我国石油公司应对全球能源转型发展的思考及建议
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摘要
当前新一轮的能源变革正在孕育,虽然未来石油天然气仍将占据主导能源地位,但可再生能源的迅猛发展,将推动全球进入传统能源与可再生能源长期共存的多元化时代。同时,当今社会还面临着日益增长的能源需求和温室气体减排的双重挑战,而低碳发展趋势与数字化技术将共同对本轮能源转型产生了颠覆性影响。未来一次能源需求增速将显著放缓,能效逐年提高,经济增量和能源消费增量间"脱钩"的趋势正在逐步显现,各类可再生能源的规模化发电成本均已低于或接近化石能源发电成本。然而,碳减排形势依然严峻,可再生能源发展中的一些难题尚存。在此大背景下,各大国际石油公司正在加快向综合性国际能源公司转型的步伐,加大天然气领域布局并适时进入新能源产业。我国石油公司在石油主业增储上产、持续加大天然气产业投入的同时,应着力提升天然气进口来源多元化,有效推进天然气全产业链建设,并积极参与研究建立全球化的天然气贸易体系;审慎选择进入新能源市场的时机和商业运作模式,打造新能源拳头产品和知名品牌,提升绿色产业国际竞争力;在重视传统领域技术创新、降本增效等同质化竞争手段的同时,积极抢占数字化转型机遇的战略制高点,着力推动石油公司数字化转型进程。
The current round of energy transformation is brewing.Although oil and natural gas will still play a dominant role in the future,the rapid development of renewable energy will push the world into an era of diversification in which traditional energy and renewable energy can coexist for a long time.At the same time,today′s society is facing dual challenges of the increasing energy demand and the greenhouse gas emis-sion reduction,and the low carbon development trend and the digitalization technology jointly have a subversive impact on this round of energy transformation.In the future,the growth rate of primary energy demand will slow down significantly,the energy efficiency will increase year by year,the trend of decoupling between economic increment and energy consumption increment will become increasingly obvious,and the large-scale power generation costs of various renewable energy are lower or close to the power generation cost of fossil energy.However,the carbon emission reduction situation still remains grim,and there are still some problems in the development of renewable energy.Under this background,major international oil companies are accelerating their transition to comprehensive international energy companies,increasing the layout of natural gas sector and entering new energy industry in due course.While increasing oil reserves and production as the main business and continuously increasing the investment in natural gas industry,Chinese oil companies should enhance the diversification of natural gas import sources,effectively promote the construction of natural gas whole industry chain,actively participate in the research and establishment of global natural gas trading system,carefully select the timing to enter the new energy market and the business operation mode,create the most competitive products and well-known brands for new energy,enhance the international competitiveness of the green industry,and actively seize the strategic high ground of digitalization transformation opportunities and promote the digitalization transformation of oil companies while focusing on the homogeneous competitive means such as technological innovation,cost reduction and efficiency improvement in traditional fields.
The current round of energy transformation is brewing.Although oil and natural gas will still play a dominant role in the future,the rapid development of renewable energy will push the world into an era of diversification in which traditional energy and renewable energy can coexist for a long time.At the same time,today′s society is facing dual challenges of the increasing energy demand and the greenhouse gas emis-sion reduction,and the low carbon development trend and the digitalization technology jointly have a subversive impact on this round of energy transformation.In the future,the growth rate of primary energy demand will slow down significantly,the energy efficiency will increase year by year,the trend of decoupling between economic increment and energy consumption increment will become increasingly obvious,and the large-scale power generation costs of various renewable energy are lower or close to the power generation cost of fossil energy.However,the carbon emission reduction situation still remains grim,and there are still some problems in the development of renewable energy.Under this background,major international oil companies are accelerating their transition to comprehensive international energy companies,increasing the layout of natural gas sector and entering new energy industry in due course.While increasing oil reserves and production as the main business and continuously increasing the investment in natural gas industry,Chinese oil companies should enhance the diversification of natural gas import sources,effectively promote the construction of natural gas whole industry chain,actively participate in the research and establishment of global natural gas trading system,carefully select the timing to enter the new energy market and the business operation mode,create the most competitive products and well-known brands for new energy,enhance the international competitiveness of the green industry,and actively seize the strategic high ground of digitalization transformation opportunities and promote the digitalization transformation of oil companies while focusing on the homogeneous competitive means such as technological innovation,cost reduction and efficiency improvement in traditional fields.
引文
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[11]能源杂志.油气巨头开发可再生能源BP已在同行中做到了第一[EB/OL].(2017-06-27).http://www.china-nengyuan.com/news/110493.html.
[2]Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.2018 World Oil Outlook 2040[R].Vienna:OPEC,2018.
[3]BP.BP Energy Outlook 2018 Edition[R].London:BP,2018.
[4]BP.BP Technology Outlook 2018[R].London:BP,2018.
[5]The International Renewable Energy Agency.Global Energy Transformation:A Roadmap to 2050[R].Masdar:IRENA,2018.
[6]The International Renewable Energy Agency.Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017[R].Masdar:IRENA,2018.
[7]International Energy Agency.Energy Efficiency 2018:Analysis and Outlooks to 2040[R].Paris:IEA,2018.
[8]彭博新能源财经.能源系统数字化[EB/OL].(2017-11-23).http://www.china-nengyuan.com/news/117231.html.
[9]林益楷.石油企业推进数字化转型趋势分析及建议[J].国际石油经济,2018,26(11):10-19.
[10]中国石油新闻中心.国际油气业务发展动向与趋势分析[EB/OL].(2018-12-21).http://news.cnpc.com.cn/system/2018/12/21/001714633.shtml.
[11]能源杂志.油气巨头开发可再生能源BP已在同行中做到了第一[EB/OL].(2017-06-27).http://www.china-nengyuan.com/news/110493.html.