京津冀区域环境风险特征与演变态势研判
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摘要
京津冀地区人口密度大,开发强度高,资源环境承载负荷整体长期处于高水平状态,导致区域环境风险持续累积,严重制约区域可持续发展。基于京津冀协同发展的角度,综合考虑大气、水、土壤等各类环境要素,通过文献计量与基础数据分析,梳理归纳出区域性环境风险具有复合性、累积性、周期长等基本特征。在此基础上进行情景设置,分析不同情景下环境风险的演变态势。结果表明,京津冀地区目前处于环境风险"分散控制阶段",存在较大风险隐患,但在开展区域联动污染防治行动计划、有效落实风险管理对策的情况下,可全面降低风险隐患水平,增强人居安全保障能力。
Due to the high population density and development intensity,the resource and environment carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been at a high level for a long time,resulting in the continuous accumulation of regional environmental risks and severely constraining the regional sustainable development. Based on the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and considering various environmental factors such as air,water,and soil,this study summarized the basic characteristics of regional environmental risks like compounding,accumulation,and long risk cycle,by methods of bibliometrics and basic data analysis. Then the evolution of environmental risks under different scenarios was analyzed. The results show that the environmental risks in BeijingTianjin-Hebei region is currently in a "decentralized control phase"and hidden risks are high. However,as long as the regional pollution prevention action plan is effectively implemented,the hidden risk level can be significantly reduced,and the human settlement security can be enhanced.
Due to the high population density and development intensity,the resource and environment carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been at a high level for a long time,resulting in the continuous accumulation of regional environmental risks and severely constraining the regional sustainable development. Based on the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and considering various environmental factors such as air,water,and soil,this study summarized the basic characteristics of regional environmental risks like compounding,accumulation,and long risk cycle,by methods of bibliometrics and basic data analysis. Then the evolution of environmental risks under different scenarios was analyzed. The results show that the environmental risks in BeijingTianjin-Hebei region is currently in a "decentralized control phase"and hidden risks are high. However,as long as the regional pollution prevention action plan is effectively implemented,the hidden risk level can be significantly reduced,and the human settlement security can be enhanced.
引文
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[3]冷苏娅,蒋世杰,潘杰,等.京津冀协同发展背景下的区域综合环境风险评估研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(1):60-69.
[4]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2. 5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.
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[9]何品晶,张春燕,杨娜,等.我国村镇生活垃圾处理现状与技术路线探讨[J].农业环境科学学报,2010,29(11):2049-2054.
[10]张英仙,刘钢,曹磊,等.浅析小城镇生活垃圾污染防治中存在的主要问题及对策[J].环境科学与管理,2011,36(4):11-14.