福建气象干旱风险监测预警和评估技术
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摘要
利用1961-2017年逐日气温、降水、风速气象资料,根据国家标准"气象干旱等级"中定义的MCI指数,结合干旱历史记载,采用多年平均值无量纲化处理、百分位数法确定致旱因子权系数和阈值,构建与国家干旱业务体系相一致的、适合福建的气象干旱监测预警和强度评估体系:确定全省范围内监测气象干旱可能带来灾害影响的临界阈值,用于发布干旱预警;继而根据符合预警的历史干旱过程,研制了福建全省和9地市不同区域气象干旱过程强度定量化评估指标,用于动态的过程强度评估、相似过程比较和历史排位分析等。经过2018年实际业务检验、2018年历史相似年份对比分析和历史重大干旱过程的验证,表明所确定的指标具有很好的业务应用价值。通过系统平台业务化建设,实现了对区域气象干旱风险实时动态监测预警、未来一周干旱预估和过程定量化评估,为干旱灾害防御和风险控制提供了科学的依据。
Drought,such as agricultural drought,ecological drought,hydrological drought and drought of economical origin,is the concrete manifestation of the transmission of meteorological drought to different stages. If there is no suitable conditions,even the occurrence of meteorological drought will not form drought disasters.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to carry out early monitoring,early warning and pre-evaluation of meteorological drought. By means of the daily temperature,precipitation and wind speed meteorological data from1961 to 2017,combined with MCI index defined in the national standard "Grads of meteorological drought"and historical records of drought,the meteorological drought monitoring and early warning and intensity assessment system suitable for Fujian Province which was consistent with the National Drought operational system wasestablished which was used to the weight coefficient and thresholds of drought-inducing factors were confirmed by multiyear mean values and dimensionless method. The critical threshold for monitoring the possibledisasters effects of meteorological drought in the whole province was determined for issuing drought early warning. Then,according to the historical drought process which accords with the early warning,the quantitative assessmentindexes of meteorological drought process intensity in different regions of the province and 9 cities were developed fordynamic process intensity assessment,similar process comparison and historical ranking analysis. After the actual business test,the comparative analysis of the historical similar years in 2018 and the verification of the historical drought process,it shown that the index confirmed by this paper had a good business application value. Through the operational construction of the system platform,the real-timedynamic monitoring and early warning,the prediction of drought in the next week and the quantitative assessment of regional meteorological drought risk were realized,which provided scientific basis for drought disaster prevention and risk control.
Drought,such as agricultural drought,ecological drought,hydrological drought and drought of economical origin,is the concrete manifestation of the transmission of meteorological drought to different stages. If there is no suitable conditions,even the occurrence of meteorological drought will not form drought disasters.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to carry out early monitoring,early warning and pre-evaluation of meteorological drought. By means of the daily temperature,precipitation and wind speed meteorological data from1961 to 2017,combined with MCI index defined in the national standard "Grads of meteorological drought"and historical records of drought,the meteorological drought monitoring and early warning and intensity assessment system suitable for Fujian Province which was consistent with the National Drought operational system wasestablished which was used to the weight coefficient and thresholds of drought-inducing factors were confirmed by multiyear mean values and dimensionless method. The critical threshold for monitoring the possibledisasters effects of meteorological drought in the whole province was determined for issuing drought early warning. Then,according to the historical drought process which accords with the early warning,the quantitative assessmentindexes of meteorological drought process intensity in different regions of the province and 9 cities were developed fordynamic process intensity assessment,similar process comparison and historical ranking analysis. After the actual business test,the comparative analysis of the historical similar years in 2018 and the verification of the historical drought process,it shown that the index confirmed by this paper had a good business application value. Through the operational construction of the system platform,the real-timedynamic monitoring and early warning,the prediction of drought in the next week and the quantitative assessment of regional meteorological drought risk were realized,which provided scientific basis for drought disaster prevention and risk control.
引文
[1]陈家金,林晶,陈惠,等.福建省干旱的时空分布及其对农业生产的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):265-269.
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[4]张调风,张勃,王小敏,等.基于综合气象干旱指数(CI)的干旱时空动态格局分析-以甘肃省黄土高原区为例[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):12-20.
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[7]高西宁,徐庆喆,丛俊霞,等.基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省近54年干旱时空规律分析[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(11):1851-1857.
[8]杨帆,陈波,张超,等.新气象干旱综合监测指数(MCI)在黔东南本地化应用[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(3):56-61.
[9]廖要明,张存杰.基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,2017,43(11):1402-1409.
[10]王素萍,王劲松,张强,等.几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1616-1624.
[11]冯金社,吴建安.我国旱灾形势和减轻旱灾风险的主要对策[J].灾害学,2008,23(2):34-36.
[12]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.
[13]秦鹏程,刘敏.气象干旱诊断评估方法及其在长江中下游地区的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(11):1969-1976.
[14]刘晓云,王劲松,李耀辉,等.基于Copula函数的中国南方干旱风险特征研究[J].气象学报,2015,73(6):1080-1091.
[15]屈吉鸿,李岩,高志鹏,等.基于Copula函数的河南省干旱特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(6):1-5.
[16]于忱,陈隽,王红瑞,等.多变量Copula函数在干旱风险分析中的应用进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):14-21.
[17]颜敏,方国华,闻昕,等.基于可变模糊理论的气象干旱风险评价模型[J].水资源与水工程学,2018,29(1):236-241.
[18]王学峰.区域动态气象干旱强度指数及其应用[J].气象科技,2012,40(4):601-605.
[19]段旭,陶云,郑建萌,等.气象干旱时空表达方式探讨[J].高原气象,2012,31(5):1332-1338.
[20]杨月文,黄文,邹燕.基于连旱日数的气象干旱评价方法[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(3):17-21.
[21]杨丽慧,高建芸,苏汝波,等.改进的综合气象干旱指数在福建省的适用性分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):603-608.
[22]张存杰,刘海波,宋艳玲,等. GB/T 20481-2017中华人民共和国国家标准———气象干旱等级[M].北京:中国气象出版社,2017.
[23]宋德众,蔡诗树.中国气象灾害大典福建卷[M].北京:中国气象出版社,2007.
[24]王莺,王静,姚玉璧,等.基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(12):1897-1904.
[25]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[26]姚玉璧,王莺,王劲松.气候变暖背景下中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及对策[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(3):432-439.
[2]田贵良,林志宇.气象灾害对粮食生产的影响研究-以福建省为例[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):148-152.
[3]姚玉碧,张存杰,邓振镛,等.气象农业干旱指标综述[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(1):185-189.
[4]张调风,张勃,王小敏,等.基于综合气象干旱指数(CI)的干旱时空动态格局分析-以甘肃省黄土高原区为例[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):12-20.
[5]王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.
[6]王春林,陈慧华,唐立生,等.基于前期降水指数的气象干旱指标及其应用[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(3):157-163.
[7]高西宁,徐庆喆,丛俊霞,等.基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省近54年干旱时空规律分析[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(11):1851-1857.
[8]杨帆,陈波,张超,等.新气象干旱综合监测指数(MCI)在黔东南本地化应用[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(3):56-61.
[9]廖要明,张存杰.基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,2017,43(11):1402-1409.
[10]王素萍,王劲松,张强,等.几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1616-1624.
[11]冯金社,吴建安.我国旱灾形势和减轻旱灾风险的主要对策[J].灾害学,2008,23(2):34-36.
[12]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.
[13]秦鹏程,刘敏.气象干旱诊断评估方法及其在长江中下游地区的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(11):1969-1976.
[14]刘晓云,王劲松,李耀辉,等.基于Copula函数的中国南方干旱风险特征研究[J].气象学报,2015,73(6):1080-1091.
[15]屈吉鸿,李岩,高志鹏,等.基于Copula函数的河南省干旱特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(6):1-5.
[16]于忱,陈隽,王红瑞,等.多变量Copula函数在干旱风险分析中的应用进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):14-21.
[17]颜敏,方国华,闻昕,等.基于可变模糊理论的气象干旱风险评价模型[J].水资源与水工程学,2018,29(1):236-241.
[18]王学峰.区域动态气象干旱强度指数及其应用[J].气象科技,2012,40(4):601-605.
[19]段旭,陶云,郑建萌,等.气象干旱时空表达方式探讨[J].高原气象,2012,31(5):1332-1338.
[20]杨月文,黄文,邹燕.基于连旱日数的气象干旱评价方法[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(3):17-21.
[21]杨丽慧,高建芸,苏汝波,等.改进的综合气象干旱指数在福建省的适用性分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):603-608.
[22]张存杰,刘海波,宋艳玲,等. GB/T 20481-2017中华人民共和国国家标准———气象干旱等级[M].北京:中国气象出版社,2017.
[23]宋德众,蔡诗树.中国气象灾害大典福建卷[M].北京:中国气象出版社,2007.
[24]王莺,王静,姚玉璧,等.基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(12):1897-1904.
[25]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[26]姚玉璧,王莺,王劲松.气候变暖背景下中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及对策[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(3):432-439.