. Constructing a carbon emissions accounting inventory using the Income Principle will facilitate the establishment of a more effective and fairer carbon reduction framework, and aid China's proposition of rational carbon emissions principles and effective carbon emission reduction policies.
引文
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[20]彭水军,韦韬,曹毅.全球生产链视角下外需对中国能源消耗的影响-基于MRIO模型的实证研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2016,(6):51-61.[Peng S J,Wei T,Cao Y.Effects of foreign demand on energy of china from a global production chain perspective:an empirical analysis based on the MRIO model[J].Jilin University Journal Social Science Edition,2016,(6):51-61.]
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[2]Liu Z,Davis S J,Feng K,et al.Targeted opportunities to address the climate-trade dilemma in China[J].Nature Climate Change,2015,DOI:10.1038/nclimate2800.
[3]谢来辉,陈迎.碳泄漏问题评析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4):214-219.[Xie L H,Chen Y.A review and analysis on carbon leakage[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2007,3(4):214-219.]
[4]Pan J,Philip J,Chen Y.China balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354-376.
[5]Tamiotti L,Olhoff A,Robert T,et al.Trade and Climate Change:A report by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Trade Organization[R].Geneva:Trade and Climate Change,2009.
[6]Peters G P,Hertwich E G.CO2embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2008,42(5):1401-1407.
[7]Peters G P,Reassessing Carbon Leakage[C].Helsinki:Future of Global Economy,2008.
[8]齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3):8-13.[Qi Y,Li H,Xu M.Accounting embodied carbon in import and export in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2008,18(3):8-13.]
[9]徐盈之,郭进.开放经济条件下国家碳排放责任比较研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):55-63.[Xu Y Z,Guo J.A comparative study of countries’carbon responsibilities for carbon emission in open economy[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(1):55-63.]
[10]佘群芝,贾净雪.中国对外贸易隐含碳排放核算及责任分配研究-基于“消费者和生产者共同负责”原则[J].中南民族大学学报人文社会科学版,2014,34(6):132-137.[She Q Z,Jia J X.Analysis of China’s embodied carbon emission and division of responsibility-based on shared-responsibility principle[J].Journal of South-Central University for Nationalities(humanities and social sciences edition),2014,34(6):132-137.]
[11]Hubler M.Can carbon based import tariffs effectively reduce carbon emissions?[J].Kiel Working Papers,2009,50(11):315-327.
[12]彭水军,张文城,卫瑞.碳排放的国家责任核算方案[J].经济研究,2016,(3):137-150.[Peng S J,Zhang W C,Wei R.National carbon emission responsibility[J].Economic Research Journal,2016,(3):137-150.]
[13]王媛,王文琴,方修琦,等.基于国际分工角度的中国贸易碳转移估算[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1331-1337.[Wang Y,Wang W Q,Fang X Q,et al.Assessment of carbon transfer embodied within the trade between China and other regions based on international specialization[J].Resource Science,2011,33(7):1331-1337.]
[14]Davis S J,Caldeira K.Consumption-based accounting of CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(12):5687-5692.
[15]Yan Y,Yang L.China's foreign trade and climate change:a case study of CO2emissions[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):350-356.
[16]Marques A,Rodrigues J,Lenzen M,et al.Income-based environmental responsibility[J].Ecological Economics,2012,84(2):57-65.
[17]Marques A,Rodrigues J,Domingos T.Downstream Emissions and the Carbon Trade Balance between World Regions[C].Alexandria:19th International Input-Output Conference of the International Input-Output Association,2011.
[18]WIOD Project of European Commission.World Input-Output Data-base[EB/OL].(2016-01-30)[2016-05-01].http://www.wiod.org/home.
[19]彭水军,张文城,孙传旺.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(1):168-182.[Peng S J,Zhang W C,Sun C W.China’s production-based and consumption-based carbo emissions and their determinants[J].Economic Research Journal,2015,50(1):168-182.]
[20]彭水军,韦韬,曹毅.全球生产链视角下外需对中国能源消耗的影响-基于MRIO模型的实证研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2016,(6):51-61.[Peng S J,Wei T,Cao Y.Effects of foreign demand on energy of china from a global production chain perspective:an empirical analysis based on the MRIO model[J].Jilin University Journal Social Science Edition,2016,(6):51-61.]
[21]王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J].经济研究,2010,(2):123-136.[Wang F,Wu L H,Yang C.Driving factors for growth of carbon dioxide emission during economic development in China[J].Economic Research Journal,2010,(2):123-136.]