土地覆被和气候变化对锡林河流域径流量的影响
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摘要
土地覆被和气候变化是影响流域水资源宏观调控以及合理规划的两个主要因素,以锡林河流域为研究区,借助锡林浩特及周边4个国家气象站点,通过设定情景模式与SWAT模型相结合的方法分别对其进行了分析研究。通过极端土地利用法对研究区内土地利用/覆被设定不同情景模式,研究了土地利用/覆被变化对径流量的影响,另外采用最新的气候模式CMIP5的两种RCP排放情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5,预测了未来气温、降水、径流的变化情形。结果表明:土地变化对径流量的年际变化影响较弱,但对于汛期径流量影响显著;研究区径流量对气候表现敏感程度非常显著,未来最低、最高气温均表现出增温趋势且未来降水、径流变化趋势基本保持一致,呈增长趋势。
Land cover and climate change are two main factors that affect the macro-control and reasonable planning of water resources in the river basin. Xilinhe River Basin was used as a research area, and Xilinhot and its four national meteorological stations were used to set the scenario model and SWAT model. The combined method was used to analyze and study separately. Through the extreme land use method, different scenarios for land use/coverage in the study area were set up to study the impact of land use/climate change on the runoff. In addition, the latest two RCP emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of climate model CMIP5 were used to predict future changes in temperature, precipitation, and runoff. The following research results are obtained. Land change had weaker impact on inter-annual change of runoff, but it had significant impact on runoff during flood season; runoff in the study area was very sensitive to climate change, and future minimum and maximum temperatures show warming trends. The future trends of precipitation and runoff remain basically the same, showing the increasing trend.
Land cover and climate change are two main factors that affect the macro-control and reasonable planning of water resources in the river basin. Xilinhe River Basin was used as a research area, and Xilinhot and its four national meteorological stations were used to set the scenario model and SWAT model. The combined method was used to analyze and study separately. Through the extreme land use method, different scenarios for land use/coverage in the study area were set up to study the impact of land use/climate change on the runoff. In addition, the latest two RCP emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of climate model CMIP5 were used to predict future changes in temperature, precipitation, and runoff. The following research results are obtained. Land change had weaker impact on inter-annual change of runoff, but it had significant impact on runoff during flood season; runoff in the study area was very sensitive to climate change, and future minimum and maximum temperatures show warming trends. The future trends of precipitation and runoff remain basically the same, showing the increasing trend.
引文
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[18]祁敏,张超.基于SWAT模型的阿克苏河流域径流模拟[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):283-287.
[19]刘闻.基于SWAT模型的水文模拟及径流响应分析[D]西安:西北大学,2014.
[20]寇丽敏,刘建卫,张慧哲,等.基于SWAT模型的洮儿河流域气候变化的水文响应[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(2):12-16.
[21]高超,刘莉,王紫霞,许月萍.黄河唐乃亥以上流域降雨偏差纠正方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(9):29-39.
[22]陈敏鹏,林而达.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战[J].氣候變化研究進展,2010,6(6):436-442.
[23]Kosaka Y , Xie S P . Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature,2013,501(7467)403-407.
[24]吴晶,罗毅,李佳,等. CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):499-508.
[25]杨立哲.气候变化与草地退化对锡林河流域水文过程的影响模拟[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2014.
[2]Li Z, Liu W, Zhang X, et al. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 377(1):35-42.
[3]Jiang D, Li L, Li J. Runoff variation affected by precipitation change and human activity in Hailiutu River basin, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment, 2014,12(2):116-122.
[4]杨满根.气候变化和土地利用变化背景下淮河流域中上游径流变化研究[D]南京:南京大学,2016.
[5]Sun G, McNulty S G, Moore Myers J A, et al. Impacts of multiple stresses on water demand and supply across the southeastern United States[J]. Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2008,44(6):1441-1457.
[6]莫淑红,王学凤,勾奎,等.气候变化和人类活动对灞河流域径流情势的影响分析[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(9):7-17.
[7]宋小园.气候变化和人类活动影响下锡林河流域水文过程响应研究[D]呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2016.
[8]Legesse D, Vallet-Coulomb C, Gasse F. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia[J]. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 2003,275(1/2):67-85.
[9]杨沫霞,马文林,张质明,等.土地利用变化和气候变化对温榆河上游流域径流变化的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(3):72-78.
[10]裴亮,刘阳,陈晨.大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化及其对气候变化的响应研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1403-1410.
[11]王云琦,齐实,孙阁,等.气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响:以美国北卡罗莱纳州Trent流域为例[J].水科学进展,2011,22(1):51-58.
[12]张建云,王国庆,贺瑞敏,等.黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2):153-158.
[13]张圣微,雷玉平,姚琴,等.土地覆被和气候变化对拉萨河流域径流量的影响[J].水资源保护,2010,26(2):39-44.
[14]杨笑宇,林朝晖,王雨曦,等. CMIP5耦合模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟及预估[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(3):253-270.
[15]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.基于CMIP5模式的干旱内陆河流域未来气候变化预估[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(5):987-996.
[16]韩砚君.锡林河流域近三十年草原植被格局动态及其驱动力分析[D]呼和浩特:内蒙古大学,2013.
[17]柳艺博,居为民,朱高龙,等.内蒙古不同类型草地叶面积指数遥感估算[J].生态学报,2011,31(18):5159-5170.
[18]祁敏,张超.基于SWAT模型的阿克苏河流域径流模拟[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):283-287.
[19]刘闻.基于SWAT模型的水文模拟及径流响应分析[D]西安:西北大学,2014.
[20]寇丽敏,刘建卫,张慧哲,等.基于SWAT模型的洮儿河流域气候变化的水文响应[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(2):12-16.
[21]高超,刘莉,王紫霞,许月萍.黄河唐乃亥以上流域降雨偏差纠正方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(9):29-39.
[22]陈敏鹏,林而达.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战[J].氣候變化研究進展,2010,6(6):436-442.
[23]Kosaka Y , Xie S P . Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature,2013,501(7467)403-407.
[24]吴晶,罗毅,李佳,等. CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):499-508.
[25]杨立哲.气候变化与草地退化对锡林河流域水文过程的影响模拟[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2014.