收益原则视角下中国下游碳贸易平衡
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摘要
基于多区域投入产出模型的戈什模型,以中国为主要研究对象,核算并分析了1995~2011年全球41个国家和地区的下游碳贸易平衡.结果表明,研究期间内中国收益侧碳排放远小于直接碳排放,下游碳贸易平衡年均增长率达11.92%,中国是收益侧碳排放最大的净进口国.日本、美国、德国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚及巴西等国对中国收益侧碳排放净出口规模不断扩大,中国已经成为这些国家和地区收益侧碳排放转移的重要目的地之一.建立以收益原则为基础的碳排放责任核算体系有利于建立更加公正和有效的碳减排方案,有利于中国主张合理的碳排放责任原则和实行有效的碳减排政策.
China was taken as the main research object. This paper estimated 41 countries and regions' downstream carbon trade balance. The result calculated has shown that China's estimated responsibility of income-based carbon emission was lower than what China was supposed to take on direct carbon emission, and the downstream carbon trade balance was increasing with an annual growth rate of 11.92% during 1995 to 2011. The result calculated indicated that China was the largest net importer on income-based carbon emission. Countries such as Japan, the United States, Germany, Russia, Australia and Brazil has increasingly exported income-based carbon emission to China year by year. China became one of important destinations for income-based carbon emission exports from these countries. Carbon emissions accounting inventory was constructed using the income principle to facilitate the establishment of a more effective and fairer carbon reduction framework, as well as to aid China's proposition of rational carbon emissions principle and effective carbon emission reduction policies.
China was taken as the main research object. This paper estimated 41 countries and regions' downstream carbon trade balance. The result calculated has shown that China's estimated responsibility of income-based carbon emission was lower than what China was supposed to take on direct carbon emission, and the downstream carbon trade balance was increasing with an annual growth rate of 11.92% during 1995 to 2011. The result calculated indicated that China was the largest net importer on income-based carbon emission. Countries such as Japan, the United States, Germany, Russia, Australia and Brazil has increasingly exported income-based carbon emission to China year by year. China became one of important destinations for income-based carbon emission exports from these countries. Carbon emissions accounting inventory was constructed using the income principle to facilitate the establishment of a more effective and fairer carbon reduction framework, as well as to aid China's proposition of rational carbon emissions principle and effective carbon emission reduction policies.
引文
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[19]WIOD Project of European Commission.World Input-Output Data-base[EB/OL].http://www.wiod.org/home.
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[22]王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J].经济研究,2010,(2):123-136.
[2]Liu Z,Davis S J,Feng K,et al.Targeted opportunities to address the climate-trade dilemma in China[J].Nature Climate Change,2015,6(2).
[3]谢来辉,陈迎.碳泄漏问题评析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4):214-219.
[4]Pan J,Phillips J,Chen Y.China's balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354-376.
[5]张同斌,刘琳.中国碳减排政策效应的模拟分析与对比研究——兼论如何平衡经济增长与碳强度下降的双重目标[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(9):3591-3600.
[6]Peters G P,Hertwich E G.CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy.[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2008,42(5):1401-7.
[7]徐盈之,郭进.开放经济条件下国家碳排放责任比较研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2014,24(1):55-63.
[8]佘群芝,贾净雪.中国对外贸易隐含碳排放核算及责任分配研究——基于“消费者和生产者共同负责”原则[J].中南民族大学学报人文社会科学版,2014,34(6):132-137.
[9]Tamiotti L,Anne Olhoff,Robert Teh,et al.Trade and Climate Change:A report by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Trade Organization[R].Geneva:Word Trade Organization,2009.
[10]Peters G P,Reassessing carbon leakage:paper for the Eleventh Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis[J].Future of Global Economy,2008,1(6):12-14.
[11]Hubler M.Can carbon based import tariffs effectively reduce carbon emissions?[J].Kiel Working Papers,2009,50(11):315-327.
[12]齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口资源与环境,2008,18(3):8-13.
[13]王媛,王文琴,方修琦,等.基于国际分工角度的中国贸易碳转移估算[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1331-1337.
[14]Davis S J,Caldeira K.Consumption-based accounting of CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(12):5687.
[15]Marques A,Rodrigues J,Lenzen M,et al.Income-based environmental responsibility[J].Ecological Economics,2012,84(2):57-65.
[16]彭水军,韦韬,曹毅.全球生产链视角下外需对中国能源消耗的影响——基于MRIO模型的实证研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2016(6):51-61.
[17]Yan Y,Yang L.China's foreign trade and climate change:A case study of CO2 emissions[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):350-356.
[18]Marques A,Rodrigues J,Domingos T.Embodied emissions and the carbon trade balance between world regions[J].2011,6(7):1-30.
[19]WIOD Project of European Commission.World Input-Output Data-base[EB/OL].http://www.wiod.org/home.
[20]徐丽萍,王立,李金林.基于隐含能的行业完全能源效率评价模型研究[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(11):2095-2102.
[21]彭水军,韦韬,曹毅.全球生产链视角下外需对中国能源消耗的影响——基于MRIO模型的实证研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2016(6):51-61.
[22]王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J].经济研究,2010,(2):123-136.