财政科技投入与经济增长的实证分析
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摘要
采用国家统计局发布的2007—2017年统计数据为基础,以云南省为例,通过单位根检验、格兰杰因果分析,构建向量自回归模型,对未来财政科技投入与经济增长做出预测。结果表明:政府财政科技投入是经济增长的重要原因之一;云南省及全国十年后的科技投入水平差距将逐年加大。根据习近平总书记对云南省建设面向南亚东南亚辐射中心的定位以及全面建成小康社会的总体要求,针对云南财政科技资金不足的特点,提出中央财政以转移支付的形式支持云南科技投入的建议。
Based on the 2007—2017 statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,and taking Yunnan Province as an example,a vector autoregressive model was constructed through unit root test and Granger causal analysis to predict future financial investment in science and technology and economic growth. The results show that: The government financial investment in science and technology is one of the important reason for GDP growth; after 10 years of investment in science and technology,the investment gap of Yunnan Province and the country will be wider year by year. According to the positioning of the construction of the radiation center facing South Asia and Southeast Asia in Yunnan Province and the overall requirements for building a well-off society in an all-round way by General Secretary Xi Jinping,the paper puts forward the proposal for the central government to support the investment in science and technology in Yunnan in the form of transfer payment in view of the characteristics of insufficient financial technology funds in Yunnan.
Based on the 2007—2017 statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,and taking Yunnan Province as an example,a vector autoregressive model was constructed through unit root test and Granger causal analysis to predict future financial investment in science and technology and economic growth. The results show that: The government financial investment in science and technology is one of the important reason for GDP growth; after 10 years of investment in science and technology,the investment gap of Yunnan Province and the country will be wider year by year. According to the positioning of the construction of the radiation center facing South Asia and Southeast Asia in Yunnan Province and the overall requirements for building a well-off society in an all-round way by General Secretary Xi Jinping,the paper puts forward the proposal for the central government to support the investment in science and technology in Yunnan in the form of transfer payment in view of the characteristics of insufficient financial technology funds in Yunnan.
引文
[1]李国平,王春杨.我国省域创新产出的空间特征和时空演化——基于探索性空间数据分析的实证[J].地理研究,2012,31(1):95-106.
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[4]单红梅,李芸. 1991—2003年间中国科技投入经济效果的实证分析[J].系统工程,2006(9):88-92.
[5]胡恩华,刘洪,张龙.我国科技投入经济效果的实证研究[J].科研管理,2006(4):55-61.
[6]王章豹,郑荣稳.我国区域科技与经济非均衡发展的实证分析[J].自然辩证法研究. 2009(11):89-95.
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[9]铁卫,王天恒.财政科技支出与经济增长的实证分析—以陕西为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(27):43-47.
[10] LEVINE A,LIN C F,CHU C. Unit root test in panel data[J].Journal of Econometrics,2002,108(1):1-24.
[11]李霞,邵建春.基于VAR模型的我国双向FDI产业结构升级效应比较研究[J].科技与经济,2016,29(4):101-105.
[2] SOLOW R M. Technical:Change and the Aggregate Production[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1975(37):312-320.
[3]田卫民.中国科技投入对经济增长的贡献1953—2007[J].经济问题探索,2011(8):17-23
[4]单红梅,李芸. 1991—2003年间中国科技投入经济效果的实证分析[J].系统工程,2006(9):88-92.
[5]胡恩华,刘洪,张龙.我国科技投入经济效果的实证研究[J].科研管理,2006(4):55-61.
[6]王章豹,郑荣稳.我国区域科技与经济非均衡发展的实证分析[J].自然辩证法研究. 2009(11):89-95.
[7]车文军.我国财政科技支出支持自主创新的实证研究[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2010(9):141-142.
[8]王凯,庞震.中国财政科技投入与经济增长:1978—2008[J].科学管理研究,2010(1):103-106.
[9]铁卫,王天恒.财政科技支出与经济增长的实证分析—以陕西为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(27):43-47.
[10] LEVINE A,LIN C F,CHU C. Unit root test in panel data[J].Journal of Econometrics,2002,108(1):1-24.
[11]李霞,邵建春.基于VAR模型的我国双向FDI产业结构升级效应比较研究[J].科技与经济,2016,29(4):101-105.