中国干旱内陆河出山径流对流域气象要素与全球气象指数的响应特征研究
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摘要
干旱内陆河出山径流及其影响因素分析对于流域水资源评价、流域经济生态安全保障具有重要意义。基于1960—2012年塔里木河流域"三源流"与黑河流域的出山径流、降水、气温资料及4个全球气象指数监测数据,采用小波分析方法研究了各水文气象要素的周期特征,以及流域出山径流对气象要素与气象指数的响应特征。结果表明:(1)各水文气象因子多具有1～2个显著周期,周期多在2～7 a尺度范围内。(2)叶尔羌河、黑河出山径流与流域降水分别在6～17 a、2～16 a周期上关系显著。各出山径流与流域降水、气温的多尺度共振周期性差异,反映了各径流来源构成及其与气象要素年际动态方面的差异。(3)各流域出山径流对气象指数的响应特征不同,这在显著时频域以及径流响应时滞等方面均有表现。此研究可为气候变化条件下干旱内陆河流域生态—水文过程响应及水资源管理提供依据。
Analysis of mountainous runoffs of the inland rivers in the arid areas of China and their influence factors has great significance in the evaluation of their basin water resources and the insurance of basin economic and ecological safety. Based on mountainous runoffs,precipitation and air temperature data of three sub-basins in Tarim River Basin( TRB),the Aksu River Basin( ARB),Yarkand River Basin( YRB) and Hotan River Basin( HTRB),and Heihe River Basin( HRB),together with four climate indices,the Southern Oscillation Index( SOI),North Atlantic Oscillation( NAO),Arctic Oscillation( AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation( PDO) from1960 to 2012,multi-scale periodicities of the hydrological and meteorological elements,and the response characteristics of the mountainous runoffs to watershed meteorological elements and global climate indices are systematically investigated in this paper by adopting methods of wavelet analysis,including Continuous Wavelet Transform( WT),Cross Wavelet Transform( XWT) and Wavelet Coherence( WTC). The results show that the multi-scale periodicities of SOI are 3-5 a,11-12 a and the multi-scale periodicities of PDO are 4-6 a,9-10 a. The multi-scale periodicities of NAO and AO are 2-4 a in 1960 s. The periodicities of precipitation in all basins are 2-4 a,4-7 a,and that of air temperature are 2-5 a. The periodicities of mountainous runoffs are 2-5 a except for the Yarkand River. Whole time significant resonance periodicity of 6-17 a is identified between precipitation and mountainous runoff in YRB,and periodicity of 2-16 a is identified in HRB. Significant resonance periodicities of 3-5 a are identified between air temperature and mountainous runoffs in ARB,YRB and HTRB. The multiple-scale resonance periodicities between runoffs and watershed precipitation and temperature reflect the differences of runoff source compositions and inter-annual dynamics of both runoffs and meteorological elements. The response characteristics of the runoffs to the climate indices are different,which have performance in the significant time-frequency domains and the runoff response time lags. The findings and methods presented here help understand the response of mountainous runoffs of the inland river basins in the arid areas to meteorological elements and climate indices,and expand the knowledge and usable toolbox of approaches that can be used by the related people and scientists to improve eco-hydraulic processes and water resource planning and operations under future climate uncertainty.
Analysis of mountainous runoffs of the inland rivers in the arid areas of China and their influence factors has great significance in the evaluation of their basin water resources and the insurance of basin economic and ecological safety. Based on mountainous runoffs,precipitation and air temperature data of three sub-basins in Tarim River Basin( TRB),the Aksu River Basin( ARB),Yarkand River Basin( YRB) and Hotan River Basin( HTRB),and Heihe River Basin( HRB),together with four climate indices,the Southern Oscillation Index( SOI),North Atlantic Oscillation( NAO),Arctic Oscillation( AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation( PDO) from1960 to 2012,multi-scale periodicities of the hydrological and meteorological elements,and the response characteristics of the mountainous runoffs to watershed meteorological elements and global climate indices are systematically investigated in this paper by adopting methods of wavelet analysis,including Continuous Wavelet Transform( WT),Cross Wavelet Transform( XWT) and Wavelet Coherence( WTC). The results show that the multi-scale periodicities of SOI are 3-5 a,11-12 a and the multi-scale periodicities of PDO are 4-6 a,9-10 a. The multi-scale periodicities of NAO and AO are 2-4 a in 1960 s. The periodicities of precipitation in all basins are 2-4 a,4-7 a,and that of air temperature are 2-5 a. The periodicities of mountainous runoffs are 2-5 a except for the Yarkand River. Whole time significant resonance periodicity of 6-17 a is identified between precipitation and mountainous runoff in YRB,and periodicity of 2-16 a is identified in HRB. Significant resonance periodicities of 3-5 a are identified between air temperature and mountainous runoffs in ARB,YRB and HTRB. The multiple-scale resonance periodicities between runoffs and watershed precipitation and temperature reflect the differences of runoff source compositions and inter-annual dynamics of both runoffs and meteorological elements. The response characteristics of the runoffs to the climate indices are different,which have performance in the significant time-frequency domains and the runoff response time lags. The findings and methods presented here help understand the response of mountainous runoffs of the inland river basins in the arid areas to meteorological elements and climate indices,and expand the knowledge and usable toolbox of approaches that can be used by the related people and scientists to improve eco-hydraulic processes and water resource planning and operations under future climate uncertainty.
引文
[1]李文鹏,康卫东,刘振英,等.西北典型内流盆地水资源调控与优化利用模式—以黑河流域为例[M].北京:地质出版社,2010.[LI Wenpeng,KANG Weidong,LIU Zhenying,et al. Water resources regulation and optimal utilization modes of typical interior river basin in northwest China:A case study of Heihe River Basin[M]. Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2010.]
[2]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.[CHEN Yaning,LI Zhi,FAN Yuting,et al. Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(9):1295-1304.]
[3]陈忠升.中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.[CHEN Zhongsheng. Quantitative identification of river runoff change and its attribution in the arid region of northwest China[D]. Shanghai:East China Normal University,2016.]
[4]孙鹏,张强,白云岗,等.塔里木河流域径流量周期特征及其影响因素[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):216-222.[SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,BAI Yungang,et al. Periodic properties of runoff changes of the Tarim River Basin:Possible causes and implications[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(2):216-222.]
[5]傅丽昕,陈亚宁,李卫红,等.塔里木河源流区近50 a径流量与气候变化关系研究[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(1):204-209.[FU Lixin,CHEN Yaning,LI Weihong,et al. Relation between climate change and runoff volume in the headwaters of the Tarim River during the last 50 years[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2010,30(1):204-209.]
[6]王伏村,付双喜,王旭东,等.河西走廊春末夏初降水异常与大气环流及海温场关系[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):381-389.[WANG Fucun,FU Shuangxi,WANG Xudong,et al. Relations between precipitation anomaly in late spring and early summer in Hexi Corridor and atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(2):381-389.]
[7]李艳春,杨建玲,朱晓炜.赤道中东太平洋关键区海温对宁夏春季降水的影响[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1087-1094.[LI Yanchun,YANG Jianling,ZHU Xiaowei. Effect of equatorial east Pacific SST of key areas on spring rainfall in Ningxia[J]. Arid Land Geography,2015,38(6):1087-1094.]
[8] LI B F,CHEN Y N,SHI X. Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of northwest China?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2012,117:D16115.
[9]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.黑河流域气象要素与全球性大气环流特征量的多尺度遥相关分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(3):564-572.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao,et al. Multiscale teleconnections between meteorological elements of Heihe River Basin and global climate indices[J]. Arid Land Geography,2017,40(3):564-572.]
[10]张耀宗,张勃,刘艳艳,等. 1960—2012年宁夏强干旱时空格局及影响因素分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):120-127.[ZHANG Yaozong,ZHANG Bo,LIU Yanyan,et al. Spatial and temporal pattern of strong drought and its influence factors in Ningxia from 1960—2012[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(1):120-127.]
[11]刘志方,刘友存,郝永红,等.黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(6):1136-1146.[LIU Zhifang,LIU Youcun,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multitime scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in the upstream of Heihe River[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(6):1136-1146.]
[12]顾西辉,张强,刘剑宇,等.新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):501-511.[GU Xihui,ZHANG Qiang,LIU Jianyu,et al. Temporal clustering of the Tarim River floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns[J]. Advances in Water Science,2016,27(4):501-511.]
[13]周仰效.娘子关泉流量的时间序列叠加模型[J].工程勘察,1986,(4):31-34.[ZHOU Yangxiao. Time series superposition model of discharge of Niangziguan spring[J]. Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,1986,(4):31-34.]
[14] KUSS A J M,GURDAK J J. Groundwater level response in U. S.principal aquifers to ENSO,NAO,PDO,and AMO[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2014,519(B):1939-1952.
[15]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.济南岩溶泉域地下水位、降水、气温与大尺度气象模式的遥相关[J].水文地质工程地质,2015,42(6):18-28.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao,et al. Teleconnections between groundwater levels,precipitation,air temperature of the Jinan karst springs watershed and large scale climatic patterns[J]. Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2015,42(6):18-28.]
[16]花婷,王训明,郎丽丽,等.甘肃省气温与降水变化趋势及其对主要流域径流量的影响[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):744-752.[HUA Ting,WANG Xunming,LANG Lili,et al. Climate change and its significance on the runoff of major rivers in Gansu,China from 1961 to 2011[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2015,35(3):744-752.]
[17]刘友存,刘志方,郝永红,等.基于交叉小波的天山乌鲁木齐河出山径流多尺度特征研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(6):1564-1572.[LIU Youcun,LIU Zhifang,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multitime scale features of runoff on cross-wavelet transformation in the upstream of Urumqi River,Tianshan Mountain[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(6):1564-1572.]
[18] TORRENCE C,COMPO G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
[19] GRINSTED A,MOORE J C,JEVREJEVA S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2004,11(5-6):561-566.
[20]祁晓凡,杨丽芝,韩晔,等.济南泉域地下水位动态及其对降水响应的交叉小波分析[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(9):969-978.[QI Xiaofan,YANG Lizhi,HAN Ye,et al. Cross wavelet analysis of groundwater level regimes and precipitation-groundwater level regime in Ji’nan spring region[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2012,27(9):969-978.]
[21]祁晓凡,李文鹏,杨丽芝,等.济南白泉泉域地下水位动态对降水响应的年内时滞分析[J].地球与环境,2015,43(6):619-627.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,YANG Lizhi,et al. The lag analysis of groundwater level anomalies to precipitation anomaly of Ji’nan springs watershed[J]. Earth and Environment,2015,43(6):619-627.]
[22]祁晓凡,王雨山,杨丽芝,等.近50年济南岩溶泉域地下水位对降水响应的时滞差异[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(4):384-393.[QI Xiaofan,WANG Yushan,YANG Lizhi,et al. Time lags variance of groundwater level response to precipitation of Ji’nan karst spring watershed in recent 50 years[J]. Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(4):384-393.]
[23]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.水文时间序列分析方法研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(1):20-30.[SANG Yanfang,WANG Zhonggen,LIU Changming. Research progress on the time series analysis methods in hydrology[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(1):20-30.]
[24]李奇虎.西北干旱区气候变化及其对水文过程的影响[D].上海:华东师范大学,2012.[LI Qihu. Climate change spatiotemporal features and impacton hydrological process in northwest arid area of China[D]. Shanghai:East China Normal University,2012.]
[25]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.基于CMIP5模式的干旱内陆河流域未来气候变化预估[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(5):987-996.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao,et al. Future climate change prediction of arid inland river basin based on CMIP5 model[J]. Arid Land Geography,2017,40(5):987-996.]
[25]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛.基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(4):849-857.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao. Prediction and trend of future potential evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin based on CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2018,38(4):849-857.]
[2]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.[CHEN Yaning,LI Zhi,FAN Yuting,et al. Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(9):1295-1304.]
[3]陈忠升.中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.[CHEN Zhongsheng. Quantitative identification of river runoff change and its attribution in the arid region of northwest China[D]. Shanghai:East China Normal University,2016.]
[4]孙鹏,张强,白云岗,等.塔里木河流域径流量周期特征及其影响因素[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):216-222.[SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,BAI Yungang,et al. Periodic properties of runoff changes of the Tarim River Basin:Possible causes and implications[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(2):216-222.]
[5]傅丽昕,陈亚宁,李卫红,等.塔里木河源流区近50 a径流量与气候变化关系研究[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(1):204-209.[FU Lixin,CHEN Yaning,LI Weihong,et al. Relation between climate change and runoff volume in the headwaters of the Tarim River during the last 50 years[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2010,30(1):204-209.]
[6]王伏村,付双喜,王旭东,等.河西走廊春末夏初降水异常与大气环流及海温场关系[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):381-389.[WANG Fucun,FU Shuangxi,WANG Xudong,et al. Relations between precipitation anomaly in late spring and early summer in Hexi Corridor and atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(2):381-389.]
[7]李艳春,杨建玲,朱晓炜.赤道中东太平洋关键区海温对宁夏春季降水的影响[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1087-1094.[LI Yanchun,YANG Jianling,ZHU Xiaowei. Effect of equatorial east Pacific SST of key areas on spring rainfall in Ningxia[J]. Arid Land Geography,2015,38(6):1087-1094.]
[8] LI B F,CHEN Y N,SHI X. Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of northwest China?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2012,117:D16115.
[9]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.黑河流域气象要素与全球性大气环流特征量的多尺度遥相关分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(3):564-572.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao,et al. Multiscale teleconnections between meteorological elements of Heihe River Basin and global climate indices[J]. Arid Land Geography,2017,40(3):564-572.]
[10]张耀宗,张勃,刘艳艳,等. 1960—2012年宁夏强干旱时空格局及影响因素分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):120-127.[ZHANG Yaozong,ZHANG Bo,LIU Yanyan,et al. Spatial and temporal pattern of strong drought and its influence factors in Ningxia from 1960—2012[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(1):120-127.]
[11]刘志方,刘友存,郝永红,等.黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(6):1136-1146.[LIU Zhifang,LIU Youcun,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multitime scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in the upstream of Heihe River[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(6):1136-1146.]
[12]顾西辉,张强,刘剑宇,等.新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):501-511.[GU Xihui,ZHANG Qiang,LIU Jianyu,et al. Temporal clustering of the Tarim River floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns[J]. Advances in Water Science,2016,27(4):501-511.]
[13]周仰效.娘子关泉流量的时间序列叠加模型[J].工程勘察,1986,(4):31-34.[ZHOU Yangxiao. Time series superposition model of discharge of Niangziguan spring[J]. Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,1986,(4):31-34.]
[14] KUSS A J M,GURDAK J J. Groundwater level response in U. S.principal aquifers to ENSO,NAO,PDO,and AMO[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2014,519(B):1939-1952.
[15]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.济南岩溶泉域地下水位、降水、气温与大尺度气象模式的遥相关[J].水文地质工程地质,2015,42(6):18-28.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao,et al. Teleconnections between groundwater levels,precipitation,air temperature of the Jinan karst springs watershed and large scale climatic patterns[J]. Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2015,42(6):18-28.]
[16]花婷,王训明,郎丽丽,等.甘肃省气温与降水变化趋势及其对主要流域径流量的影响[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):744-752.[HUA Ting,WANG Xunming,LANG Lili,et al. Climate change and its significance on the runoff of major rivers in Gansu,China from 1961 to 2011[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2015,35(3):744-752.]
[17]刘友存,刘志方,郝永红,等.基于交叉小波的天山乌鲁木齐河出山径流多尺度特征研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(6):1564-1572.[LIU Youcun,LIU Zhifang,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multitime scale features of runoff on cross-wavelet transformation in the upstream of Urumqi River,Tianshan Mountain[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(6):1564-1572.]
[18] TORRENCE C,COMPO G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
[19] GRINSTED A,MOORE J C,JEVREJEVA S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2004,11(5-6):561-566.
[20]祁晓凡,杨丽芝,韩晔,等.济南泉域地下水位动态及其对降水响应的交叉小波分析[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(9):969-978.[QI Xiaofan,YANG Lizhi,HAN Ye,et al. Cross wavelet analysis of groundwater level regimes and precipitation-groundwater level regime in Ji’nan spring region[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2012,27(9):969-978.]
[21]祁晓凡,李文鹏,杨丽芝,等.济南白泉泉域地下水位动态对降水响应的年内时滞分析[J].地球与环境,2015,43(6):619-627.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,YANG Lizhi,et al. The lag analysis of groundwater level anomalies to precipitation anomaly of Ji’nan springs watershed[J]. Earth and Environment,2015,43(6):619-627.]
[22]祁晓凡,王雨山,杨丽芝,等.近50年济南岩溶泉域地下水位对降水响应的时滞差异[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(4):384-393.[QI Xiaofan,WANG Yushan,YANG Lizhi,et al. Time lags variance of groundwater level response to precipitation of Ji’nan karst spring watershed in recent 50 years[J]. Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(4):384-393.]
[23]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.水文时间序列分析方法研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(1):20-30.[SANG Yanfang,WANG Zhonggen,LIU Changming. Research progress on the time series analysis methods in hydrology[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(1):20-30.]
[24]李奇虎.西北干旱区气候变化及其对水文过程的影响[D].上海:华东师范大学,2012.[LI Qihu. Climate change spatiotemporal features and impacton hydrological process in northwest arid area of China[D]. Shanghai:East China Normal University,2012.]
[25]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛,等.基于CMIP5模式的干旱内陆河流域未来气候变化预估[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(5):987-996.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao,et al. Future climate change prediction of arid inland river basin based on CMIP5 model[J]. Arid Land Geography,2017,40(5):987-996.]
[25]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛.基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(4):849-857.[QI Xiaofan,LI Wenpeng,LI Haitao. Prediction and trend of future potential evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin based on CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2018,38(4):849-857.]