后“伊斯兰国”时代印尼反恐战略的困境及其转型
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摘要
在后"伊斯兰国"时代,印尼亲"伊斯兰国"组织仍处于持续扩散与活跃中,其极端主义信仰越发顽固,行动则更难防范。同时,印尼对亲"伊斯兰国"恐怖分子"去激进化"改造失利。极端主义伊斯兰政党兴起对印尼赖以立国的潘查希拉原则构成了潜在的威胁。为遏制后"伊斯兰国"时代恐怖主义的挑战,印尼政府修正了之前较为温和的、被动防守型的"柔性反恐"战略,其反恐态度转而趋向于强硬和先发制人。印尼反恐战略的转型取得了积极的遏制效果,得到了国际社会的肯定。不过,当前转型中的印尼反恐战略本身也有一定的局限性,尚不能消除恐怖主义的根源,印尼甚至有舆论认为反恐战略的转型是对印尼民主制度和人权安全的一种侵害,这给印尼未来反恐带来了相当大的压
The"pro-Islamic State"terrorism organizations are still in the process of continuous expanding and growing in Indonesia in the era of"Post-Islamic State". The Islamic extremism beliefs of them are more stubborn and much harder to counter than before. At the same time,Indonesia almost failed to de-radicalize the pro-Islamic State terrorism prisoners,and the rise of extremism Islamic parties has posed a potential threat to the traditional Pancasila principles on which the Indonesians founded their country. In order to repress the new challenges of terrorism in the"post-Islamic State"era,the Indonesian government fundamentally revised its moderate and defense-oriented"soft strategy"of anti-terrorism. The Indonesian attitude to the terrorism became more uncompromising and preemptive. The transformation of Indonesian anti-terrorism strategy has achieved positive effects in repressing terrorism and has been affirmed by the international community. However,the current anti-terrorism strategy of Indonesia also has certain defects,and it cannot eliminate the root causes of terrorism. Furthermore,there are even some pubic opinions that the current transformation of the anti-terrorism strategy is an infringement on Indonesia's democracy and human rights,which has brought some considerable pressure and uncertainties to the future anti-terrorism of Indonesia.
The"pro-Islamic State"terrorism organizations are still in the process of continuous expanding and growing in Indonesia in the era of"Post-Islamic State". The Islamic extremism beliefs of them are more stubborn and much harder to counter than before. At the same time,Indonesia almost failed to de-radicalize the pro-Islamic State terrorism prisoners,and the rise of extremism Islamic parties has posed a potential threat to the traditional Pancasila principles on which the Indonesians founded their country. In order to repress the new challenges of terrorism in the"post-Islamic State"era,the Indonesian government fundamentally revised its moderate and defense-oriented"soft strategy"of anti-terrorism. The Indonesian attitude to the terrorism became more uncompromising and preemptive. The transformation of Indonesian anti-terrorism strategy has achieved positive effects in repressing terrorism and has been affirmed by the international community. However,the current anti-terrorism strategy of Indonesia also has certain defects,and it cannot eliminate the root causes of terrorism. Furthermore,there are even some pubic opinions that the current transformation of the anti-terrorism strategy is an infringement on Indonesia's democracy and human rights,which has brought some considerable pressure and uncertainties to the future anti-terrorism of Indonesia.
引文
[1]王利文:《东南亚边境安全与地区恐怖主义》,《南洋问题研究》2017年第4期,第23页。
[2]Global Terrorism Database,http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/(登陆时间:2018年3月1日).
[3]Institute for Economics and Peace,Global Terrorism Index 2016,http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf;http://www.businessinsider.com/global-terrorism-index-2015-2015-11(登陆时间:2018年6月1日).
[4]The Soufan Group,Foreign fighters:An Updated Assessment of the Flow of Foreign Fighters into Syria and Iraq,New York:The Soufan Group,2015,p.18.
[5]《印尼恐袭折射东南亚反恐之困》,《解放军报》2018年5月22日,第4版。
[6]《东南亚反恐合作任重道远》,《人民日报》2018年5月14日,第21版;《印尼泗水警察局袭击事件造成4人死亡6人受伤》,《人民日报》2018年5月15日,第21版。
[7]“Home-grown Terror Group JAD Remains A Threat in Indonesia Despite Crackdowns:Experts”,the Straits Time,October 22,2018,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/homegrown-terror-group-jad-remains-a-threat-in-indonesia-despite-crackdowns-experts(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[8]安高乐:《印尼与美国反恐合作及其柔性反恐研究》,《印度洋经济体研究》2015年第1期,第67页;Magnus Ranstorp,Preventing Violent Radicalization and Terrorism:The Case of Indonesia,Stockholm:Center for Asymmetric Studies,2009,p.19.
[9]Adi Renaldi,Can Indonesia Combat Radicalism By Having Terrorists Meet Their Victims?,https://www.vice.com/en_asia/article/59kada/can-indonesia-combat-radicalism-by-having-terrorists-meet-their-victims(登陆时间:2019年3月7日).
[10]Jarryd de Haan,Indonesia:Fight against Terror has Consequences and Failings,August 16,2018,p.4,http://www.futuredirections.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Indonesia-Fight-against-Terror-has-Consequences-and-Failings.pdf(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[11]MuhTaufiqurrohman,Muhammad Ali Usman and Ardi Putra,“Why Terrorism Breeds in Indonesian Prisons”,Today Online,http://www.todayonline.com/world/why-terrorism-breeds-indonesian-prisons(登陆时间:2018年7月1日).
[12]廖建裕:《印尼恐怖主义与新反恐举措》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年6月18日,第9版。
[13]AdiRenaldi,Terrorists Are Falling Through the Cracks of Indonesia’s Deradicalization Program,https://www.vice.com/en_id/article/jpnm88/terrorists-are-falling-through-the-cracks-of-de-radicalization-program(登陆时间:2018年10月1日).
[14]Ismira Lutfia Tisnadibrata,Indonesia:Govt officially disbands Islamist group Hizbut Tahrir,May 8,2017,https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/hti-effort-05082017181646.html(登陆时间:2019年3月6日).
[15]程家弘:《难以抵达的印尼排华真相》,《中国新闻周刊》2016年第17期(2016年5月16日版),第34页。
[16]《印尼强硬派穆斯林崛起,阻拦佐科连任总统》,http://www.yidianzixun.com/article/0JPJ9BjH(登陆时间:2019年1月6日)。
[17]Jon Emont,“Rise of hard-line Islamist groups alarms moderate Indonesian Muslims”,The Washington Post,May 7,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/rise-of-hard-line-islamist-groups-alarms-moderateindonesian-muslims/2017/05/05/0175c7e6-2f77-11e7-a335-fa0ae1940305_story.html?utm_term=.13067794d488(登陆时间:2019年3月7日).
[18]《反恐官员:印度尼西亚需要“更有力”反恐法律》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2016年1月18日,第2版。
[19]Indonesia Counterterrorism Bill 2017,October 10,2017,https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/supporting_resources/indonesia_counterterrorism_bill_2017_0.pdf(登陆时间:2018年10月15日).
[20][28]Oliver Ward,“Indonesia leads the way in counter-terrorism”,ASEAN Today,January 11,2018,https://www.aseantoday.com/2018/01/indonesia-leads-the-way-in-counter-terrorism-strategies/(登陆时间:2018年12月16日).
[21]Indonesia Addressing Terrorism from Its Roots,https://www.persecution.org/2018/07/27/indonesia-addressing-terrorism-roots/(登陆时间:2018年9月30日).
[22]John Mcbeth,“Indonesia Drills to the Roots of its Terror Problem”,Asian Times,July 27,2018,http://www.atimes.com/article/indonesia-drills-to-the-roots-of-its-terror-problem/(登陆时间:2018年10月30日).
[23][41][44][46]Brad Adams,Letter on Indonesia’s New Counterterrorism Law To President Joko Widodo and Speaker Bambang Soesatyo,June 20,2018,https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/20/letter-indonesias-new-counterterrorism-law(登陆时间:2019年1月20日).
[24]Indonesia Addressing Terrorism from Its Roots,https://www.persecution.org/2018/07/27/indonesia-addressing-terrorism-roots/(登陆时间:2018年9月30日).
[25]IPAC,Recent and Planned Releases of Indonesian Extremists:An Update,August 10,2018,p.1,http://file.understandingconflict.org/file/2018/08/IPAC_Report_49.pdf(登陆时间:2018年9月30日).
[26]《警方在国军支援下继续反恐》,《国际日报》(印尼)2018年5月23日,A1版。
[27]Indonesia Uses Tougher Anti-Terror Law to Detain Suspects for Holidays,https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-12-20/indonesia-uses-tougher-anti-terror-law-to-detain-suspects-for-holidays(登陆时间:2019年1月3日).
[29]《监控伊国组织联络网印尼反恐队今年扩大一倍》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年1月1日,第10版。
[30]Stoyan Zaimov,“Indonesia:90,000 soldiers to guard Christians in 50,000 churches for Christmas services”,the Christian Post,December 23,2018,https://www.christianpost.com/news/indonesia-90000-soldiers-to-guardchristians-in-50000-churches-for-christmas-services.html(登陆时间:2018年12月30日).
[31]席来旺:《防范恐袭,印尼强化网络监管》,《人民日报》2017年7月18日,第21版。
[32]《国会正式通过,印尼查禁极端组织强硬派穆斯林不满》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2017年10月25日,第14版。
[33]Institute for Economics and Peace,2018 Terrorism Index 2018,November 2018,p.8,http://visionofhumanity.org/reports(登陆时间:2018年12月30日).
[34]“Home-grown Terror Group JAD Remains A Threat in Indonesia Despite Crackdowns:Experts”,the Straits Time,October 22,2018,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/homegrown-terror-group-jad-remains-a-threat-inindonesia-despite-crackdowns-experts(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[35]Ainur Rohmah,“Deradicalization Through the Eyes of a Former Terrorist”,The Global Post,December 9,2017.
[36]《印尼通过新反恐法令加强执法力度》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年5月26日,第16版。
[37]《印尼国会吁颁布更严厉反恐法令》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2017年3月7日,第10版。
[38]PrashanthParameswaran,The Trouble With Indonesia’s New Counterterrorism Command,https://thediplomat.com/2015/06/the-trouble-with-indonesias-new-counterterrorism-command/(登陆时间:2017年12月10日).
[39]Chaula Anindya,“TNI’s Role in Counterrrorism:Impact on Military Reform”,RSIS Commentary,No.224-24,November 2017,https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/CO17224.pdf(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[40][42][43]Krithika Varagur,Activists:Indonesian Counter-terrorism Law Threatens Civil Liberties,May 30,2018,https://www.voanews.com/a/activists-indonesian-counterterrorism-law-threatens-civil-liberties/4416391.html(登陆时间:2018年10月10日).
[45]《印尼官方应用让公众检举异端思想》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年11月27日,第10版。
[2]Global Terrorism Database,http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/(登陆时间:2018年3月1日).
[3]Institute for Economics and Peace,Global Terrorism Index 2016,http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf;http://www.businessinsider.com/global-terrorism-index-2015-2015-11(登陆时间:2018年6月1日).
[4]The Soufan Group,Foreign fighters:An Updated Assessment of the Flow of Foreign Fighters into Syria and Iraq,New York:The Soufan Group,2015,p.18.
[5]《印尼恐袭折射东南亚反恐之困》,《解放军报》2018年5月22日,第4版。
[6]《东南亚反恐合作任重道远》,《人民日报》2018年5月14日,第21版;《印尼泗水警察局袭击事件造成4人死亡6人受伤》,《人民日报》2018年5月15日,第21版。
[7]“Home-grown Terror Group JAD Remains A Threat in Indonesia Despite Crackdowns:Experts”,the Straits Time,October 22,2018,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/homegrown-terror-group-jad-remains-a-threat-in-indonesia-despite-crackdowns-experts(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[8]安高乐:《印尼与美国反恐合作及其柔性反恐研究》,《印度洋经济体研究》2015年第1期,第67页;Magnus Ranstorp,Preventing Violent Radicalization and Terrorism:The Case of Indonesia,Stockholm:Center for Asymmetric Studies,2009,p.19.
[9]Adi Renaldi,Can Indonesia Combat Radicalism By Having Terrorists Meet Their Victims?,https://www.vice.com/en_asia/article/59kada/can-indonesia-combat-radicalism-by-having-terrorists-meet-their-victims(登陆时间:2019年3月7日).
[10]Jarryd de Haan,Indonesia:Fight against Terror has Consequences and Failings,August 16,2018,p.4,http://www.futuredirections.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Indonesia-Fight-against-Terror-has-Consequences-and-Failings.pdf(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[11]MuhTaufiqurrohman,Muhammad Ali Usman and Ardi Putra,“Why Terrorism Breeds in Indonesian Prisons”,Today Online,http://www.todayonline.com/world/why-terrorism-breeds-indonesian-prisons(登陆时间:2018年7月1日).
[12]廖建裕:《印尼恐怖主义与新反恐举措》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年6月18日,第9版。
[13]AdiRenaldi,Terrorists Are Falling Through the Cracks of Indonesia’s Deradicalization Program,https://www.vice.com/en_id/article/jpnm88/terrorists-are-falling-through-the-cracks-of-de-radicalization-program(登陆时间:2018年10月1日).
[14]Ismira Lutfia Tisnadibrata,Indonesia:Govt officially disbands Islamist group Hizbut Tahrir,May 8,2017,https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/hti-effort-05082017181646.html(登陆时间:2019年3月6日).
[15]程家弘:《难以抵达的印尼排华真相》,《中国新闻周刊》2016年第17期(2016年5月16日版),第34页。
[16]《印尼强硬派穆斯林崛起,阻拦佐科连任总统》,http://www.yidianzixun.com/article/0JPJ9BjH(登陆时间:2019年1月6日)。
[17]Jon Emont,“Rise of hard-line Islamist groups alarms moderate Indonesian Muslims”,The Washington Post,May 7,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/rise-of-hard-line-islamist-groups-alarms-moderateindonesian-muslims/2017/05/05/0175c7e6-2f77-11e7-a335-fa0ae1940305_story.html?utm_term=.13067794d488(登陆时间:2019年3月7日).
[18]《反恐官员:印度尼西亚需要“更有力”反恐法律》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2016年1月18日,第2版。
[19]Indonesia Counterterrorism Bill 2017,October 10,2017,https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/supporting_resources/indonesia_counterterrorism_bill_2017_0.pdf(登陆时间:2018年10月15日).
[20][28]Oliver Ward,“Indonesia leads the way in counter-terrorism”,ASEAN Today,January 11,2018,https://www.aseantoday.com/2018/01/indonesia-leads-the-way-in-counter-terrorism-strategies/(登陆时间:2018年12月16日).
[21]Indonesia Addressing Terrorism from Its Roots,https://www.persecution.org/2018/07/27/indonesia-addressing-terrorism-roots/(登陆时间:2018年9月30日).
[22]John Mcbeth,“Indonesia Drills to the Roots of its Terror Problem”,Asian Times,July 27,2018,http://www.atimes.com/article/indonesia-drills-to-the-roots-of-its-terror-problem/(登陆时间:2018年10月30日).
[23][41][44][46]Brad Adams,Letter on Indonesia’s New Counterterrorism Law To President Joko Widodo and Speaker Bambang Soesatyo,June 20,2018,https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/20/letter-indonesias-new-counterterrorism-law(登陆时间:2019年1月20日).
[24]Indonesia Addressing Terrorism from Its Roots,https://www.persecution.org/2018/07/27/indonesia-addressing-terrorism-roots/(登陆时间:2018年9月30日).
[25]IPAC,Recent and Planned Releases of Indonesian Extremists:An Update,August 10,2018,p.1,http://file.understandingconflict.org/file/2018/08/IPAC_Report_49.pdf(登陆时间:2018年9月30日).
[26]《警方在国军支援下继续反恐》,《国际日报》(印尼)2018年5月23日,A1版。
[27]Indonesia Uses Tougher Anti-Terror Law to Detain Suspects for Holidays,https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-12-20/indonesia-uses-tougher-anti-terror-law-to-detain-suspects-for-holidays(登陆时间:2019年1月3日).
[29]《监控伊国组织联络网印尼反恐队今年扩大一倍》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年1月1日,第10版。
[30]Stoyan Zaimov,“Indonesia:90,000 soldiers to guard Christians in 50,000 churches for Christmas services”,the Christian Post,December 23,2018,https://www.christianpost.com/news/indonesia-90000-soldiers-to-guardchristians-in-50000-churches-for-christmas-services.html(登陆时间:2018年12月30日).
[31]席来旺:《防范恐袭,印尼强化网络监管》,《人民日报》2017年7月18日,第21版。
[32]《国会正式通过,印尼查禁极端组织强硬派穆斯林不满》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2017年10月25日,第14版。
[33]Institute for Economics and Peace,2018 Terrorism Index 2018,November 2018,p.8,http://visionofhumanity.org/reports(登陆时间:2018年12月30日).
[34]“Home-grown Terror Group JAD Remains A Threat in Indonesia Despite Crackdowns:Experts”,the Straits Time,October 22,2018,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/homegrown-terror-group-jad-remains-a-threat-inindonesia-despite-crackdowns-experts(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[35]Ainur Rohmah,“Deradicalization Through the Eyes of a Former Terrorist”,The Global Post,December 9,2017.
[36]《印尼通过新反恐法令加强执法力度》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年5月26日,第16版。
[37]《印尼国会吁颁布更严厉反恐法令》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2017年3月7日,第10版。
[38]PrashanthParameswaran,The Trouble With Indonesia’s New Counterterrorism Command,https://thediplomat.com/2015/06/the-trouble-with-indonesias-new-counterterrorism-command/(登陆时间:2017年12月10日).
[39]Chaula Anindya,“TNI’s Role in Counterrrorism:Impact on Military Reform”,RSIS Commentary,No.224-24,November 2017,https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/CO17224.pdf(登陆时间:2018年9月10日).
[40][42][43]Krithika Varagur,Activists:Indonesian Counter-terrorism Law Threatens Civil Liberties,May 30,2018,https://www.voanews.com/a/activists-indonesian-counterterrorism-law-threatens-civil-liberties/4416391.html(登陆时间:2018年10月10日).
[45]《印尼官方应用让公众检举异端思想》,《联合早报》(新加坡)2018年11月27日,第10版。