微博传播趋势预测的研究
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摘要
微博快速转发的特点使得在微博传播的过程中存在着显著的时间特性。本文对这种时间特性进行分析,挖掘传播规律,对传播规律建模,并对未来的微博传播情况进行预测。本文从微博整体的角度上考虑时间特性,通过分类和回归模型,对微博传播的趋势加以判定,并对传播数量加以预测。本文获取Twitter的505万条微博数据,利用TREC公布的相关性标注,验证了方法的有效性。在预测微博未来涨跌判定的实验中,准确率达到了80%,而预测相关微博数量的实验中,准确率在50%以上。
引文
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[22]周志华,王珏.机器学习及其应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007.