基于集对分析-区间三角模糊数的冲击地压耦合评价模型及应用
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摘要
冲击地压的评价指标具有灰度、模糊性、未知性等不确定性特点,很难确定合理的指标权重,致使评价结果不符合工程实际,无法满足冲击预测与预报的要求。据此,提出一种基于集对分析-区间三角模糊数的冲击地压耦合评价模型——SPA-ITFN耦合模型。集对分析(SPA)中的多元联系数可处理冲击地压评价中的确定性、不确定性以及确定性与不确定性相互作用的问题,可以获得更加合理的指标权重;区间三角模糊数(ITFN)可以处理多因子决策问题中的层次不确定性,使得评价等级之间的界定更加精准,解决了传统评价方法中等级间界定模糊的问题。运用该模型评价兴山煤矿6个工作面的冲击情况,安全性由高到低为:1311工作面>1133工作面>1132工作面>1203工作面>1201工作面>1307工作面,评价结果符合工程实际。评价结果与模糊综合评价、层次分析法、基于云模型和D-S理论的评价对比分析表明:SPA-ITFN耦合模型评价准确,灵敏度更高,能反映冲击危险的强弱,具有较高应用和参考价值。
Due to the uncertainty characteristics of rock burst evaluation index such as gray,fuzziness and unknown,it is difficult to determine the reasonable index weight.As a result,the evaluation results do not accord with the engineering practice and therefore can not meet the requirements of rock burst prediction.To solve this problem,a rock burst coupling evaluation model named as SPA-ITFN coupling model based on set pair analysis and interval triangular fuzzy number was proposed in this paper.The multivariate relation number in SPA could deal with the problems of certainty,uncertainty and the interaction between certainty and uncertainty in the evaluation of rock burst toobtain more reasonable index weight.Interval triangular fuzzy number could deal with the hierarchical uncertainty of multi-factor decision making,which could make the definition of evaluation grades more accurate,to solve the fuzzy problem of grade definition in traditional evaluation methods.This model was used to evaluate the impact of six working faces in Xingshan coal mine,the safety from high to low being:1311 working face>1133 working face>1132 working face> 1203 working face> 1201 working face> 1307 working face.The evaluation results accorded with the engineering practice.Compared with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,analytic hierarchy process(AHP),evaluation method based on cloud model and D-S theory,the evaluation results show that the new coupling model,with higher accuracy and sensitivity,can reflect the strength of impact risk and thus has higher application and reference value.
Due to the uncertainty characteristics of rock burst evaluation index such as gray,fuzziness and unknown,it is difficult to determine the reasonable index weight.As a result,the evaluation results do not accord with the engineering practice and therefore can not meet the requirements of rock burst prediction.To solve this problem,a rock burst coupling evaluation model named as SPA-ITFN coupling model based on set pair analysis and interval triangular fuzzy number was proposed in this paper.The multivariate relation number in SPA could deal with the problems of certainty,uncertainty and the interaction between certainty and uncertainty in the evaluation of rock burst toobtain more reasonable index weight.Interval triangular fuzzy number could deal with the hierarchical uncertainty of multi-factor decision making,which could make the definition of evaluation grades more accurate,to solve the fuzzy problem of grade definition in traditional evaluation methods.This model was used to evaluate the impact of six working faces in Xingshan coal mine,the safety from high to low being:1311 working face>1133 working face>1132 working face> 1203 working face> 1201 working face> 1307 working face.The evaluation results accorded with the engineering practice.Compared with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,analytic hierarchy process(AHP),evaluation method based on cloud model and D-S theory,the evaluation results show that the new coupling model,with higher accuracy and sensitivity,can reflect the strength of impact risk and thus has higher application and reference value.
引文
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[14]张开智,夏均民.冲击危险性综合评价的变权识别模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,32(20):3480-3483.ZHANG Kaizhi,XIA Junmin.Weight-variable identification model of comprehensive evaluation on burst liability of coal[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,32(20):3480-3483.
[15]赵传奇,张巨伟,孙蕴,等.基于三角模糊数的加氢裂化装置火灾爆炸事故树的分析与应用[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(6):119-122.ZHAO Chuanqi,ZHANG Juwei,SUN Yun,et al.Analysis and application of fire and explosion fault tree in hydrocracking unit based on triangular fuzzy number[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2017,24(6):119-122.
[16]WANG D,BORTHWICK A G,HE H,et al.A hybrid wavelet de-noising and rank-set pair analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series[J].Environmental Research,2018,160(34):269-281.
[17]GARG H,KUMAR K.Distance measures for connection number sets based on set pair analysis and its applications to decision-making process[J].Applied Intelligence,2018,28(1):1-14.
[18]FIGUEROA-GARCIA J C,CHALCO-CANO Y,ROMAN-FLORES H.Yager index and ranking for interval type-2fuzzy numbers[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2018,26(5):2709-2718.
[2]陈光波.基于云模型和D-S理论的冲击地压危险性综合评价[J].矿业研究与开发,2017,37(6):26-30.CHEN Guangbo.Comprehensive evaluation of rock burst risk based on cloud model and D-S theory[J].Mining Research and Development,2017,37(6):26-30.
[3]VERDON J P,KENDALL J M,BUTCHER A,et al.Seismicity induced by longwall coal mining at the Thoresby Colliery,Nottinghamshire,U.K.[J].Geophysical Journal International,2018,212(2):942-954.
[4]黄冬梅.基于三类危险源分析的瓦斯爆炸事故灰色-层次评价[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,36(6):103-108.HUANG Dongmei.Grey-hierarchy evaluation of gas explosion accidents based on analysis of three kinds of hazards[J].Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science),2017,36(6):103-108.
[5]HOSSEINI N.Evaluation of the rockburst potential in longwall coal mining using passive seismic velocity tomography and image subtraction technique[J].Journal of Seismology,2017,21(1):1-10.
[6]MACIAG E,KUZNIAR K,TATARA T.Response spectra of the ground motion and building foundation vibrations excited by rockbursts in the LGC region[J].Earthquake Spectra,2016,32(3):23-31.
[7]程卫民,周刚,王刚,等.基于灰色-模糊-改进动量BP算法的矿工安全行为评价方法[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(1):101-105.CHENG Weimin,ZHOU Gang,WANG Gang,et al.Evaluation method of miners’safety behavior based on gray-fuzzy-improving momentum BP algorithm[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(1):101-105.
[8]金佩剑,王恩元,刘晓斐,等.冲击地压危险性综合评价的突变级数法研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(2):256-261.JIN Peijian,WANG Enyuan,LIU Xiaofei,et al.Catastrophe progression method on comprehensive evaluation of rock burst[J].Journal of Mining and Safety Engineering,2013,30(2):256-261.
[9]FALLAVENA V L V,PIRES M J R,FERRARINI S F,et al.Evaluation of zeolite/backfill blend for acid mine drainage remediation in coal mine[J].Energy&Fuels,2018,32(2):42-55.
[10]高峰,张志镇,高亚楠,等.基于盲数理论的冲击地压危险性评价模型[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(增1):28-32.GAO Feng,ZHANG Zhizhen,GAO Yanan,et al.Evaluation model of rock burst risk in mining based on blind data theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(S1):28-32.
[11]陈光波.煤岩组合体动力破坏规律实验研究[D].哈尔滨:黑龙江科技大学,2016:22-30.
[12]张志镇,高峰,许爱斌,等.冲击地压危险性的集对分析评价模型[J].中国矿业大学学报,2011,40(3):379-384.ZHANG Zhizhen,GAO Feng,XU Aibin,et al.Model for estimating rock burst risk in a coal mine based on set pair analysis[J].Journal of China University of Mining and Technology,2011,40(3):379-384.
[13]朱峰,张宏伟.基于“AHP+熵权法”的CW-TOPSIS冲击地压评判模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):128-133.ZHU Feng,ZHANG Hongwei.“AHP+entropy weight method”based CW-TOPSIS model for predicting rockburst[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(1):128-133.
[14]张开智,夏均民.冲击危险性综合评价的变权识别模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,32(20):3480-3483.ZHANG Kaizhi,XIA Junmin.Weight-variable identification model of comprehensive evaluation on burst liability of coal[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,32(20):3480-3483.
[15]赵传奇,张巨伟,孙蕴,等.基于三角模糊数的加氢裂化装置火灾爆炸事故树的分析与应用[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(6):119-122.ZHAO Chuanqi,ZHANG Juwei,SUN Yun,et al.Analysis and application of fire and explosion fault tree in hydrocracking unit based on triangular fuzzy number[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2017,24(6):119-122.
[16]WANG D,BORTHWICK A G,HE H,et al.A hybrid wavelet de-noising and rank-set pair analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series[J].Environmental Research,2018,160(34):269-281.
[17]GARG H,KUMAR K.Distance measures for connection number sets based on set pair analysis and its applications to decision-making process[J].Applied Intelligence,2018,28(1):1-14.
[18]FIGUEROA-GARCIA J C,CHALCO-CANO Y,ROMAN-FLORES H.Yager index and ranking for interval type-2fuzzy numbers[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2018,26(5):2709-2718.