基础设施、空间溢出对中国与周边国家间贸易的影响
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摘要
本文揭示了基础设施互联互通在中国的对外贸易中所发挥的独特作用。在理论建模与实证研究当中,本文将基础设施跟要素禀赋结构结合起来考察中国与周边国家的进出口贸易,并关注了以下两个方面的差异:要素禀赋结构的地区性差异;中国在进口与出口方面的差异。以中国—东盟及上合组织区域为对象,采用2000—2015年的面板数据,本文的实证研究得到以下主要结论:(1)中国的基础设施增长提高了本国的进口依存度,对邻国亦然,这说明基础设施的本地效应为正。(2)邻国基础设施对中国具有空间溢出,其增长提高了中国的进口依存度;中国的基础设施对邻国同样具有空间溢出,且提高了邻国的进口依存度。这说明基础设施互联互通有助于中国与邻国的贸易融合。此外,本文未发现"负的基础设施空间溢出效应"。(3)基础设施的本地效应与空间溢出效应之间存在替代关系。
This paper illustrates the unique role played by the connection of infrastructures among China and its neighboring countries to China's foreign trade. Combining infrastructure with the structure of factor endowments in its theoretical model and empirical study,this paper focuses on two kinds of differences,one is the regional difference in the structure of factor endowments among China and its neighbors,and the other is the difference between China's exports and its imports. The conclusions based on empirical study of the cross-nation panel data of China-ASEAN and the region of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization dated 2000-2015 are: First,the increase of China's infrastructure promotes the import dependence of its own,which applies to the neighboring countries. It means that the local effect of infrastructure is positive. Second,spatial spillovers of infrastructures from the neighboring countries to China promote China's import dependence,and vice versa,which means that the connection of infrastructures promotes China's foreign trade.And,the negative spatial spillover effect of infrastructure is not found in this paper. Third,the local effect and the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure are substitutes with each other.
This paper illustrates the unique role played by the connection of infrastructures among China and its neighboring countries to China's foreign trade. Combining infrastructure with the structure of factor endowments in its theoretical model and empirical study,this paper focuses on two kinds of differences,one is the regional difference in the structure of factor endowments among China and its neighbors,and the other is the difference between China's exports and its imports. The conclusions based on empirical study of the cross-nation panel data of China-ASEAN and the region of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization dated 2000-2015 are: First,the increase of China's infrastructure promotes the import dependence of its own,which applies to the neighboring countries. It means that the local effect of infrastructure is positive. Second,spatial spillovers of infrastructures from the neighboring countries to China promote China's import dependence,and vice versa,which means that the connection of infrastructures promotes China's foreign trade.And,the negative spatial spillover effect of infrastructure is not found in this paper. Third,the local effect and the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure are substitutes with each other.
引文
[1]邓涛涛,王丹丹,吴丹.交通基础设施、空间溢出与制造业地理集聚[J].区域经济评论,2017(2):33-40.
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[3]何敏,郭宏宇,竺彩华.基础设施互联互通对中国东盟贸易的影响———基于引力模型和边界效应模型的研究[J].国际经济合作,2015(9):56-63.
[4]梁双陆,张梅.基础设施互联互通对我国与周边国家贸易边界效应的影响[J].亚太经济,2016(1):101-106.
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[6]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与中国区域经济一体化[J].经济研究,2011(3):72-82.
[7]沈晨.基础设施建设对双边贸易的影响———以中国、东盟为例[J].经济研究导刊,2016(20):166-167.
[8]张光南,洪国志,陈广汉.基础设施、空间溢出与制造业成本效应[J].经济学(季刊),2014(1):285-304.
[9]张晓钦,韩传峰.中国—东盟自由贸易区基础设施、经济制度与贸易流量的实证分析[J].系统工程,2016(1):48-53.
[10]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗———兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77.
[11]AGENOR P,B MORENO-DODSON. Public Infrastructure and Growth:New Channels and Policy Implications[R]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064,2006.
[12]DAVID HUMMELS. Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization[J]. Journalof Economic Perspectives,2007(3):131-154.
[13]FUJITA M,KRUGMAN P,A J VENABLES. The spatial economy:Cities,Regions,and International Trade[M].MIT Press,Cambridge,1999.
[14]PETER EGGER. On the Impact of Transportation Costs on Trade in a Multilateral World[J]. Southern EconomicJournal,2005(3):592-606.
[2]范欣,宋冬林,赵新宇.基础设施建设打破了国内市场分割吗?[J].经济研究,2017(2):20-34.
[3]何敏,郭宏宇,竺彩华.基础设施互联互通对中国东盟贸易的影响———基于引力模型和边界效应模型的研究[J].国际经济合作,2015(9):56-63.
[4]梁双陆,张梅.基础设施互联互通对我国与周边国家贸易边界效应的影响[J].亚太经济,2016(1):101-106.
[5]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.基础设施的外部性在中国的检验:1988-2007[J].经济研究,2010(3):4-15.
[6]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.交通基础设施与中国区域经济一体化[J].经济研究,2011(3):72-82.
[7]沈晨.基础设施建设对双边贸易的影响———以中国、东盟为例[J].经济研究导刊,2016(20):166-167.
[8]张光南,洪国志,陈广汉.基础设施、空间溢出与制造业成本效应[J].经济学(季刊),2014(1):285-304.
[9]张晓钦,韩传峰.中国—东盟自由贸易区基础设施、经济制度与贸易流量的实证分析[J].系统工程,2016(1):48-53.
[10]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗———兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77.
[11]AGENOR P,B MORENO-DODSON. Public Infrastructure and Growth:New Channels and Policy Implications[R]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064,2006.
[12]DAVID HUMMELS. Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization[J]. Journalof Economic Perspectives,2007(3):131-154.
[13]FUJITA M,KRUGMAN P,A J VENABLES. The spatial economy:Cities,Regions,and International Trade[M].MIT Press,Cambridge,1999.
[14]PETER EGGER. On the Impact of Transportation Costs on Trade in a Multilateral World[J]. Southern EconomicJournal,2005(3):592-606.