基于约束线性回归的柔鱼栖息地指数渔场预报模型构建
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摘要
柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)是我国在西北太平洋重要的商业捕捞对象,对其渔场进行准确预报是提高渔业生产能力的重要内容。本研究分别选取2005~2013年我国在该海域的柔鱼渔获量和捕捞努力量作为计算适宜度指数(SI)的2种指标,利用包括海表温度、叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度、表温梯度强度和100 m水深的Argo浮标水温数据在内的海洋环境因子,通过非线性回归,生成了不同环境因子的SI曲线。在考虑约束条件的前提下,建立2种柔鱼渔场的栖息地指数(HSI)模型,并利用逐步回归剔除不显著的解释变量。2种模型拟合优度比较的结果显示,利用渔获量建立的模型具有更高的精度,其中,7~11月模型的调整后相关系数分别为0.853(P<0.001)、0.773(P<0.001)、0.789(P<0.001)、0.745(P<0.001)和0.724(P<0.0001)。各环境因子的SI权重系数符合约束条件,并随着季节的变化,权重值有所不同。在主要渔汛期间(7、8和10月),100 m水深温度的SI对HSI得分起到了最关键作用;而在渔汛末期(11月),与海表温度相关的SI成为影响HSI的最重要因子。利用该模型对2014年进行预报实验,预报结果与实际渔场在空间分布上具有一致性。全年统计结果显示,高HSI(>0.7)的区域渔获量占总渔获量的49.06%,而低HSI(<0.3)区域渔获量仅占9.06%,表明该模型具有一定的渔场预报能力。
Neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) is an important commercial fishing target for China in Northwest Pacific. Accurate prediction of fishing grounds can improve the squid production capacity. The present study selected historical catch and fishing effort data of Chinese squid-jigging fishery from 2005 to 2013 as suitability index(SI) sources. SI curves were created through nonlinear regression based on 4 environmental factors, including sea surface temperature(SST), chlorophyll-aconcentration(Chl-a), SST gradient(Grad) and the temperature of 100 m water layer(T100) from Argo float dataset. On the premise of given constrained conditions, two habitat suitability index(HSI) models were constructed based on catch and fishing effort. Non-significant explanatory variables in the model were eliminated via the stepwise regressions. By comparing the goodness-of-fit of two models, catch-based model provided higher accuracy than fishing effort-based one. The adjusted correlation coefficients were 0.853(P<0.001), 0.773(P<0.001), 0.789(P<0.001), 0.745(P<0.001) and 0.724(P<0.0001) from July to November, respectively. The weight coefficients of SI for environmental factors were in accord with the constraint and seasonally varied. In particular, the SI of T100 played the most important role in the HSI score in the main fishing season(July, August and October) while the SI of SST was the major factor to affect HSI in November. The forecast experiment of HSI model was carried out with environmental factors in 2014. Spatial position of forecasted fishing grounds were consistent with actual ones, and catch in high HSI(>0.7) regions accounted for 49.06% of the total catch, while catch in low HSI(<0.3) regions accounted for only 9.06% of the total catch. These findings indicate that the HSI model is able to predict neon flying squid fishing grounds in Northwest Pacific.
Neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) is an important commercial fishing target for China in Northwest Pacific. Accurate prediction of fishing grounds can improve the squid production capacity. The present study selected historical catch and fishing effort data of Chinese squid-jigging fishery from 2005 to 2013 as suitability index(SI) sources. SI curves were created through nonlinear regression based on 4 environmental factors, including sea surface temperature(SST), chlorophyll-aconcentration(Chl-a), SST gradient(Grad) and the temperature of 100 m water layer(T100) from Argo float dataset. On the premise of given constrained conditions, two habitat suitability index(HSI) models were constructed based on catch and fishing effort. Non-significant explanatory variables in the model were eliminated via the stepwise regressions. By comparing the goodness-of-fit of two models, catch-based model provided higher accuracy than fishing effort-based one. The adjusted correlation coefficients were 0.853(P<0.001), 0.773(P<0.001), 0.789(P<0.001), 0.745(P<0.001) and 0.724(P<0.0001) from July to November, respectively. The weight coefficients of SI for environmental factors were in accord with the constraint and seasonally varied. In particular, the SI of T100 played the most important role in the HSI score in the main fishing season(July, August and October) while the SI of SST was the major factor to affect HSI in November. The forecast experiment of HSI model was carried out with environmental factors in 2014. Spatial position of forecasted fishing grounds were consistent with actual ones, and catch in high HSI(>0.7) regions accounted for 49.06% of the total catch, while catch in low HSI(<0.3) regions accounted for only 9.06% of the total catch. These findings indicate that the HSI model is able to predict neon flying squid fishing grounds in Northwest Pacific.
引文
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Chen CS,Chiu TS.Abundance and spatial variation of Ommastrephes bartramii(Mollusca:Cephalopoda)in the eastern North Pacific observed from an exploratory survey.Acta Zoologica Taiwanica,1999,10(2):135-144
Chen CS,Chiu TS.Variations of life history parameters in two geographical groups of the neon flying squid,Ommastrephes bartramii,from the North Pacific.Fisheries Research,2003,63(3):349-366
Chen X,Li G,Feng B,et al.Habitat suitability index of Chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)from July to September in the East China Sea.Journal of Oceanography,2009,65(1):93-102
Chen X,Tian S,Chen Y,et al.A modeling approach to identify optimal habitat and suitable fishing grounds for neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.Fishery Bulletin,2010,108(1):1-14
Chen X,Tian S,Guan W.Variations of oceanic fronts and their influence on the fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,33(4):45-54
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Cao J,Chen X,Tian S.A Bayesian hierarchical De Lury model for stock assessment of the west winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii)in the northwest Pacific Ocean.Bulletin of Marine Science,2014,91(1):1-13
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Chen CS,Chiu TS.Variations of life history parameters in two geographical groups of the neon flying squid,Ommastrephes bartramii,from the North Pacific.Fisheries Research,2003,63(3):349-366
Chen X,Li G,Feng B,et al.Habitat suitability index of Chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)from July to September in the East China Sea.Journal of Oceanography,2009,65(1):93-102
Chen X,Tian S,Chen Y,et al.A modeling approach to identify optimal habitat and suitable fishing grounds for neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.Fishery Bulletin,2010,108(1):1-14
Chen X,Tian S,Guan W.Variations of oceanic fronts and their influence on the fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,33(4):45-54
Chen XJ,Cao J,Liu BL,et al.Stock assessment and management of Ommartrephes bartramii by using a Bayesian Schaefer model in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.Journal of Fisheries of China,2011,35(10):1572-1581[陈新军,曹杰,刘必林,等.基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理.水产学报,2011,35(10):1573-1581]
Chen XJ,Liu BL,Tian SQ,et al.Forecasting the fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii with SST-based habitat suitability modelling in Northwestern Pacific.Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica,2009,40(6):707-713[陈新军,刘必林,田思泉,等.利用基于表温因子的栖息地模型预测西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)渔场.海洋与湖沼,2009,40(6):707-713]
Chen XJ,Tian SQ.Effects of SST and temp-spatial factors on abundance of neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartrami in the Northwestern Pacific using generalized additive models.Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2007(2):104-133[陈新军,田思泉.利用GAM模型分析表温和时空因子对西北太平洋海域柔鱼资源状况的影响.海洋湖沼通报,2007(2):104-113]
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Chen XJ.An approach to the relationship between the squid fishing ground and water temperature in the Northwestern Pacific.Journal of Shanghai Fisheries University,1995,4(3):181-185[陈新军.西北太平洋柔鱼渔场与水温因子的关系.上海水产大学学报,1995,4(3):181-185]
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Cui XS,Tang FH,Zhang H,et al.The establishment of Northwest Pacific Ommastrephes bartramii fishing ground forecasting model based on naive Bayes method.Periodical of Ocean University of China,2015,45(2):37-43[崔雪森,唐峰华,张衡,等.基于朴素贝叶斯的西北太平洋柔鱼渔场预报模型的建立.中国海洋大学学报,2015,45(2):37-43]
Cui XS,Tang FH,Zhou WF,et al.Fishing ground forecasting model of Ommastrephes bartramii based on support vector machine(SVM)in the Northwest Pacific.South China Fisheries Science,2016,12(5):1-7[崔雪森,唐峰华,周为峰,等.基于支持向量机的西北太平洋柔鱼渔场预报模型构建.南方水产科学,2016,12(5):1-7]
Ding Q,Chen XJ,Wang JT.Comparison habitat suitability index model of Illex argentinus and its application into fishing ground forecasting.Progress in Fishery Sciences,2015,36(3):8-13[丁琪,陈新军,汪金涛.阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)适宜栖息地模型比较及其在渔场预报中的应用.渔业科学进展,2015,36(3):8-13]
Fan JT,Chen ZZ,Zhang J,et al.Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis fishing grounds analysis based on marine environmental factors and different weight coefficients in the Zhongsha and Xisha Islands,South China Sea.South China Fisheries Science,2016,12(4):57-63[范江涛,陈作志,张俊,等.基于海洋环境因子和不同权重系数的南海中沙西沙海域鸢乌贼渔场分析.南方水产科学,2016,12(4):57-63]
Feng B,Chen XJ,Xu LX.Study on distribution of Thunnuns obesus in the Indian Ocean based on habitat suitability index.Journal of Fisheries of China,2007,31(6):805-812[冯波,陈新军,许柳雄.应用栖息地指数对印度洋大眼金枪鱼分布模式的研究.水产学报,2007,31(6):805-812]
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