南京都市农业农地利用碳排放测算及趋势预测
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摘要
[目的]测算南京市都市农业农地利用碳效应,为发展都市农业的其他城市提供可借鉴的低碳经验。[方法]基于化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、翻耕6个主要方面的碳源,测算南京市1996—2014年的农地利用碳排放量,综合林地、草地、园地3个主要方面的碳汇变化特征,探索农地利用方式变化导致的碳效应。并基于灰色GM(1,1)模型预测南京市农地利用碳排放量趋势。[结果]1996—2014年南京农地利用碳排放量总体呈现"上升—波动—平稳下降"的3阶段特征,纵向来看,2005—2014年林地碳汇、草地碳汇有所下降,但变化趋势不同。横向来看,由于各区承载的城市功能不同,区域碳汇差异较大。从农地利用方式变化的碳效应来看,2000—2008年南京市因生态退耕产生碳汇呈先上升后下降的变化趋势,建设占用导致的碳排放量变化趋势呈现Z字形上升。基于灰色GM(1,1)模型采用等维递补预测方法,预计到2020年该市农地利用碳排放量为1.11×105 t。[结论]南京市农地利用碳排放的变化趋势与经济发展和都市农业发展进程密切相关。林地、草地面积的减少降低了原本不高的碳汇效应,并且由于经济发展与城市建设需要,持续上升的建设占用碳排放对南京市碳效应影响巨大。
[Objective]The carbon effect of urban agricultural land was estimated in Nanjing City to provide development experience for other cities with urban agriculture.[Methods]The carbon emissions from agricultural land in Nanjing City were calculated from 1996 to 2014based on six main carbon sources of chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural film,agricultural diesel,irrigation and tillage.At the same time,the variations of three main carbon sinks,including forest land,grassland,garden,were explored to illustrate the carbon effects of agricultural land use changes.In the end,the trend of carbon emissions from agricultural land in Nanjing City was predicted based on the gray GM(1,1)model.[Results]From 1996 to 2014,the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Nanjing City showed a three-stage variation of"rising-fluctuatingsteady decline".Chronically,the carbon sinks of both forest land and grass land decreased from 2005to2014,but their decreasing rate was different.From the view of regional comparison,due to the city carrying function was different,regional carbon sinks differed greatly.In terms of the carbon effect of the change ofagricultural land use,the carbon sequestration in Nanjing City from 2000 to 2008increased at first and then decreased;and carbon emission caused by construction occupancy experienced a Z-shaped variation.Based on the gray GM(1,1)model,the isobar metric forecasting method was used.It was estimated that the agricultural carbon use in the city will be 1.11×105 t by 2020.[Conclusion]The trend of carbon use in Nanjing City was closely related to the economic development and the process of urban agriculture development.The reductions of forest land and grass land area reduced the original carbon sink effect.And as a result from economic development and urban construction needs,the continued growth in construction land have great impact,which will result in a large number of carbon emissions in Nanjing City.
[Objective]The carbon effect of urban agricultural land was estimated in Nanjing City to provide development experience for other cities with urban agriculture.[Methods]The carbon emissions from agricultural land in Nanjing City were calculated from 1996 to 2014based on six main carbon sources of chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural film,agricultural diesel,irrigation and tillage.At the same time,the variations of three main carbon sinks,including forest land,grassland,garden,were explored to illustrate the carbon effects of agricultural land use changes.In the end,the trend of carbon emissions from agricultural land in Nanjing City was predicted based on the gray GM(1,1)model.[Results]From 1996 to 2014,the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Nanjing City showed a three-stage variation of"rising-fluctuatingsteady decline".Chronically,the carbon sinks of both forest land and grass land decreased from 2005to2014,but their decreasing rate was different.From the view of regional comparison,due to the city carrying function was different,regional carbon sinks differed greatly.In terms of the carbon effect of the change ofagricultural land use,the carbon sequestration in Nanjing City from 2000 to 2008increased at first and then decreased;and carbon emission caused by construction occupancy experienced a Z-shaped variation.Based on the gray GM(1,1)model,the isobar metric forecasting method was used.It was estimated that the agricultural carbon use in the city will be 1.11×105 t by 2020.[Conclusion]The trend of carbon use in Nanjing City was closely related to the economic development and the process of urban agriculture development.The reductions of forest land and grass land area reduced the original carbon sink effect.And as a result from economic development and urban construction needs,the continued growth in construction land have great impact,which will result in a large number of carbon emissions in Nanjing City.
引文
[1]徐慧慧.南京都市农业发展的实证研究[D].江苏南京:南京农业大学,2010.
[2]陈俊红,姜翠红,李红.都市型现代农业低碳经济进程评价及建议:以大兴区为例[J].生态经济:学术版,2011(1):303-306.
[3]田云,李波,张俊飚.我国农地利用碳排放的阶段特征及因素分解研究[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2011,11(1):59-63.
[4]李俊杰.民族地区农地利用碳排放测算及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(9):42-47.
[5]张勇,张乐勤,汪应宏,等.安徽省池州市土地利用碳排放演变及其影响因素[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(2):216-223.
[6]张婷.江西省农地利用碳排放效应及碳减排对策研究[D].江西南昌:西农业大学,2014.
[7]屈宇宏.城市土地利用碳通量测算、碳效应分析及调控机制研究[D].湖北武汉:华中农业大学,2015.
[8]黎孔清.低碳经济导向的区域土地利用评价与结构优化研究[D].湖北武汉:华中农业大学,2013.
[9]朱亚红,马燕玲,陈秉谱.甘肃省农地利用碳排放测算及影响因素研究[J].农业现代化研究,2014(2):248-252.
[10]尹希果,霍婷.国外低碳经济研究综述[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(9):18-23.
[11]韦献斌.低碳经济视角下的低碳农业发展战略浅述[J].现代经济信息,2016(1):373.
[12]付加锋,庄贵阳,高庆先.低碳经济的概念辨识及评价指标体系构建[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):38-43.
[13]Holtz eakin D,Se lden T M.Stoking the Fires?CO2Emissions and Economic Growth[J].ournal of Public Economics,1995,57(1):85-101.
[14]Shafik N,Bandyopadhyay S.Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-Country Evidence[R].Washington:The World Bank,World Development Report Working Paper WPS 904,1992.
[15]张永青,沈建华.实施品牌战略发展都市农业:南京市农林局局长安开根畅谈农业创牌[J].江苏农村经济,2006(8):20-23.
[16]王珲.南京都市农业发展研究[D].江苏南京:南京农业大学,2010.
[17]市政府关于印发南京市“十三五”现代农业发展规划的通知[EB/OL].(2016-07-20)[2017-2-17].http:∥www.njaf.gov.cn/26500/27111/27113/201607/t20160726_4050126.html.
[18]南京市农业概况[EB/OL].(2015-02-16)[2017-2-17].http://www.njaf.gov.cn/26500/27088.
[19]陈诗一.中国各地区低碳经济转型进程评估[J].经济研究,2012(8):32-44.
[20]West T O,Marland G.A synthesis of carbon sequestration,carbone missions,and net carbon flux in agriculture:Comparing tillage practices in the United States[J].Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2002,91(1/3):217-232.
[21]智静,高吉喜.中国城乡居民食品消费碳排放对比分析[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(3):429-434.
[22]伍芬琳,李琳,张海林,等.保护性耕作对农田生态系统净碳释放量的影响[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(12):2035-2039.
[23]Dubey A,Lal R.Carbon footprint and sustainability of agricultural production systems in Punjab,India and Ohio,USA[J].Journal of Crop Improvement,2009,23(4):332-350.
[24]黄贤金.区域产业结构变化的碳排放效应研究:以江苏省为例[C].江苏南京:中国地理学会2007年学术年会论文摘要集,2007.
[25]方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等.1981—2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学(D):地球科学,2007,37(6):804-812.
[26]张永波.基于灰色系统理论的预测模型的研究[D].黑龙江哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2005.
[2]陈俊红,姜翠红,李红.都市型现代农业低碳经济进程评价及建议:以大兴区为例[J].生态经济:学术版,2011(1):303-306.
[3]田云,李波,张俊飚.我国农地利用碳排放的阶段特征及因素分解研究[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2011,11(1):59-63.
[4]李俊杰.民族地区农地利用碳排放测算及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(9):42-47.
[5]张勇,张乐勤,汪应宏,等.安徽省池州市土地利用碳排放演变及其影响因素[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(2):216-223.
[6]张婷.江西省农地利用碳排放效应及碳减排对策研究[D].江西南昌:西农业大学,2014.
[7]屈宇宏.城市土地利用碳通量测算、碳效应分析及调控机制研究[D].湖北武汉:华中农业大学,2015.
[8]黎孔清.低碳经济导向的区域土地利用评价与结构优化研究[D].湖北武汉:华中农业大学,2013.
[9]朱亚红,马燕玲,陈秉谱.甘肃省农地利用碳排放测算及影响因素研究[J].农业现代化研究,2014(2):248-252.
[10]尹希果,霍婷.国外低碳经济研究综述[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(9):18-23.
[11]韦献斌.低碳经济视角下的低碳农业发展战略浅述[J].现代经济信息,2016(1):373.
[12]付加锋,庄贵阳,高庆先.低碳经济的概念辨识及评价指标体系构建[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):38-43.
[13]Holtz eakin D,Se lden T M.Stoking the Fires?CO2Emissions and Economic Growth[J].ournal of Public Economics,1995,57(1):85-101.
[14]Shafik N,Bandyopadhyay S.Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-Country Evidence[R].Washington:The World Bank,World Development Report Working Paper WPS 904,1992.
[15]张永青,沈建华.实施品牌战略发展都市农业:南京市农林局局长安开根畅谈农业创牌[J].江苏农村经济,2006(8):20-23.
[16]王珲.南京都市农业发展研究[D].江苏南京:南京农业大学,2010.
[17]市政府关于印发南京市“十三五”现代农业发展规划的通知[EB/OL].(2016-07-20)[2017-2-17].http:∥www.njaf.gov.cn/26500/27111/27113/201607/t20160726_4050126.html.
[18]南京市农业概况[EB/OL].(2015-02-16)[2017-2-17].http://www.njaf.gov.cn/26500/27088.
[19]陈诗一.中国各地区低碳经济转型进程评估[J].经济研究,2012(8):32-44.
[20]West T O,Marland G.A synthesis of carbon sequestration,carbone missions,and net carbon flux in agriculture:Comparing tillage practices in the United States[J].Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2002,91(1/3):217-232.
[21]智静,高吉喜.中国城乡居民食品消费碳排放对比分析[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(3):429-434.
[22]伍芬琳,李琳,张海林,等.保护性耕作对农田生态系统净碳释放量的影响[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(12):2035-2039.
[23]Dubey A,Lal R.Carbon footprint and sustainability of agricultural production systems in Punjab,India and Ohio,USA[J].Journal of Crop Improvement,2009,23(4):332-350.
[24]黄贤金.区域产业结构变化的碳排放效应研究:以江苏省为例[C].江苏南京:中国地理学会2007年学术年会论文摘要集,2007.
[25]方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等.1981—2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学(D):地球科学,2007,37(6):804-812.
[26]张永波.基于灰色系统理论的预测模型的研究[D].黑龙江哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2005.