华西秋雨气候特征分析
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摘要
为了分析华西秋雨在新标准下的气候特征,利用《华西秋雨监测业务规定(试行)》划分的373个国家气象观测站1976-2015年的逐日平均降水量,采用多种气候统计的方法,如Mann-Kendall非参数检验、Morlet小波、相关系数等。结果表明:华西秋雨北区、南区、整体区域强度指数总体呈非显著减少,但近年来表现为上升趋势。北区指数存在20 a、8 a左右周期,在1985年发生了由增高到降低的突变;南区指数存在17 a、5 a左右周期,在1989年发生了由高到低的突变;整体区域指数存在3.6 a、15 a左右周期,在1991年发生了由高到低的突变。影响北区华西秋雨指数大小主要为低层来自中亚的西风、印度洋赤道附近东风以及高层从太平洋吹来中国东海岸的东风、非洲东岸来的气流。影响南区华西秋雨指数大小主要为低层印度洋东南部的越赤道气流以及高层西太平洋经日本的东风。研究结果表明,华西秋雨南北区秋雨气候特征的不同的可能原因是水汽输送的源头和路径不同。
In order to analyze the climate characteristics of the autumn rainfall in West China under the new standard,we have used the daily average precipitation of 373 national meteorological stations in 1976-2015 years by "Business Regulations of Monitoring Autumn Rainfall in West China( Trial Implementation) "and a variety of climate statistical methods,such as Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,Morlet wavelet,correlation coefficient and etc.The results showed that autumn rainfall index of north,south and the overall region is not significantly reduced in general,but an upward trend in recent years.The change of autumn rainfall index of north have about 20 years and 8 years cycles and a mutation from high to low in 1985; The change of autumn rainfall index of south have about 17 years and 5 years cycles and a mutation from high to low in 1989; The change of autumn rainfall index of the overall region have about 3.6 years and 15 years cycles and a mutation from high to low in 1991.The influence of the autumn rainfall in West China index is mainly the low level westerly wind from Central Asia,the east wind near the equator of Indian ocean and the easterly wind flow from the east coast of China and the east coast of Africa.The size of the autumn rainfall in West China index in the south region is mainly the equatorial air flow in the southeast of the lower Indian ocean and the east wind of the high West Pacific through Japan.The results show that the different climatic characteristics of autumn rainfall in West China between North region and South region of West China are different from the source and path of water vapor transport.
In order to analyze the climate characteristics of the autumn rainfall in West China under the new standard,we have used the daily average precipitation of 373 national meteorological stations in 1976-2015 years by "Business Regulations of Monitoring Autumn Rainfall in West China( Trial Implementation) "and a variety of climate statistical methods,such as Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,Morlet wavelet,correlation coefficient and etc.The results showed that autumn rainfall index of north,south and the overall region is not significantly reduced in general,but an upward trend in recent years.The change of autumn rainfall index of north have about 20 years and 8 years cycles and a mutation from high to low in 1985; The change of autumn rainfall index of south have about 17 years and 5 years cycles and a mutation from high to low in 1989; The change of autumn rainfall index of the overall region have about 3.6 years and 15 years cycles and a mutation from high to low in 1991.The influence of the autumn rainfall in West China index is mainly the low level westerly wind from Central Asia,the east wind near the equator of Indian ocean and the easterly wind flow from the east coast of China and the east coast of Africa.The size of the autumn rainfall in West China index in the south region is mainly the equatorial air flow in the southeast of the lower Indian ocean and the east wind of the high West Pacific through Japan.The results show that the different climatic characteristics of autumn rainfall in West China between North region and South region of West China are different from the source and path of water vapor transport.
引文
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[2]高由禧.东亚的秋高气爽[J].气象学报,1958,29(2):83-92.
[3]高由禧,郭其蕴.我国的秋雨现象[J].气象学报,1958,29(4):264-273.
[4]徐桂玉,林春育.华西秋雨特征及成因探讨[J].气象科技,1994,14(2):149-154.
[5]白虎志,董文杰.华西秋雨的气候特征及成因分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):884-889.
[6]柳艳菊,孙冷,孙丞虎,等.2011年秋季华西秋雨异常及其成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(4):456-463.
[7]蒋竹将,马振峰,刘佳,等.一种改进的华西秋雨指数及其气候特征[J].大气科学,2014,38(1):32-44.
[8]王春学,马振峰,张顺谦,等.华西秋雨逐日监测指数的建立及其分析[J].气象,2014,40(8):957-964.
[9]华西秋雨监测业务规定(试行)[Z].2015.
[10]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:66-68,72-75,106-113.
[11]侯伟,马明明,胡德强,等.海口市近60a气候变化研究[J].热带作物学报,2016,37(10):2020-2027.
[12]王建兵,安华银,汪治桂,等.甘南高原秋季连阴雨的气候特征及主要环流形势[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):70-77.
[13]方建刚,白爱娟,陶建玲,等.2003年陕西秋季连阴雨降水特点及环流条件分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(4):509-517.
[14]赵珊珊,张强,陈峪,等.渭河、汉水流域秋季降水的变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(4):181-183.
[15]林纾,章克俭.西北区中东部2000年与2001年秋季连阴雨分析[J].气象,2003,29(2):34-38.
[16]王明田,蔡元刚,张玉芳,等.基于相对湿润度指数的四川省季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].西南农业学报,2014,27(4):1715-1722.