基于时滞效应的青岛市两阶段科技投入与产出互动关系
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摘要
科技投入是科技产出的重要源泉。近年来,我国科技发达的地区无一不保持着较高的科技投入强度,但科技投入对科技产出的推动作用不仅取决于科技投入的多寡,还取决于科技投入的时间与方向。为了更有效地分析青岛市科技投入对于科技产出的作用,有必要将科技投入对科技产出的影响进行动态定量分析。考虑科技投入到产出的时滞性,应用VAR(vector autoregression)模型,科学选取指标,采用平稳性检验、Granger因果检验、协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对青岛市2004—2015年间科技投入与产出的数据进行动态关系的实证研究。结果表明:在知识转化阶段,科技投入到科技产出的时滞期为2年;在成果转化阶段时滞期为0.5年;科技投入与科技产出相互影响以及R&D全时人员对科技产出的正向影响显著。
Investment in science and and technology is an important have source of output of science and technology.In recent areas with developed science technology of in our and country consistently promoting maintained scientific a and high intensity of investment output in science not and technology.on However,the role science technology in technological of depends only the order technology,but effect amount of investment in science analyze and also on the timing and direction investment in science and output technology.In Qingdao,it to more effectively the of science analyze and technology impact investment science on science and technology in is necessary to dynamically and quantitatively the of is and technology input on science and technology output.output,the test,Johansen 2015.indicators,and Considering the lag effect of input and VAR model impulse used to select the scientific the results are analyzed and test,Granger by stationary causality test response function stage and variance decomposition using time science technology transformation,the data in Qingdao from 2004 two to The results show that 0.in the of knowledge lag of science and years,and output technology input to output and is the time lag is 5 years in the transformation stage of transformation.Science and technology investment technology influence each other.R&D full time staff impacts science and technology output significantly.
Investment in science and and technology is an important have source of output of science and technology.In recent areas with developed science technology of in our and country consistently promoting maintained scientific a and high intensity of investment output in science not and technology.on However,the role science technology in technological of depends only the order technology,but effect amount of investment in science analyze and also on the timing and direction investment in science and output technology.In Qingdao,it to more effectively the of science analyze and technology impact investment science on science and technology in is necessary to dynamically and quantitatively the of is and technology input on science and technology output.output,the test,Johansen 2015.indicators,and Considering the lag effect of input and VAR model impulse used to select the scientific the results are analyzed and test,Granger by stationary causality test response function stage and variance decomposition using time science technology transformation,the data in Qingdao from 2004 two to The results show that 0.in the of knowledge lag of science and years,and output technology input to output and is the time lag is 5 years in the transformation stage of transformation.Science and technology investment technology influence each other.R&D full time staff impacts science and technology output significantly.
引文
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[12]付博君,杨新吉勒图.基于索洛模型的技术进步对内蒙古经济增长作用分析[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(8):65-69.FU Bojun,YANG Xinjiletu.The analysis of the effect of economic grow th factors in Inner M ongolia on the basis of Solow model[J].Science and Technology M anagement Research,2014,34(8):65-69.
[13]胡易辰,肖新平.基于知识溢出的科技投入对中国经济增长的时滞贡献研究[J].软科学,2013,27(10):55-58.HU Yichen,XIAO Xinping.Analysis of lag-time contribution of S&T input on Chinese economic grow th based on know ledge spillover[J].Soft Science,2013,27(10):55-58.
[14]黄钢,徐玖平,李颖.科技价值链及创新主体链接模式[J].中国软科学,2006,21(6):72-80.HUANG Gang,XU Jiuping,LI Ying.Science-technology value chains and the linking models among multiple innovation entities[J].China Soft Science,2006,21(6):72-80.
[15]王丹.考虑科技创新投入产出时滞影响的国家创新能力非线性测评[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(9):59-68.WANG Dan.Nonlinear assessment of national innovation capability considering time lags effects of innovation input-output[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(9):59-68.
[16]俞立平.不同科研经费投入与产出互动关系的实证研究——基于面板数据及面板VAR模型的估计[J].科研管理,2013,34(10):94-102.YU Liping.Study on interactive relationship of different sources of R&D input and S&T output based on panel data and panel VAR model[J].Science Research M anagement,2013,34(10):94-102.
[17]索玮岚,高军,陈锐.科研机构科技资源使用效益评估研究——基于时滞效应和关联效应视角[J].科学学研究,2015,33(2):234-241.SUO Weilan,GAO Jun,CHEN Rui.Study on utilization effectiveness assessment of S&T resource for scientific research institutes:based on the perspective of time-lag effect and interdependence effect[J].Studies in Science of Science,2015,33(2):234-241.
[18]李武威.国内研发投入、技术转移与创新绩效的协整分析[J].科技管理研究,2011,31(8):85-89.LI Wuw ei.Co-integration analysis on relationship among domestic R&D input,technology transfer and innovation performance[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2011,31(8):85-89.
(1)(3)http://www.stats-qd.gov.cn/statsqd/index/index.shtml
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[2]赵俊杰.合理使用科技资源提高科技投入产出效率[J].中国科技论坛,2005,21(6):9-12,21.ZHAO Junjie.Using science and technology resource reasonably to improve the productivity[J].China Science and Technology Forum,2005,21(6):9-12,21.
[3]ROMER P M.Increasing returns and long run growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986(94):1002-1037.
[4]HITT M A,HOSKISSON R E,JOHNSON R A,et al.The market for corporate control and firm innovation[J].Academy of M anagement Journal,1996,39(5):1084-1119.
[5]魏洁云,江可申,史普润.江苏省研发投入与创新产出的协整研究[J].科技进步与对策,2011,28(20):21-25.
[6]GRILICHES Z.Issues in assessing the contribute of R&D to productivity growth[J].Bell Journal of Economics,1979,10(1):92-116.
[7]白云飞,潘忠志.我国R&D投入对于科技创新的时滞效应研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(4):1-5.BAI Yunfei,PAN Zhongzhi.A study on the time lag effect of Chinas R&D input on science and technology innovation[J].Science and Technology M anagement Research,2015,35(4):1-5.
[8]SCHERER F M.Firm size,market structure,opportunity,and the output of patented inventions[J].American Economic Review,1965,55(5):1097-1125.
[9]杜娟.基于DEA模型的我国农业科技创新投入产出分析[J].科技进步与对策,2013,30(8):82-85.DU Juan.Analysis of the input-output efficiency of agriculture science and technology innovation in China based on data envelopment analysis[J].Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2013,30(8):82-85.
[10]陈永清.我国科技投入与科技产出关系的实证研究——基于灰色系统理论的视角[J].广西社会科学,2011,27(1):54-59.
[11]贺勇,杨倩霞,唐可欣.广州市科技进步对经济增长贡献份额的测算[J].科技管理研究,2013,33(16):44-47.HE Yong,YANG Qianxia,TANG Kexin.The estimation of contribution share of S&T progress on economic grow th of Guangzhou city[J].Science and Technology M anagement Research,2013,33(16):44-47.
[12]付博君,杨新吉勒图.基于索洛模型的技术进步对内蒙古经济增长作用分析[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(8):65-69.FU Bojun,YANG Xinjiletu.The analysis of the effect of economic grow th factors in Inner M ongolia on the basis of Solow model[J].Science and Technology M anagement Research,2014,34(8):65-69.
[13]胡易辰,肖新平.基于知识溢出的科技投入对中国经济增长的时滞贡献研究[J].软科学,2013,27(10):55-58.HU Yichen,XIAO Xinping.Analysis of lag-time contribution of S&T input on Chinese economic grow th based on know ledge spillover[J].Soft Science,2013,27(10):55-58.
[14]黄钢,徐玖平,李颖.科技价值链及创新主体链接模式[J].中国软科学,2006,21(6):72-80.HUANG Gang,XU Jiuping,LI Ying.Science-technology value chains and the linking models among multiple innovation entities[J].China Soft Science,2006,21(6):72-80.
[15]王丹.考虑科技创新投入产出时滞影响的国家创新能力非线性测评[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(9):59-68.WANG Dan.Nonlinear assessment of national innovation capability considering time lags effects of innovation input-output[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(9):59-68.
[16]俞立平.不同科研经费投入与产出互动关系的实证研究——基于面板数据及面板VAR模型的估计[J].科研管理,2013,34(10):94-102.YU Liping.Study on interactive relationship of different sources of R&D input and S&T output based on panel data and panel VAR model[J].Science Research M anagement,2013,34(10):94-102.
[17]索玮岚,高军,陈锐.科研机构科技资源使用效益评估研究——基于时滞效应和关联效应视角[J].科学学研究,2015,33(2):234-241.SUO Weilan,GAO Jun,CHEN Rui.Study on utilization effectiveness assessment of S&T resource for scientific research institutes:based on the perspective of time-lag effect and interdependence effect[J].Studies in Science of Science,2015,33(2):234-241.
[18]李武威.国内研发投入、技术转移与创新绩效的协整分析[J].科技管理研究,2011,31(8):85-89.LI Wuw ei.Co-integration analysis on relationship among domestic R&D input,technology transfer and innovation performance[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2011,31(8):85-89.
(1)(3)http://www.stats-qd.gov.cn/statsqd/index/index.shtml
(2)http://www.qdstc.gov.cn/index.html
(4)http://www.sipc.cc/bigdata/bd/publicSecondMenu?menuCode=574763741761675264#