昭通市地质灾害特征及气象风险预警模型研究
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摘要
云南省昭通市是长江上游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。通过研究利用Z指数、主成分分析和地质灾害前期有效降水量分析等方法,对历史地质灾害样本、同期区域站和国家站逐12 h、逐日降水资料等进行了分析研究。结果表明:昭通市境内地质灾害隐患点众多,以滑坡为主,大中型地质灾害也时有发生,其中95%以上的地质灾害发生在雨季,峰值在8月,与昭通市干湿季节相对应;其降水型地质灾害与灾害临近12 h降水量、当天降水强度、前3 d和前12 d累积降水量及降水强度等降水因子密切相关。因此,综合考虑短时、短期和中长期的累积降水效应,并引入国土部门的地质灾害区划成果建立了昭通市降水型地质灾害气象风险预警模型,选取2018年的地质灾害实例对模型进行检验,发现此模型对昭通雨季地质灾害有较好的预警指示作用。
Zhaotong City of Yunnan Province is one of the regions most seriously affected by geological disasters in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In this study, Z index, principal component analysis and effective precipitation analysis during the early stage of geological hazards were used to analyze the historical geological hazards, 12-hour and daily precipitation data of the regional and national stations in the duration of these hazard events. The results show that there are many potential geological hazards in Zhaotong, mainly landslides; and large and medium-sized geological disasters also occur. More than 95% of the geological disasters occur in the rainy season, with a summit in August, which corresponds to the change of the dry and wet seasons in Zhaotong. The precipitation-type geological hazards are closely related to the precipitation factors, such as the precipitation till 12-hours before the disaster's approaching, the precipitation intensity on that day of the disaster,cumulative precipitation and precipitation intensity of the 3-days and 12-days before the coming of the geological disaster. Therefore, a meteorological risk early-warning model for precipitation-type geological hazards is established, based on the short-term, medium and long-term cumulative precipitation effect, and the geological disaster zoning results of the the Ministry of Land and Resources. Then, the geological hazards in Zhaotong in 2018 were selected to test the model, and it was found out that this model has a good early warning indication for the geological disasters in the rainy season in Zhaotong.
Zhaotong City of Yunnan Province is one of the regions most seriously affected by geological disasters in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In this study, Z index, principal component analysis and effective precipitation analysis during the early stage of geological hazards were used to analyze the historical geological hazards, 12-hour and daily precipitation data of the regional and national stations in the duration of these hazard events. The results show that there are many potential geological hazards in Zhaotong, mainly landslides; and large and medium-sized geological disasters also occur. More than 95% of the geological disasters occur in the rainy season, with a summit in August, which corresponds to the change of the dry and wet seasons in Zhaotong. The precipitation-type geological hazards are closely related to the precipitation factors, such as the precipitation till 12-hours before the disaster's approaching, the precipitation intensity on that day of the disaster,cumulative precipitation and precipitation intensity of the 3-days and 12-days before the coming of the geological disaster. Therefore, a meteorological risk early-warning model for precipitation-type geological hazards is established, based on the short-term, medium and long-term cumulative precipitation effect, and the geological disaster zoning results of the the Ministry of Land and Resources. Then, the geological hazards in Zhaotong in 2018 were selected to test the model, and it was found out that this model has a good early warning indication for the geological disasters in the rainy season in Zhaotong.
引文
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[13]徐泽明,梅雪峰,王礼荣,等.滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性:以云南头寨沟为例[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2017,47(1):154-162.Xu Z M,Mei X F,Wang L R,et al.Precipitation temporal and variability of landslide early warning research:a case study on Touzhai gully in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Jilin University:Earth Science Edition,2017,47(1):154-162.
[14]陶媛,胡凯衡,田永中,等.云南鲁甸地震次生山地灾害分布规律与特征[J].地球科学与环境学报,2015,37(4):84-93.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-6561.2015.04.013.Tao Y,Hu K H,Tian Y Z,et al.Distribution and characteristics of secondary mountain hazards triggered by Ludian earthquake in Yunnan[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2015,37(4):84-93.
[15]王学锋,郑小波,黄玮,等.近47年云贵高原汛期强降水和极端降水变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(11):1 350-1 355.Wang X F,Zheng X B,Huang W,et al.Change characteristics of severe rainfall and extreme rainfall in floodseason over Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in recent 47years[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(11):1 350-1 355.
[16]罗梦森,熊世为,梁宇飞.区域极端降水事件阈值计算方法比较分析[J].气象科学,2013,33(5):549-554.Luo M S,Xiong S W,Liang Y F.Comparative study of calculated threshold values in regional extreme precipitation[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(5):549-554.
[17]鞠笑生,杨贤为,陈丽娟,等.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.Ju X S,Yang X W,Chen L J,et al.Research on determination of station indexes and division of regional flood/drought grades in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(1):26-33.
[18]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M]:北京:气象出版社,2004:121-140.Huang J Y.Meteorological statistical analysis and prediction method[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2004:121-140.
[19]Kohler M A,Linsley K.Predicting the runoff from storm rainfall[M].Washington,DC:Weather Bureau,US Dept of Commerce,1951:34.
[20]崔鹏,杨坤,陈杰.前期降雨对泥石流形成的贡献:以蒋家沟泥石流形成为例[J].中国水土保持科学,2003,1(1):11-15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3007.2003.01.005.Cui P,Yang K,Chen J.Relationship between occurrence of debris flow and antecedent precipitation:taking the Jiangjia Gully as an example[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,1(1):11-15.
[21]陈静静,姚蓉,文强,等.湖南省降雨型地质灾害致灾雨量阈值分析[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):42-47.Chen J J,Yao R,Wen Q,et al.Hazard rainfall threshold analysis of rainfall-induced geological disasters in Hunan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(2):42-47.
[2]唐川.昭通头寨沟特大型灾害性滑坡研究[J].云南地理环境研究,1991,3(2):64-71.Tang C.A study on large-scale catastrophic landslide at Touzai gully of Zhaotong[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,1991,3(2):64-71.
[3]沈军,方琼,吴贤云,等.湖南古丈山体滑坡影响因子分析[J].气象,2017,43(11):1 410-1 419.Shen J,Fang Q,Wu X Y,et al.Analysis of impact of landslide in Guzhang County of Hunan Provice[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(11):1 410-1 419.
[4]段旭,陶云,刘建宇,等.云南省不同地质地貌条件下滑坡泥石流与降水的关系[J].气象,2007,33(9):33-39.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0526.2007.09.005.Duan X,Tao Y,Liu J Y,et al.The relationship between the landslide and debris flows and the precipitation in Yunnan Province under conditions of different geology and geomorphology[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(9):33-39.
[5]陶云,唐川,段旭.云南滑坡泥石流灾害及其与降水特征的关系[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):180-186.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2009.01.028.Tao Y,Tang C,Duan X.Landslide and debris flow hazards in Yunnan and their relationship with precipitation characteristics[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(1):180-186.
[6]薛建军,徐晶,张芳华,等.区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究[J].气象,2005,31(10):24-27.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.10.006.Xue J J,Xu J,Zhang F H,et al.Study on forecast of regional meteorological geognosy disaster[J].Meteorological Monthly,2005,31(10):24-27.
[7]朱昳橙,李益敏,魏苏杭.怒江州滑坡地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2016,38(4):610-619.Zhu Y C,Li Y M,Wei S H.A prediction model study on landslide in Nujiang State[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2016,38(4):610-619.
[8]Keiko I,Sadohara S.Slope management planning for the mitigation of landside disaster in urban areas[J].Journal or Asian Architecture and Building Engineering,2006,5(1):183-190.DOI:10.3130/jaabe.5.183.
[9]闵颖,胡娟,李超,等.云南省滑坡泥石流灾害预报预警模型研究[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):216-220.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2013.04.038.Ming Y,Hu J,Li C,et al.Prediction model about landslide and debris flow in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2013,28(4):216-220.
[10]胡娟,闵颖,李华宏,等.云南省山洪地质灾害气象预报预警方法研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):62-66.Hu J,Ming Y,Li H H,et al.Meteorological early-warning research of mountain torrent and geologic hazard in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(1):62-66.
[11]李华宏,胡娟,许迎杰,等.云南省地质灾害气象风险精细化预警技术研究及应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2016:1-56.Li H H,Hu J,Xu Y J,et al.Research and application of meticulous forewarning technology for meteorological risk of geologic hazard in Yunnan Province[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2016:1-56.
[12]胡娟,闵颖,李华宏,等.云南省地质灾害精细化气象风险预警模型优化研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):110-115.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.019.Hu J,Ming Y,Li H H,et al.Improvement on the meteorological forewarning index of geologic hazard in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(4):110-115.
[13]徐泽明,梅雪峰,王礼荣,等.滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性:以云南头寨沟为例[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2017,47(1):154-162.Xu Z M,Mei X F,Wang L R,et al.Precipitation temporal and variability of landslide early warning research:a case study on Touzhai gully in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Jilin University:Earth Science Edition,2017,47(1):154-162.
[14]陶媛,胡凯衡,田永中,等.云南鲁甸地震次生山地灾害分布规律与特征[J].地球科学与环境学报,2015,37(4):84-93.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-6561.2015.04.013.Tao Y,Hu K H,Tian Y Z,et al.Distribution and characteristics of secondary mountain hazards triggered by Ludian earthquake in Yunnan[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2015,37(4):84-93.
[15]王学锋,郑小波,黄玮,等.近47年云贵高原汛期强降水和极端降水变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(11):1 350-1 355.Wang X F,Zheng X B,Huang W,et al.Change characteristics of severe rainfall and extreme rainfall in floodseason over Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in recent 47years[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(11):1 350-1 355.
[16]罗梦森,熊世为,梁宇飞.区域极端降水事件阈值计算方法比较分析[J].气象科学,2013,33(5):549-554.Luo M S,Xiong S W,Liang Y F.Comparative study of calculated threshold values in regional extreme precipitation[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(5):549-554.
[17]鞠笑生,杨贤为,陈丽娟,等.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.Ju X S,Yang X W,Chen L J,et al.Research on determination of station indexes and division of regional flood/drought grades in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(1):26-33.
[18]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M]:北京:气象出版社,2004:121-140.Huang J Y.Meteorological statistical analysis and prediction method[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2004:121-140.
[19]Kohler M A,Linsley K.Predicting the runoff from storm rainfall[M].Washington,DC:Weather Bureau,US Dept of Commerce,1951:34.
[20]崔鹏,杨坤,陈杰.前期降雨对泥石流形成的贡献:以蒋家沟泥石流形成为例[J].中国水土保持科学,2003,1(1):11-15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3007.2003.01.005.Cui P,Yang K,Chen J.Relationship between occurrence of debris flow and antecedent precipitation:taking the Jiangjia Gully as an example[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,1(1):11-15.
[21]陈静静,姚蓉,文强,等.湖南省降雨型地质灾害致灾雨量阈值分析[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):42-47.Chen J J,Yao R,Wen Q,et al.Hazard rainfall threshold analysis of rainfall-induced geological disasters in Hunan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(2):42-47.