油气藏勘探目标评价与投资组合优选
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摘要
针对油气藏勘探目标评价问题,构建了油气藏勘探目标评价模型,完善了油气藏勘探目标评价指标体系,探讨了多目标情况下投资组合途径及最佳组合的确定方式。研究结果表明:所构建的油气藏勘探目标评价模型融合了地质风险与储量价值两方面内容,其中,地质风险又可细化为4个主因素,储量价值则是在蒙特卡洛模拟法计算出可采储量基础上,用现金流法计算储量经济效益;利用投资组合原理,计算并制作"收益-风险"分布图和有效前沿曲线,在战略和投资总量约束条件下确定最佳投资组合。通过对某石油公司计划钻探目标进行评价,优选了油气藏评价勘探部署方案。该模型符合国际油气经济技术发展和石油公司效益勘探趋势,研究结果对油气藏勘探评价及投资组合优选具有一定的指导意义。
Aiming at the problem of exploration target evaluation of oil and gas reservoirs,an exploration target evaluation model of oil and gas reservoir was built,the exploration target evaluation index system of oil and gas reservoir was perfected,and the way of investment portfolio and the determination mode of optimal investment portfolio in the case of multiple targets were discussed. The study results show that the exploration target evaluation model of oil and gas reservoir combines geological risk and reserve value,in which,geological risk can be divided into 4 main factors,and the reserve value is to use the cash flow method to calculate the economic benefit of reserves based on recoverable reserves figured out by Monte Carlo simulation method; the investment portfolio theory is used to calculate and draw the " profit-risk" distribution map and effective frontier curve,and the optimal investment portfolio is determined under the constraints of strategy and aggregate investment. Based on the evaluation of a drilling target planned by an oil company,the evaluation and exploration deployment program of the reservoir was optimized. The model is in line with the economic and technological development trend of international oil and gas and the benefit exploration trend of oil companies,and the study results are very instructive in oil and gas reservoir exploration evaluation and investment portfolio optimization.
Aiming at the problem of exploration target evaluation of oil and gas reservoirs,an exploration target evaluation model of oil and gas reservoir was built,the exploration target evaluation index system of oil and gas reservoir was perfected,and the way of investment portfolio and the determination mode of optimal investment portfolio in the case of multiple targets were discussed. The study results show that the exploration target evaluation model of oil and gas reservoir combines geological risk and reserve value,in which,geological risk can be divided into 4 main factors,and the reserve value is to use the cash flow method to calculate the economic benefit of reserves based on recoverable reserves figured out by Monte Carlo simulation method; the investment portfolio theory is used to calculate and draw the " profit-risk" distribution map and effective frontier curve,and the optimal investment portfolio is determined under the constraints of strategy and aggregate investment. Based on the evaluation of a drilling target planned by an oil company,the evaluation and exploration deployment program of the reservoir was optimized. The model is in line with the economic and technological development trend of international oil and gas and the benefit exploration trend of oil companies,and the study results are very instructive in oil and gas reservoir exploration evaluation and investment portfolio optimization.
引文
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[2]庞雄奇.油气田勘探[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2006:97-100.
[3]OTIS R M,SCHNEIDERNANN N A. Process for evaluating exploration prospects[J]. AAPG Bulletin,1997,81(7):1087-1109.
[4]郭秋麟,米石云.油气勘探目标评价与决策分析[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:24-26.
[5]徐旭辉,蔡利学,刘超英,等,油气勘探目标评价与优选系统[J].石油与天然气地质,2015,36(3):517-524.
[6]宋建国,张光亚.勘探目标评价方法[J].世界石油工业,1998,5(8):10-14.
[7]闫相宾,李娜,蔡利学.油气预探目标评价优选决策方法[J].石油与天然气地质,2014,35(4):570-579.
[8]闫相宾,李军,杨双.三级圈闭含油气概率和资源量表征方法探讨[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(4):495-499.
[9]秦伟军,闵斌.东部陆相断陷盆地近年失利主要原因分析[J].中国石油勘探,2008,13(6):12-15.
[10]秦伟军.泌阳凹陷大型构造-岩性复合油藏的成藏要素[J].石油与天然气地质,2004,25(4):432-436.
[11]闫相宾,刘超英,蔡利学.含油气区带评价方法探讨[J].石油与天然气地质,2010,31(6):857-864.
[12]金之钧,张金川.油气资源评价技术[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1999:25-26.
[13]方小东,郭元岭,胡兴中.油气勘探状态评价新方法[J].河南石油,2005,19(6):6-8.
[14]中国石油天然气总公司计划局及中国石油天然气总公司规划设计院.石油工业建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M]. 2版.北京:石油工业出版社,1994:16-18.
[15]周总瑛,唐跃刚.油气资源评价中风险分析方法探讨[J].长江大学学报(社会科学版),2004,27(1):108-111.