科技投入、公共支持对城镇化的影响——来自长江经济带11省市空间杜宾模型的实证
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摘要
基于长江经济带1997-2016年数据,应用空间杜宾模型对科技投入、公共支持影响城镇化进行了实证分析。结果表明,长江经济带区域科技投入、公共支持与城镇化之间,大部分时间都存在显著的空间正相关性,科技投入、公共支持显著推动城镇化发展,但空间溢出效应不明显;科技投入与公共支持的交互作用对城镇化发展有轻微的抑制作用;人力资本、消费水平显著促进城镇化发展。最后,提出加速推进长江经济带协作机制建设、促进空间溢出效应发挥、强化科技投入和公共支持的正向影响、防止逆城镇化倾向发展、提升长江经济带民众受教育水平、促进城镇化水平稳步提升等建议。
Based on the data of 1997 to 2016 in Yangtze River Economic Zone,the spatial dubin model is used to do the empirical analysis on the effect of science and technology investment and public support on urbanization.The results show that there is significant spatial positive correlation among science and technology investment,public support and urbanization in Yangtze Economic Zone Area in most time,the science and technology investment and public support significantly promote the development of urbanization,but the spatial spillover effect is not obvious;the interaction between science and technology investment and public support has slight inhibition on the development of urbanization;the human capital and consumption level obviously promote the development of urbanization.Therefore,the construction of cooperation mechanism in Yangtze River Economic Zone should be quickly improved to promote the playing of spatial spillover effect;the positive influence of science and technology investment and public support should be strengthened to prevent the development of inverse urbanization tendency;the people's educational level in Yangtze River Economic Zone should be improved to promote the steady lifting of urbanization level.
Based on the data of 1997 to 2016 in Yangtze River Economic Zone,the spatial dubin model is used to do the empirical analysis on the effect of science and technology investment and public support on urbanization.The results show that there is significant spatial positive correlation among science and technology investment,public support and urbanization in Yangtze Economic Zone Area in most time,the science and technology investment and public support significantly promote the development of urbanization,but the spatial spillover effect is not obvious;the interaction between science and technology investment and public support has slight inhibition on the development of urbanization;the human capital and consumption level obviously promote the development of urbanization.Therefore,the construction of cooperation mechanism in Yangtze River Economic Zone should be quickly improved to promote the playing of spatial spillover effect;the positive influence of science and technology investment and public support should be strengthened to prevent the development of inverse urbanization tendency;the people's educational level in Yangtze River Economic Zone should be improved to promote the steady lifting of urbanization level.
引文
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[27]安蓓,陈炜伟.同饮一江水,共圆复兴梦---党的十八大以来长江经济带发展成就综述[N].光明日报,2017-10-16.
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[29]杨毅,党兴华,成泷.区域科技与金融有效结合模式及机制研究[J].科技进步与对策,2018(6):50-57.
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[31]张明斗,毛培榕.新型城镇化的内生机制建设及路径优化研究[J].当代经济管理,2018(6):69-73.
[32]陈劲.城市居民文化消费结构及其资本积累:重庆例征[J].改革,2015(7):110-119.
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[34]ELHORST J P.Spatial econometrics:from cross-sectional data to spatial panels[M].Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2014.
[35]LESAGE J,PACE K.Introduction to spatial econometrics[M].Londons CRC Press/Taylor&Francis Group,2009.
[36]徐春华,刘力.FDI、政府消费与CO2排放-基于36国贸易空间权重矩阵的空间杜宾模型分析[J].国际经贸探索,2016,1(32):64-78.
[37]张林.金融发展、科技创新与实体经济增长[J].金融经济学研究,2016(1):14-25.
[38]吴传清,黄磊.长江经济带工业绿色发展效率及其影响因素研究[J].江西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018(3):10-19.
[39]薛选登,张一方.新型城镇化进程中“逆城镇化”的新态势与路径探讨[J].经济纵横,2017(1):36-39.
[40]沈东.当代中国逆城镇化研究的争鸣及展望[J].湖南科技大学学报:社会科学版,2018(2):107-113.
[41]李培林.“逆城镇化”大潮来了吗[J].人民论坛,2017(1):60-61.
[42]余保刚.消费主义思潮的困境与超越[J].南京师范大学学报:社会科学版,2016(6):81-86.
[2]推动长江经济带发展领导小组办公室.在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下努力推动长江经济带发展[N].人民日报,2018-01-05.
[3]GROSSMAN JAY.The evolution of inhaler technology[J].Journal of Asthma,1994(1):55-64.
[4]BRANSTETTER L G,SAKAKIBARA M.When do research consortia work well and why?evidence from Japanese panel data[J].American Economic Review,2002,92(1)143-159.
[5]KEVIN HONGLIN ZHANG.What explains China's rising urbanization in the reform Era[J].Urban Studies,2002,39(12):2301-2315.
[6]GLAESER B E L,SCHEINKMAN J A,SHLEIFER A.On the mechanics of economic development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2010,22(1):3-42.
[7]LUCAS R E.On the mechanics of economic development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22(1):3-42.
[8]BLACK D,J V HENDERSON.Urban growth[N].NBERWorking Paper No.6008,1997.
[9]MOOMAW R L,ALI M S.Urbanization and economic development:a bias toward large cities[J].Journal of Urban E-conomics,1996(4):13-37.
[10]ROMER P M.Increasing returns and long-run growth[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-37.
[11]ENKEL E,GASSMANN O,CHESBROUGH H.Open R&D and open innovation:exploring the phenomenon[J].R&D Manage,2009(2):311-316.
[12]DAVID CLARK.Interdependent urbanization in an urban world:an historical overview[J].The Geographical Journal,1998,164(1):85-95.
[13]钱景童.习近平为长江经济带发展立了个规矩[EB/OL].央视网,2018-04-28.
[14]马嘉楠,周振华.地方政府财政科技补贴、企业创新投入与区域创新活力[J].上海经济研究,2018(2):53-60.
[15]陈庆江.政府科技投入能否提高企业技术创新效率[J].经济管理,2017(2):6-19.
[16]董兴林,孙珍珍.青岛市科技投入与产出的时滞效应研究[J].科技管理研究,2018(2):75-79.
[17]王德娟,贾建宇.财政科技投入与经济增长的分析研究[J].科学管理研究,2017(2):96-99.
[18]黄磊,程莉.技术创新、政府投入与经济增长[J].经济体制改革,2016(2):69-76.
[19]高阳,程启智.科技投入与经济增长关系分析[J].科技进步与对策,2014(21):47-51.
[20]陈实,王亮,陈平.实证分析不同来源科技投入对经济增长的贡献[J].科学学研究,2017(8):1143-1231.
[21]宛群超,邓峰.FDI、科技创新与中国新型城镇化[J].华东经济管理,2017(10):103-111.
[22]胡艳,詹翩翩.政府科技投入与技术创新关系研究[J].科技管理研究,2017(14):91-97.
[23]韩立达,牟雪淞.新型城镇化影响因素研究[J].经济问题探索[J],2018(1):55-62.
[24]王珍珍,穆怀中.高等教育人力资本与城镇化发展[J].华中科技大学学报:社会科学版,2018(1):76-85.
[25]赵楠,白福臣.地方政府投资对城镇化发展的影响[J].资源开发与市场,2018,34(2):261-267.
[26]史静静,谈镇.协调发展视角下共享经济与新型城镇化战略的多维互动[J].城市发展研究,2018(2):118-124.
[27]安蓓,陈炜伟.同饮一江水,共圆复兴梦---党的十八大以来长江经济带发展成就综述[N].光明日报,2017-10-16.
[28]尹向飞,段文斌.中国科技创新对经济增长的支撑作用研究[J].上海经济研究,2017(12):24-36.
[29]杨毅,党兴华,成泷.区域科技与金融有效结合模式及机制研究[J].科技进步与对策,2018(6):50-57.
[30]张宁.公共财政支出对新型城镇化与居民收入差距的影响[J].金融与经济,2016(2):33-37.
[31]张明斗,毛培榕.新型城镇化的内生机制建设及路径优化研究[J].当代经济管理,2018(6):69-73.
[32]陈劲.城市居民文化消费结构及其资本积累:重庆例征[J].改革,2015(7):110-119.
[33]刘子兰,刘辉,袁礼.人力资本与家庭消费---基于CFPS数据的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2018(4):17-35.
[34]ELHORST J P.Spatial econometrics:from cross-sectional data to spatial panels[M].Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2014.
[35]LESAGE J,PACE K.Introduction to spatial econometrics[M].Londons CRC Press/Taylor&Francis Group,2009.
[36]徐春华,刘力.FDI、政府消费与CO2排放-基于36国贸易空间权重矩阵的空间杜宾模型分析[J].国际经贸探索,2016,1(32):64-78.
[37]张林.金融发展、科技创新与实体经济增长[J].金融经济学研究,2016(1):14-25.
[38]吴传清,黄磊.长江经济带工业绿色发展效率及其影响因素研究[J].江西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018(3):10-19.
[39]薛选登,张一方.新型城镇化进程中“逆城镇化”的新态势与路径探讨[J].经济纵横,2017(1):36-39.
[40]沈东.当代中国逆城镇化研究的争鸣及展望[J].湖南科技大学学报:社会科学版,2018(2):107-113.
[41]李培林.“逆城镇化”大潮来了吗[J].人民论坛,2017(1):60-61.
[42]余保刚.消费主义思潮的困境与超越[J].南京师范大学学报:社会科学版,2016(6):81-86.