近30年我国谷子生产时空变化与区域优势研究
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摘要
【目的】谷子营养丰富、生育期短、抗旱耐瘠,谷子种植对优化干旱半干旱地区农业种植结构和促进农民增收具有重要作用。分析我国谷子生产时空变化特征与区域优势,以期为优化谷子布局和促进谷子生产发展提供建议与理论依据。【方法】基于1985—2015年谷子各省、县域生产统计数据,采用产量贡献率、重心迁移、比较优势指数等指标,分析了我国谷子生产时空变化规律。【结果】30年间全国谷子播种面积由3.318×10~6hm~2减少至7.88×10~5hm~2后回升至8.39×10~5hm~2,单产由1 801.2 kg·hm~(-2)提高至2 342.9 kg·hm~(-2),总产量变化中面积贡献率为80.3%,单产贡献率为18.4%,且单产贡献率逐渐增加。全国谷子生产重心年际间变化较小,优势产区稳定在东北地区中西部、黄淮海平原中北部和北部中低高原区东南部,具体集中在内蒙东部、东北三省与内蒙接壤的县域、河北大部、河南西北部、山东中部、山西大部、陕西北部、甘肃东部及宁夏中部。30年间黄淮海平原区、东北地区与西北部分县域单产增加但播种面积大量减少,使该区域表现为单产优势与面积劣势,2000年后北部中低高原区的吉林通榆、内蒙敖汉旗与山西部分县域的播种面积回升。播种面积较大而单产劣势的县域集中在黄土高原地区的陕西和山西中北部部分县域。【结论】30年来全国谷子播种面积先减后增,生产集中程度不断增大,优势产区趋于稳定,单产逐步提升。黄淮海地区被夏玉米替代的夏谷较难恢复,东北地区中西部、北方农牧交错区及太行山沿线区谷子生产具有恢复潜力。谷子育种、栽培技术与生产加工机械的进步,对谷子生产提质增效与实现产业化发展至关重要。
【Objective】Foxtail millet(Setariaitalica(L.)P.Beauv.)is rich in nutrition,has a short growth period,and is resistant to drought and barren.Planting foxtail millet plays an important role in optimizing the agricultural planting structure and promoting farmers’income in arid and semi-arid areas.It was of great significance for the sustainable development of foxtail millet production to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and regional advantages of foxtail millet production in China.【Method】Based on the provincial and county production statistics of foxtail millet from 1985 to 2015,the spatial and temporal variation rules of foxtail millet production in China were analyzed by using the yield contribution rate,center of gravity migration,comparative advantage index and other indicators.【Result】In the last thirty years,the sown area of foxtail millet in China decreased from3.318×10~(6 )hm~(2 )to 7.88×10~(5 )hm~(2 )and then recovered to 8.39×10~(5 )hm~2.The yield increased from 1 801.2 kg·hm~(-2 )to 2 342.9 kg·hm~(-2).The area contribution rate of total production change was 80.3%,the yield contribution rate was 18.4%,and the yield contribution rate gradually increased.The center of foxtail millet production in China varied little in recent 30 years.The advantageous production areas were stable in the midwest part of northeast China,the north-central part of the North China Plain and the southeastern part of the middle-low plateau area in the north,which were concentrated in the counties bordering Inner Mongolia and the three provinces in northeast China,most of Hebei,northwest Henan,central Shandong,most of Shanxi,northern Shaanxi,eastern Gansu and central Ningxia.In the last thirty years,the yield increased in the North China Plain,the northeast plain and some counties in the northwest area,but the sown area decreased significantly,which made these regions show efficiency advantage and scale disadvantage.After2000,the sown area of Jilin Tongyu,Inner Mongolia Aohan banner and some counties in Shanxi province in the middle and low plateau area in the north were recovered.The counties with scale advantage and efficiency disadvantage were concentrated in Shaanxi and parts of north-central Shanxi in Loess Plateau area.【Conclusion】In the past 30 years,the sown area of millet decreased first and then increased,the concentration of foxtail millet production in China had been increasing,the advantageous production areas tended to be stable,and the yield had been gradually increased.The summer foxtail millet replaced by summer corn in North China Plain was difficult to recover,and the foxtail millet production in the midwest regions of northeast China,the northern agro-pastoral interleaving areas and the areas along Taihang mountain had the potential to recover.The progress of foxtail millet breeding,cultivation technology and production processing machinery were very important for improving the quality and efficiency of foxtail millet production and realizing industrialization development.
【Objective】Foxtail millet(Setariaitalica(L.)P.Beauv.)is rich in nutrition,has a short growth period,and is resistant to drought and barren.Planting foxtail millet plays an important role in optimizing the agricultural planting structure and promoting farmers’income in arid and semi-arid areas.It was of great significance for the sustainable development of foxtail millet production to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and regional advantages of foxtail millet production in China.【Method】Based on the provincial and county production statistics of foxtail millet from 1985 to 2015,the spatial and temporal variation rules of foxtail millet production in China were analyzed by using the yield contribution rate,center of gravity migration,comparative advantage index and other indicators.【Result】In the last thirty years,the sown area of foxtail millet in China decreased from3.318×10~(6 )hm~(2 )to 7.88×10~(5 )hm~(2 )and then recovered to 8.39×10~(5 )hm~2.The yield increased from 1 801.2 kg·hm~(-2 )to 2 342.9 kg·hm~(-2).The area contribution rate of total production change was 80.3%,the yield contribution rate was 18.4%,and the yield contribution rate gradually increased.The center of foxtail millet production in China varied little in recent 30 years.The advantageous production areas were stable in the midwest part of northeast China,the north-central part of the North China Plain and the southeastern part of the middle-low plateau area in the north,which were concentrated in the counties bordering Inner Mongolia and the three provinces in northeast China,most of Hebei,northwest Henan,central Shandong,most of Shanxi,northern Shaanxi,eastern Gansu and central Ningxia.In the last thirty years,the yield increased in the North China Plain,the northeast plain and some counties in the northwest area,but the sown area decreased significantly,which made these regions show efficiency advantage and scale disadvantage.After2000,the sown area of Jilin Tongyu,Inner Mongolia Aohan banner and some counties in Shanxi province in the middle and low plateau area in the north were recovered.The counties with scale advantage and efficiency disadvantage were concentrated in Shaanxi and parts of north-central Shanxi in Loess Plateau area.【Conclusion】In the past 30 years,the sown area of millet decreased first and then increased,the concentration of foxtail millet production in China had been increasing,the advantageous production areas tended to be stable,and the yield had been gradually increased.The summer foxtail millet replaced by summer corn in North China Plain was difficult to recover,and the foxtail millet production in the midwest regions of northeast China,the northern agro-pastoral interleaving areas and the areas along Taihang mountain had the potential to recover.The progress of foxtail millet breeding,cultivation technology and production processing machinery were very important for improving the quality and efficiency of foxtail millet production and realizing industrialization development.
引文
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