基于综合强度指数的黄淮海地区干热风灾害时空特征
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摘要
干热风是影响黄淮海地区冬小麦后期生长和产量形成的重大气象灾害之一,本研究基于干热风综合强度指数(CID),利用黄淮海冬麦主产区65个站点1961—2015年的逐日气象数据和冬小麦生育期资料,分析了该地区干热风强度的时空变化特征。完成了过去55 a区域干热风年型的反演,表明黄淮海地区有半数以上的年份会出现区域性干热风灾害,55 a间分别有21 a、10 a达到轻度、重度干热风强度等级,其中1961、1965和2001年的强度分列前3位。干热风年型机遇的地理分布,河南中部和北部、山东中西部、河北和京津大部≥3遇/10 a,其中河北中南部、北京南部、山东北部、河南北部部分地区超过5遇/10 a,是干热风重点防范区域。从年际变化来看,黄淮海地区干热风强度总体呈减轻趋势,其中在干热风多发区、危害集中区减轻趋势更明显,表明研究区域内干热风威胁总体在减轻。但在气候变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,部分年份仍存在发生较重干热风的可能,2001年和2014年小麦灌浆期间,黄淮海地区均出现了持续时间较长、重度干热风面积较广的干热风天气,成为进入21世纪以来两个典型的干热风年,因此对干热风的防御仍要给予高度重视。
Dry-hot wind is one of the major meteorological hazards in Huang-Huai-Hai region, which commonly occurs at the filling stage of winter wheat and can severely influence the wheat growth and yield. Based on comprehensive dry-hot wind intensity index(CID), the spatial-temporal characteristics of dry-hot wind in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1961 to 2015 was analyzed, by using daily meteorological data(daily maximum temperature, relative humidity at 14:00, wind speed at 14:00, and daily precipitation) and winter wheat growth data of 65 stations. Regional dry-hot wind year type grades were calculated and the results showed that regional dry-hot wind occurred more than half of the past 55 years in Huang-Huai-Hai region. There were 21 and 10 years that regional dry-hot wind intensity was classified as light and severe grades, separately. Among of which, intensity index values dominated the first 3 places in 1961, 1965 and 2001. Ten year opportunities of dry-hot wind year type grades was more than 5 in central-south Hebei province, southern Beijing, north Shandong province and north Henan province. The intensity of dry-hot wind showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2015 in Huang-Huai-Hai region, especially in the prevalent occurred and harder-hit area the decreasing trend was more obviously. It should be noted that extreme climate events occur frequently under the background of climate warming, and extreme dry-hot wind events may occur in some regions under certain conditions. For example, severe dry-hot wind occurred in 2001 and 2014 during winter wheat ear filling stage and caused great damage in Huang-Huai-Hai region. It should be taken into account for the prevention of dry-hot wind in wheat planting.
Dry-hot wind is one of the major meteorological hazards in Huang-Huai-Hai region, which commonly occurs at the filling stage of winter wheat and can severely influence the wheat growth and yield. Based on comprehensive dry-hot wind intensity index(CID), the spatial-temporal characteristics of dry-hot wind in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1961 to 2015 was analyzed, by using daily meteorological data(daily maximum temperature, relative humidity at 14:00, wind speed at 14:00, and daily precipitation) and winter wheat growth data of 65 stations. Regional dry-hot wind year type grades were calculated and the results showed that regional dry-hot wind occurred more than half of the past 55 years in Huang-Huai-Hai region. There were 21 and 10 years that regional dry-hot wind intensity was classified as light and severe grades, separately. Among of which, intensity index values dominated the first 3 places in 1961, 1965 and 2001. Ten year opportunities of dry-hot wind year type grades was more than 5 in central-south Hebei province, southern Beijing, north Shandong province and north Henan province. The intensity of dry-hot wind showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2015 in Huang-Huai-Hai region, especially in the prevalent occurred and harder-hit area the decreasing trend was more obviously. It should be noted that extreme climate events occur frequently under the background of climate warming, and extreme dry-hot wind events may occur in some regions under certain conditions. For example, severe dry-hot wind occurred in 2001 and 2014 during winter wheat ear filling stage and caused great damage in Huang-Huai-Hai region. It should be taken into account for the prevention of dry-hot wind in wheat planting.
引文
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