中国外贸结构调整的节碳效应测算
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摘要
中国外贸结构的调整对进出口贸易隐含碳产生了重要影响,目前的研究尚缺乏从定量的角度对此进行分析。本文利用投入产出模型的改进算法和中国投入产出表,将中国对外贸易隐含碳与外贸结构调整结合起来,在对各部门完全碳排放强度与外贸结构特征进行描述分析基础上,重点对外贸隐含碳失衡度和外贸结构调整的节碳效应进行研究。结果显示:与2007年相比,中国2012年各部门的进出口贸易的完全碳排放强度显著变小,大部分部门进口贸易完全碳排放强度要大于出口贸易的完全碳排放强度;出口贸易输出与进口贸易输入的隐含碳规模呈现动态上升与部门集中度高的特点,而外贸中的隐含碳净输出量则表现为规模下降与部门差别大的特点;总体来看,调整中国外贸结构能够有效降低我国贸易隐含二氧化碳排放的净输出量。本文基于上述研究结果建议应加强减排创新技术,从技术层面上控制碳排放,同时优化进出口贸易结构,降低贸易隐含碳排放净输出量,此外征收碳税也可作为减少碳排放的重要途径。
The change of foreign trade structure has an important influence on the implicit carbon of import and export trade.Using improved algorithm of input-output model and China input-output table,on the basis of descriptive analysis of the complete carbon intensity of each sector and the characteristics of foreign trade structure,this paper combines the implicit carbon of China's foreign trade with the structural adjustment of foreign trade,and focuses on the carbon imbalance of foreign trade and the carbon-saving effect of foreign trade structure adjustment. The results show that: the complete carbon emission intensity of the import and export trade in most departments in 2012 is obviously smaller than 2007. The intensity of the complete carbon emissions of the export trade of most sectors is less than that of the import trade. The scale of implicit carbon in foreign trade presents the characteristics of scale decline and sectoral difference. On the whole,adjusting the structure of China's foreign trade can effectively reduce the net output of China's implicit carbon dioxide emissions from trade. Based on the research results,this paper suggests that innovative technologies should be strengthened to control carbon emissions from a technical perspective,meanwhile,optimizing the structure of import and export trade and reducing the net export trade of implicit carbon emissions. In addition,the carbon tax can also be used as an important way to reduce carbon emissions.
The change of foreign trade structure has an important influence on the implicit carbon of import and export trade.Using improved algorithm of input-output model and China input-output table,on the basis of descriptive analysis of the complete carbon intensity of each sector and the characteristics of foreign trade structure,this paper combines the implicit carbon of China's foreign trade with the structural adjustment of foreign trade,and focuses on the carbon imbalance of foreign trade and the carbon-saving effect of foreign trade structure adjustment. The results show that: the complete carbon emission intensity of the import and export trade in most departments in 2012 is obviously smaller than 2007. The intensity of the complete carbon emissions of the export trade of most sectors is less than that of the import trade. The scale of implicit carbon in foreign trade presents the characteristics of scale decline and sectoral difference. On the whole,adjusting the structure of China's foreign trade can effectively reduce the net output of China's implicit carbon dioxide emissions from trade. Based on the research results,this paper suggests that innovative technologies should be strengthened to control carbon emissions from a technical perspective,meanwhile,optimizing the structure of import and export trade and reducing the net export trade of implicit carbon emissions. In addition,the carbon tax can also be used as an important way to reduce carbon emissions.
引文
[1]陈玉龙,钟章奇,吴乐英,赵金彩.中国可再生能源消费、对外贸易和碳排放的关系[J].软科学,2017,31(09):49-52.
[2]胡剑波,郭风.中国进出口产品部门隐含碳排放测算——基于2002-2012年非竞争型投入产出数据的分析[J].商业研究,2017,(05):49-57.
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[4]黄敏,刘剑锋.外贸隐含碳排放变化的驱动因素研究——基于I-O SDA模型的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011,(04):94-103.
[5]黄敏,蒋琴儿.浙江省二氧化碳排放测算:消费排放与生产排放的对比[J].华东经济管理,2012,(02):15-18.
[6]马晶梅,王新影.发达国家是否向发展中国家转移了碳排放——基于碳排放责任分摊的视角[J].经济学家,2015,(06):95-102.
[7]潘安,吴肖丽.出口结构调整降低了中国碳排放吗?[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,(05):117-125.
[8]彭水军,张文城,孙传旺.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(01):168-182.
[9]齐绍洲,张振源.经济增长与贸易隐含碳——基于生产侧与消费侧碳排放的视角[J].环境经济研究,2017,2(2):1-17.
[10]秦耀辰,李旭,荣培君.基于改进EIO-LCA模型的城市旅游业碳排放核算研究——以开封市为例[J].地理科学进展,2015,(02):132-140.
[11]唐建荣,李烨啸.基于EIO-LCA的隐性碳排放估算及地区差异化研究——江浙沪地区隐含碳排放构成与差异[J].工业技术经济,2013,(04):125-135.
[12]王丽丽,王媛,毛国柱,赵鹏.中国国际贸易隐含碳SDA分析[J].资源科学,2012,(12):2382-2389.
[13]王文举,向其凤.国际贸易中的隐含碳排放核算及责任分配[J].中国工业经济,2011,(10):56-64.
[14]吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,徐国良,於冉,李丽.基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(04):43-51.
[15]闫云凤,赵忠秀,王苒.基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含碳及排放责任研究[J].世界经济研究,2013,(06):54-58+86+88-89.
[16]闫云凤,杨来科.金融危机条件下我国出口贸易向低碳经济转型[J].当代财经,2010,(1):105-110.
[17]赵凯,易晓慧,柳洋.中国出口贸易与碳排放脱钩研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,30(04):83-88.
[18]中国投入产出学会课题组.国民经济各部门水资源消耗及用水系数的投入产出分析——2002年投入产出表系列分析报告之五[J].统计研究,2007,(03):20-25.
[19]周国富,朱倩.出口隐含碳排放的产业分布及优化对策研究[J].统计研究,2014,(10):21-28.
[20]周新.国际贸易中的隐含碳排放核算及贸易调整后的国家温室气体排放[J].管理评论,2010,(06):17-24.
[21]朱启荣.中国外贸中虚拟水与外贸结构调整研究[J].中国工业经济,2014,(2):58-70.
[22]邹安全,罗杏玲,全春光.基于EIO-LCA的钢铁产品生命周期碳排放研究[J].管理世界,2013,12:178-179.
[23]Machado,G.,R.Schaeffer,and E.Worrel.Energy and Carbon Embodied in the International Trade of Brazil:An Input-output Approach[J].Ecological Economics,2001,39(3):409-424.
[24]Shui,Band R.C.Harriss.The Role of CO2Embodiment in US-China Trade[J].Energy policy,2006,34(18):4063-4068.
[25]Weber,C.L.and H.S.Matthews.Quantifying the Global and Distributional Aspects of American Household Carbon Footprint[J].Ecological Economics,2008,66(2-3):379-39.
[2]胡剑波,郭风.中国进出口产品部门隐含碳排放测算——基于2002-2012年非竞争型投入产出数据的分析[J].商业研究,2017,(05):49-57.
[3]扈涛,王文治.中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的测算与分解[J].生态经济,2017,33(07):37-41+46.
[4]黄敏,刘剑锋.外贸隐含碳排放变化的驱动因素研究——基于I-O SDA模型的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011,(04):94-103.
[5]黄敏,蒋琴儿.浙江省二氧化碳排放测算:消费排放与生产排放的对比[J].华东经济管理,2012,(02):15-18.
[6]马晶梅,王新影.发达国家是否向发展中国家转移了碳排放——基于碳排放责任分摊的视角[J].经济学家,2015,(06):95-102.
[7]潘安,吴肖丽.出口结构调整降低了中国碳排放吗?[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,(05):117-125.
[8]彭水军,张文城,孙传旺.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(01):168-182.
[9]齐绍洲,张振源.经济增长与贸易隐含碳——基于生产侧与消费侧碳排放的视角[J].环境经济研究,2017,2(2):1-17.
[10]秦耀辰,李旭,荣培君.基于改进EIO-LCA模型的城市旅游业碳排放核算研究——以开封市为例[J].地理科学进展,2015,(02):132-140.
[11]唐建荣,李烨啸.基于EIO-LCA的隐性碳排放估算及地区差异化研究——江浙沪地区隐含碳排放构成与差异[J].工业技术经济,2013,(04):125-135.
[12]王丽丽,王媛,毛国柱,赵鹏.中国国际贸易隐含碳SDA分析[J].资源科学,2012,(12):2382-2389.
[13]王文举,向其凤.国际贸易中的隐含碳排放核算及责任分配[J].中国工业经济,2011,(10):56-64.
[14]吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,徐国良,於冉,李丽.基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(04):43-51.
[15]闫云凤,赵忠秀,王苒.基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含碳及排放责任研究[J].世界经济研究,2013,(06):54-58+86+88-89.
[16]闫云凤,杨来科.金融危机条件下我国出口贸易向低碳经济转型[J].当代财经,2010,(1):105-110.
[17]赵凯,易晓慧,柳洋.中国出口贸易与碳排放脱钩研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,30(04):83-88.
[18]中国投入产出学会课题组.国民经济各部门水资源消耗及用水系数的投入产出分析——2002年投入产出表系列分析报告之五[J].统计研究,2007,(03):20-25.
[19]周国富,朱倩.出口隐含碳排放的产业分布及优化对策研究[J].统计研究,2014,(10):21-28.
[20]周新.国际贸易中的隐含碳排放核算及贸易调整后的国家温室气体排放[J].管理评论,2010,(06):17-24.
[21]朱启荣.中国外贸中虚拟水与外贸结构调整研究[J].中国工业经济,2014,(2):58-70.
[22]邹安全,罗杏玲,全春光.基于EIO-LCA的钢铁产品生命周期碳排放研究[J].管理世界,2013,12:178-179.
[23]Machado,G.,R.Schaeffer,and E.Worrel.Energy and Carbon Embodied in the International Trade of Brazil:An Input-output Approach[J].Ecological Economics,2001,39(3):409-424.
[24]Shui,Band R.C.Harriss.The Role of CO2Embodiment in US-China Trade[J].Energy policy,2006,34(18):4063-4068.
[25]Weber,C.L.and H.S.Matthews.Quantifying the Global and Distributional Aspects of American Household Carbon Footprint[J].Ecological Economics,2008,66(2-3):379-39.