1993—2011年日照市3种重点传染病发病率变化趋势分析
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摘要
目的分析日照市1993—2011年甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性出血热3种重点传染病发病率的变化趋势和规律。方法 2012年7月通过逐年计算传染病发病率,采用线性回归分析方法,用平均增长速度、年度变化百分比统计指标分析变化趋势和规律。采用线性回归分析,计算出相关系数,P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性出血热19年间的平均增长速度分别为-0.1702,-0.09,-0.10;年度变化速率分别为-51.2,-47.1,-270,比较均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论日照市的甲型肝炎、痢疾、流行性出血热几种重点传染病发病率呈明显下降趋势,说明实施的针对性预防控制措施产生了积极作用,未来应继续保持防控措施,将发病率控制在低水平。
Objective This study was designed to analyze the incidence trend of three major infectious diseases including hepatitis A,dysentery and epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Rizhao during the period 1993-2011.Methods The incidence of infectious disease was calculated annually from July 2012.Linear regression analysis method was applied to analyze the trend,together with the statistical indicators of average increasing rate(AIR) and annual percent change(APC).Using a linear regression anakysis to calculate the cowe lation coefficient,the resultof P<0.05was considered to be statistically significant.Results The AIR of hepatitis A,dysentery and epidemic hemorrhagic fever in the 19 years were-0.1702,-0.09,-0.10 respectively,and the APC were-51.2,-47.1,-270 respectively,the differences were statistically significant(alP<0.05).Conclusions The incidence of three major infectious diseases shows an obvious decreasing trend,proving that the measures taken in the past have played an active role in disease prevention and control.Prevention and control measures should be continued in future to control the incidence at a low level.
Objective This study was designed to analyze the incidence trend of three major infectious diseases including hepatitis A,dysentery and epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Rizhao during the period 1993-2011.Methods The incidence of infectious disease was calculated annually from July 2012.Linear regression analysis method was applied to analyze the trend,together with the statistical indicators of average increasing rate(AIR) and annual percent change(APC).Using a linear regression anakysis to calculate the cowe lation coefficient,the resultof P<0.05was considered to be statistically significant.Results The AIR of hepatitis A,dysentery and epidemic hemorrhagic fever in the 19 years were-0.1702,-0.09,-0.10 respectively,and the APC were-51.2,-47.1,-270 respectively,the differences were statistically significant(alP<0.05).Conclusions The incidence of three major infectious diseases shows an obvious decreasing trend,proving that the measures taken in the past have played an active role in disease prevention and control.Prevention and control measures should be continued in future to control the incidence at a low level.
引文
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[3]宋冰冰,刘巍.哈尔滨市南岗区脑瘤发病率时间趋势分析及预测[J].哈尔滨医科大学学报,2008,42(4):437-438.
[4]张敬平,林玉娣.无锡市1950年～2003年疾病谱变化分析[J].江苏预防医学,2005,16(1):66-68.
[5]毕秀娟.山东省重点传染病的生态地理区划研究[D].济南:山东大学,2009.
[6]赵科伕,吴金菊.合肥市2004～2009年法定报告传染病的疫情分析[J].现代预防医学,2012,38(11):68-69.
[7]耿越利,毋维,周文利,等.西安市碑林区2002-2006年法定传染病构成分析[J].职业与健康,2008,24(13):1285-1286.
[8]孙雪龙.苏州市相城区黄埭镇2004-2008年法定传染病流行趋势分析[J].中国初级卫生保健,2010,24(8):69-70.