基于博弈论-云模型的露天矿岩质边坡稳定性分析
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摘要
针对露天矿岩质边坡稳定性具有随机性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于博弈论-云模型的边坡稳定性分级评价方法。首先,通过分析边坡稳定性影响因素,构建了包括地质、环境和工程条件等多方面的综合指标评价体系;其次,采用改进层次分析和熵权理论分别确定指标的主观和客观权重,基于博弈论计算指标综合权重;最后,通过计算综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则确定边坡的稳定性等级。将所建立的评价模型应用到某露天矿边坡稳定性评价中,结果显示该模型的评价结果与实际情况完全符合,与未确知测度和可拓学理论的评价结果一致,表明该模型具有一定可靠性和实用性。
The present paper intends to establish a new analysis method for the rock slope stability based on the game theory and the cloud theory in view of the fuzziness and randomness of the slope stability of such open-pit mines. For the said purpose,we have first of all made a thorough analysis of the chief factors affecting the slope stability,mainly including the following 12 factors,that is,the compressive strength of the rock mass,the status-in-situ of the elasticity,the Poisson ratio,the rock quality designation,the cohesion,the internal friction angle,the maximum daily precipitation, the groundwater state situation, the height and the inclining degree of the rock slope,the intensity of the likely taking-place earthquake and vibration velocity of the blasting particles based on the relevant geological,environmental and engineering factors. All of the above mentioned factors under study should be categorized into 5 levels,that is,the stability level,the sub-stability level,the less stability level,the instability level,and last of all,the extremely instable one. And,next,we have identified and determined the digital cloud features on the basis of the above categorization rule and work out the corresponding cloud model via the normal cloud generator. Besides,the certainty degree of all the indexes in correspondence with each evaluation degree can be deduced based on the said cloud models. Besides,what is also worth to mention is that,in the given paper,we have also managed to improve the analytic hierarchical process and the entropy weight theory for determining the subjective and objective weights for each index,and introduced the game theory to find the comprehensive weights of each index,so that we can work out the comprehensive determination degree of the slope stability degrees on the basis of each index weight and certainty degree,as well as the slope stability degree on the maximum membership degree principle. Thus,finally,the slope stability level has been determined by using the analysis model with the analysis results demonstraitng that the stability degree of the aforementioned 3 slopes turn out to be respectively of 3 levels,that is,stable,sub-stable,and,less stable,which are fully consistent with the results of uncertainty measurement and extenics theory in line with the actual investigation on the spot. Therefore,it can be concluded that the evaluation model of the slope stability proves to be feasible and fully applicable as a novel reliable method for rock slope stability analysis.
The present paper intends to establish a new analysis method for the rock slope stability based on the game theory and the cloud theory in view of the fuzziness and randomness of the slope stability of such open-pit mines. For the said purpose,we have first of all made a thorough analysis of the chief factors affecting the slope stability,mainly including the following 12 factors,that is,the compressive strength of the rock mass,the status-in-situ of the elasticity,the Poisson ratio,the rock quality designation,the cohesion,the internal friction angle,the maximum daily precipitation, the groundwater state situation, the height and the inclining degree of the rock slope,the intensity of the likely taking-place earthquake and vibration velocity of the blasting particles based on the relevant geological,environmental and engineering factors. All of the above mentioned factors under study should be categorized into 5 levels,that is,the stability level,the sub-stability level,the less stability level,the instability level,and last of all,the extremely instable one. And,next,we have identified and determined the digital cloud features on the basis of the above categorization rule and work out the corresponding cloud model via the normal cloud generator. Besides,the certainty degree of all the indexes in correspondence with each evaluation degree can be deduced based on the said cloud models. Besides,what is also worth to mention is that,in the given paper,we have also managed to improve the analytic hierarchical process and the entropy weight theory for determining the subjective and objective weights for each index,and introduced the game theory to find the comprehensive weights of each index,so that we can work out the comprehensive determination degree of the slope stability degrees on the basis of each index weight and certainty degree,as well as the slope stability degree on the maximum membership degree principle. Thus,finally,the slope stability level has been determined by using the analysis model with the analysis results demonstraitng that the stability degree of the aforementioned 3 slopes turn out to be respectively of 3 levels,that is,stable,sub-stable,and,less stable,which are fully consistent with the results of uncertainty measurement and extenics theory in line with the actual investigation on the spot. Therefore,it can be concluded that the evaluation model of the slope stability proves to be feasible and fully applicable as a novel reliable method for rock slope stability analysis.
引文
[1] WU Zhen(武震),LI Wenxiu(李文秀),LEI Zhen(雷振),et al. Analysis method of slope stability in open pitiron mine[J]. Mining and Metallurgy Engineering(矿冶工程),2017,37(1):18-20,24.
[2] XIE Yongsheng(谢永生),WU Shunchuan(吴顺川),LIU Yang(刘洋). Influence of blasting vibration on slopestability of Luan Syam Leah F copper mine[J]. Nonfer-rous Metals Engineering(有色金属工程),2014,4(6):61-64.
[3] ZHAO Bin(赵彬),LI Xiaobei(李小贝),DAI Xingguo(戴兴国),et al. Unascertained analysis of slope stabili-ty based on variable weight theory[J]. Gold Science andTechnology(黄金科学技术),2016,24(6):90-95
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[5] ZHAO Zhifeng(赵志峰),XU Weiya(徐卫亚). Comprehen-sive evaluation of slope safety and stability based on catastro-phe theory[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2007,26(S1):2707-2712.
[6] PURBA J H. A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evalu-ate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear powerplant probabilistic safety assessment[J]. Annals of Nucle-ar Energy,2014,70(1):21-29.
[7] LIU Chun(刘春),DU Junsheng(杜俊生),WANG Jingkun(王敬堃). Prediction of slope stability based on grey rela-tional analysis[J]. Journal of Underground Space and Engi-neering(地下空间与工程学报),2017,13(5):424-430.
[8] ZHANG Hongyun(张宏云). Application of fuzzy mathematicsin slope stability evaluation(模糊数学在边坡稳定性评价中的应用)[D]. Kunming:Kunming University of Science andTechnology,2011.
[9] YUAN Aiping(袁爱平). Prediction of rock slope stabilitybased on AHP normal cloud model[J]. Hydropower Ener-gy Science(水电能源科学),2016,34(9):153-156.
[10] ZHANG Jun(张军),CHEN Zhengzhou(陈征宙),LIUDengfeng(刘登峰). Evaluation of rock slope stabilitybased on cloud model[J]. Hydrogeology and EngineeringGeology(水文地质工程地质),2014,41(6):44-50.
[11] WANG Xinmin(王新民),RONG Shuai(荣帅),ZHAOMaoyang(赵茂阳),et al. Concentration equipment optimi-zation based on VWT and TOPSIS[J]. Gold Science andTechnology(黄金科学技术),2017,25(3):77-83.
[12] DING Lihong(丁丽宏). Slope stability research basedon Improved Grey Relational Analysis and analytic hierar-chy process[J]. Geotechnical Mechanics(岩土力学),2011,32(11):3437-3441.
[13] WANG Xinmin(王新民),KANG Qian(康虔),QINJianchun(秦健春),et al. The application of analytic hi-erarchy process-extenics model in the stability evaluationof rock slope stability[J]. Journal of Central South Uni-versity:Natural Science Edition(中南大学学报:自然科学版)2013,44(6):2455-2462.
[14] TIAN Mingwu(田明武). Dam safety evaluation cloudmodel based on game theory and its application[J]. Hy-dropower and Energy Science(水电能源科学),2016,34(3):94-97.
[15] ZHONG Jun(钟军),LIU Mingjun(刘明俊),LUOChen(罗晨),et al. Ship-bridge collision risk assess-ment based on the combined weights and matter elementmodel[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2018,18(2):423-428.
[16] XU Zhengjie(徐征捷),ZHANG Youpeng(张友鹏),SU Hongsheng(苏宏升). Application of fuzzy compre-hensive evaluation based on cloud model in risk assess-ment[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2014,14(2):69-72.
[2] XIE Yongsheng(谢永生),WU Shunchuan(吴顺川),LIU Yang(刘洋). Influence of blasting vibration on slopestability of Luan Syam Leah F copper mine[J]. Nonfer-rous Metals Engineering(有色金属工程),2014,4(6):61-64.
[3] ZHAO Bin(赵彬),LI Xiaobei(李小贝),DAI Xingguo(戴兴国),et al. Unascertained analysis of slope stabili-ty based on variable weight theory[J]. Gold Science andTechnology(黄金科学技术),2016,24(6):90-95
[4] KHAJEHZADEH M,TAHA M R,EL-SHAFIE A,et al.A modified gravitational search algorithm for slope stabili-ty analysis[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intel-ligence,2012,25(8):1589-1597.
[5] ZHAO Zhifeng(赵志峰),XU Weiya(徐卫亚). Comprehen-sive evaluation of slope safety and stability based on catastro-phe theory[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering(岩石力学与工程学报),2007,26(S1):2707-2712.
[6] PURBA J H. A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evalu-ate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear powerplant probabilistic safety assessment[J]. Annals of Nucle-ar Energy,2014,70(1):21-29.
[7] LIU Chun(刘春),DU Junsheng(杜俊生),WANG Jingkun(王敬堃). Prediction of slope stability based on grey rela-tional analysis[J]. Journal of Underground Space and Engi-neering(地下空间与工程学报),2017,13(5):424-430.
[8] ZHANG Hongyun(张宏云). Application of fuzzy mathematicsin slope stability evaluation(模糊数学在边坡稳定性评价中的应用)[D]. Kunming:Kunming University of Science andTechnology,2011.
[9] YUAN Aiping(袁爱平). Prediction of rock slope stabilitybased on AHP normal cloud model[J]. Hydropower Ener-gy Science(水电能源科学),2016,34(9):153-156.
[10] ZHANG Jun(张军),CHEN Zhengzhou(陈征宙),LIUDengfeng(刘登峰). Evaluation of rock slope stabilitybased on cloud model[J]. Hydrogeology and EngineeringGeology(水文地质工程地质),2014,41(6):44-50.
[11] WANG Xinmin(王新民),RONG Shuai(荣帅),ZHAOMaoyang(赵茂阳),et al. Concentration equipment optimi-zation based on VWT and TOPSIS[J]. Gold Science andTechnology(黄金科学技术),2017,25(3):77-83.
[12] DING Lihong(丁丽宏). Slope stability research basedon Improved Grey Relational Analysis and analytic hierar-chy process[J]. Geotechnical Mechanics(岩土力学),2011,32(11):3437-3441.
[13] WANG Xinmin(王新民),KANG Qian(康虔),QINJianchun(秦健春),et al. The application of analytic hi-erarchy process-extenics model in the stability evaluationof rock slope stability[J]. Journal of Central South Uni-versity:Natural Science Edition(中南大学学报:自然科学版)2013,44(6):2455-2462.
[14] TIAN Mingwu(田明武). Dam safety evaluation cloudmodel based on game theory and its application[J]. Hy-dropower and Energy Science(水电能源科学),2016,34(3):94-97.
[15] ZHONG Jun(钟军),LIU Mingjun(刘明俊),LUOChen(罗晨),et al. Ship-bridge collision risk assess-ment based on the combined weights and matter elementmodel[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2018,18(2):423-428.
[16] XU Zhengjie(徐征捷),ZHANG Youpeng(张友鹏),SU Hongsheng(苏宏升). Application of fuzzy compre-hensive evaluation based on cloud model in risk assess-ment[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2014,14(2):69-72.