重庆市三峡库区产业结构演进与城镇化互动:理论机制与实证分析
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摘要
中国正处于新型城镇化、新型工业化和产业结构转型的新常态时期,深刻认识产业结构演进与城镇化之间内在协同发展规律对库区产业结构升级与城镇化发展有很好的指导意义。以重庆市范围内库区12区县1987—2014年年度数据,基于误差修正的Johansen协整和Granger因果关系检验,考察库区产业结构演进与城镇化互动机制。结果发现:三峡库区的产业结构演进与城镇化发展之间具有稳定的互动协调关系,产业结构演进促进了城镇化发展,服务业对城镇化发展的促进作用小于工业;城镇化推进了产业结构演进,促进了工业和服务业产值的增加。
China is in the "new normal " phase in which China is on the road to new-style urbanization、new-style industrialization and industrial structure transformation,so deep understanding the inherent law of development between industrial structure evolution and urbanization is of important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first analyzes the present situations and problems of industrial structure evolution and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Chongqing; then this paper illustrated the interactive mechanism between industrial structure evolution and urbanization;thirdly,according to the data of 12 districts and counties in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Chongqing from 1987 to 2014, this paper empirically testes the interactive relationship between industrial structure evolution and urbanization by using Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test.The results suggest that there is a long-run interactive relationship between industrial structureevolution and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. According to the above conclusion,this paper gives some proposals to improve the industrial structure evolution and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
China is in the "new normal " phase in which China is on the road to new-style urbanization、new-style industrialization and industrial structure transformation,so deep understanding the inherent law of development between industrial structure evolution and urbanization is of important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first analyzes the present situations and problems of industrial structure evolution and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Chongqing; then this paper illustrated the interactive mechanism between industrial structure evolution and urbanization;thirdly,according to the data of 12 districts and counties in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Chongqing from 1987 to 2014, this paper empirically testes the interactive relationship between industrial structure evolution and urbanization by using Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test.The results suggest that there is a long-run interactive relationship between industrial structureevolution and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. According to the above conclusion,this paper gives some proposals to improve the industrial structure evolution and urbanization in Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
引文
[1]陈斌开,林毅夫.发展战略、城市化与中国城乡收入差距[J].中国社会科学,2013(4):81-102.
[2]徐盈之,朱依曦.产业集聚的经济效应区域化还是城市化——基于中国航空航天制造业的研究[J].科学学研究,2010,28(5):719-726.
[3]CHENERY H B,SYRQUIN M.Patterns of development,1950—1970[M].New York:Oxford university press for the World Bank,1975:91-96.
[4]LEWIS W A.Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor[J].Manchester school,1954,22(2):139-191.
[5]沈正平.优化产业结构与提升城镇化质量的互动机制及实现途径[J].城市发展研究,2013(5):70-75.
[6]万广华,蔡昉.中国的城市化道路与发展战略:理论探讨和实证分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2012:135-137.
[7]杨梅.湖北产业结构与城镇化的演进特征及关联[J].武汉交通职业技术学院学报,2012(3):33-36.
[8]杨立勋,姜增明.产业结构与城镇化匹配协调及其效率分析[J].经济问题探索,2013(10):34-39.
[9]黄木易,程志光.区域城市化与社会经济耦合协调发展度的时空特征分析——以安徽省为例[J].经济地理,2012,32(2):77-81.
[10]王筱欣,祁子祥.重庆市三次产业结构合理性分析[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学),2015(1):66-70.
[11]重庆市经济信息中心,重庆市综合经济研究院.2014年重庆经济展望[M].重庆:重庆出版社,2013:388-436.
[12]牟文琴,陈佳,白慧,等.三峡库区城镇化、工业化与经济增长研究[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2015(6):1-7.
[13]赵可,李平,张安录.经济增长质量对城市建设用地扩张的影响分析——基于全要素生产率视角[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学),2012(2):53-57.
[14]白忠菊,藏波,杨庆媛.基于脱钩理论的城市扩张速度与经济发展的时空耦合研究——以重庆市为例[J].经济地理,2013,33(8):52-60.
[15]刘维奇,韩媛媛.城市化与城乡收入差距——基于中国数据的理论与经验研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2013(5):24-33.
[16]张培刚,张建华.发展经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2009:350-438.
[17]詹懿.再工业化背景下的重庆市传统产业升级研究[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2014(6):50-54.
(1)根据国际对城镇化阶段的划分,城镇化在18 .75%以下是起始阶段,18 .75%~52.5%是加速阶段,52 .5%以上是成熟阶段。
[2]徐盈之,朱依曦.产业集聚的经济效应区域化还是城市化——基于中国航空航天制造业的研究[J].科学学研究,2010,28(5):719-726.
[3]CHENERY H B,SYRQUIN M.Patterns of development,1950—1970[M].New York:Oxford university press for the World Bank,1975:91-96.
[4]LEWIS W A.Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor[J].Manchester school,1954,22(2):139-191.
[5]沈正平.优化产业结构与提升城镇化质量的互动机制及实现途径[J].城市发展研究,2013(5):70-75.
[6]万广华,蔡昉.中国的城市化道路与发展战略:理论探讨和实证分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2012:135-137.
[7]杨梅.湖北产业结构与城镇化的演进特征及关联[J].武汉交通职业技术学院学报,2012(3):33-36.
[8]杨立勋,姜增明.产业结构与城镇化匹配协调及其效率分析[J].经济问题探索,2013(10):34-39.
[9]黄木易,程志光.区域城市化与社会经济耦合协调发展度的时空特征分析——以安徽省为例[J].经济地理,2012,32(2):77-81.
[10]王筱欣,祁子祥.重庆市三次产业结构合理性分析[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学),2015(1):66-70.
[11]重庆市经济信息中心,重庆市综合经济研究院.2014年重庆经济展望[M].重庆:重庆出版社,2013:388-436.
[12]牟文琴,陈佳,白慧,等.三峡库区城镇化、工业化与经济增长研究[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2015(6):1-7.
[13]赵可,李平,张安录.经济增长质量对城市建设用地扩张的影响分析——基于全要素生产率视角[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学),2012(2):53-57.
[14]白忠菊,藏波,杨庆媛.基于脱钩理论的城市扩张速度与经济发展的时空耦合研究——以重庆市为例[J].经济地理,2013,33(8):52-60.
[15]刘维奇,韩媛媛.城市化与城乡收入差距——基于中国数据的理论与经验研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2013(5):24-33.
[16]张培刚,张建华.发展经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2009:350-438.
[17]詹懿.再工业化背景下的重庆市传统产业升级研究[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2014(6):50-54.
(1)根据国际对城镇化阶段的划分,城镇化在18 .75%以下是起始阶段,18 .75%~52.5%是加速阶段,52 .5%以上是成熟阶段。