基于水资源承载力的黑河中游生态建设空间格局优化
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摘要
以黑河中游为研究区,基于系统动力学模型、灰色线性规划模型和Dyna-CLUES模型,在揭示区域水资源承载力的基础上进行景观结构优化,并通过耕地、林地和草地分布概率的博弈,进行退耕还林区、退耕还草区和人工造林区的空间位置识别,得到如下结果。到2020年,在水资源满足生产发展、生活保障和生态优化的情景下,黑河中游水资源可承载人口为144.16万,可承载工业增加值为79.73亿元,可承载耕地、林地和草地面积分别为3027.88, 953.535和3947.115 km~2。以水资源承载能力为基本约束,黑河中游景观最优结构为耕地2742.49 km~2,林地846.456 km~2,草地2184.57 km~2,水域170.671 km~2,建设用地364.509 km~2,未利用地13289.23km~2。生态建设空间分布格局较分散,退耕还林区集中在高台、临泽和甘州绿洲边缘,以期增强绿洲抵御风沙功能;退耕还草区集中在山丹和肃南的海拔较高、坡度较大、水资源和耕作条件均较差的区域,以期减轻区域水资源压力;人工造林区集中在民乐和山丹两县的耕地外围,以地势平坦、水资源条件相对较好的未利用地为主,以期增强区域水源涵养、水土保持和防风固沙等功能。
This paper takes the middle reaches of Heihe River as the study area, where has the most concentrated oasis in Northwest China with fragile ecological environment and huge conflict between water supply and demand.The water carrying capacity was analyzed based on SD model. Then, the land use quantity structure optimization was carried out by grey linear planning model under the constraint of water resource carrying capacity. Next, the probability of cultivated land, forest and grass land was calculated by the space optimization module of DynaCLUES model, and the optimized spatial pattern were identified through probability game. The results show that when the balance between the supply and demand of water resources is achieved in 2020, the research area can support 1.44 million people, 7.973 billion industrial added values, separately the forests, grass land and cultivated land that the research area can support is 953.535 km~2, 3947.115 km~2 and 3027.88 km~2. The best landscape quantity structure include 2742.49 km~2 cultivated land, 846.456 km~2 forest, 2184.57 km~2 grass land, 170.671 km~2 water area, 364.509 km~2 construction land and 13289.23 km~2 unutilized land. The implementation of returning cropland to forests can enhance the ability of oasis areas to resist hazards caused by wind and sand, mainly in Gaotai, Linze and Ganzhou. The locations of returning cropland to grassland focus in Shandan and Sunan with high altitude,steep slope and poor water, which have poor soil condition and is inappropriate for forest. Forest plantation locations focus in the periphery of cropland in Minle and Shandan, and those areas mainly are flat unused land with good water resource conditions, which are of great significance for water and soil conservation, wind prevention and sand fixation.
This paper takes the middle reaches of Heihe River as the study area, where has the most concentrated oasis in Northwest China with fragile ecological environment and huge conflict between water supply and demand.The water carrying capacity was analyzed based on SD model. Then, the land use quantity structure optimization was carried out by grey linear planning model under the constraint of water resource carrying capacity. Next, the probability of cultivated land, forest and grass land was calculated by the space optimization module of DynaCLUES model, and the optimized spatial pattern were identified through probability game. The results show that when the balance between the supply and demand of water resources is achieved in 2020, the research area can support 1.44 million people, 7.973 billion industrial added values, separately the forests, grass land and cultivated land that the research area can support is 953.535 km~2, 3947.115 km~2 and 3027.88 km~2. The best landscape quantity structure include 2742.49 km~2 cultivated land, 846.456 km~2 forest, 2184.57 km~2 grass land, 170.671 km~2 water area, 364.509 km~2 construction land and 13289.23 km~2 unutilized land. The implementation of returning cropland to forests can enhance the ability of oasis areas to resist hazards caused by wind and sand, mainly in Gaotai, Linze and Ganzhou. The locations of returning cropland to grassland focus in Shandan and Sunan with high altitude,steep slope and poor water, which have poor soil condition and is inappropriate for forest. Forest plantation locations focus in the periphery of cropland in Minle and Shandan, and those areas mainly are flat unused land with good water resource conditions, which are of great significance for water and soil conservation, wind prevention and sand fixation.
引文
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[11]薛小杰,惠泱河,黄强.城市水资源承载力及其实证研究.西北农业大学学报(自然科学版),2000,28(6):135-139
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[19]Aguilera F,Valenzuela L M,Botequilha-Leitao A.Landscape metrics in the analysis of urban land use patterns:a case study in a Spanish metropolitan area.Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,99(3/4):226-238
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[22]Spies T A,White E M,Kline J D,et al.Examining fire-prone forest landscapes as coupled human and natural systems.Ecology and Society,2014,19(3):9
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[24]刘彦随.区域土地利用优化配置.北京:学苑出版社,1999
[25]Verburg P H,Tabeau A,Hatna E.Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis:a study for land use in Europe.Journal of Environmental Management,2013,127(3):S132-S144
[26]李鑫,李宁,欧名豪.土地利用结构与布局优化研究述评.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(11):103-110
[27]Chuai X,Huang X,Lai L,et al.Land use structure optimization based on carbon storage in several regional terrestrial ecosystems across China.Environmental Science&Policy,2013,25(25):50-61
[28]何春阳,史培军,陈晋,等.基于系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究.中国科学:地球科学,2005,35(5):464-473
[29]Liu Y L,Tang W,He J H,et al.A land-use spatial optimization model based on genetic optimization and game theory.Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2015,49:1-14
[30]张济世,康尔泗,赵爱芬,等.黑河中游水土资源开发利用现状及水资源生态环境安全分析.地球科学进展,2003,18(2):207-213
[31]陈隆亨,李福兴.河西地区土壤.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2000:24-92
[32]朱一中,夏军,王纲胜.张掖地区水资源承载力多目标情景决策.地理研究,2005,24(5):732-740
[33]侯兰功,肖洪浪,邹松兵,等.黑河流域水循环特征研究.水土保持研究,2010,17(3):254-258
[34]朱洁,王烜,李春晖,等.系统动力学方法在水资源系统中的研究进展述评.水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):32-39
[35]闫昕.黑河中游灌区不同尺度灌溉水有效利用系数估算[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2015
[36]李鑫,马晓冬,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用布局优化.经济地理,2015,35(1):162-167
[37]倪琳.基于生态绿当量的土地利用结构优化研究--以湖北省潜江市为例.资源与产业,2008,8(4):51-58
[38]许小亮,李鑫,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化.生态学报,2016,36(17):5401-5410
[39]吴桂平,曾永年,冯学智,等.CLUE-S模型的改进与土地利用变化动态模拟--以张家界市永定区为例.地理研究,2010,29(3):460-470
[40]邵一希,李满春,陈振杰,等.地理加权回归在区域土地利用格局模拟中的应用--以常州市孟河镇为例.地理科学,2010,30(1):92-97
[41]Pontius R G,Schneider L C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA.Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85(1/2/3):239-248
[2]鲍超,方创琳.干旱区水资源开发利用对生态环境影响的研究进展与展望.地理科学进展,2008,27(3):38-46
[3]肖洪浪,程国栋,李彩芝,等.黑河流域生态-水文观测试验与水-生态集成管理研究.地球科学进展,2008,23(7):666-670
[4]程国栋,赵传燕.干旱区内陆河流域生态水文综合集成研究.地球科学进展,2008,23(10):1005-1012
[5]Souro D J.Carrying capacities and standards as bases towards urban infrastructure planning in india:a case of urban water supply and sanitation.Urban Infrastructure Planning in India,1998,22(3):327-337
[6]Abernethy V R.Carrying capacity:the tradition and policy implications.Ethics of Science and Environmental Politics,2001(1):9-18
[7]段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨.地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90
[8]Ehrlich A H.Looking for the ceiling:estimates of Earth’s carrying capacity.American Scientist,1996,84(5):494-495
[9]施雅风,曲耀光.乌鲁木齐河流域水资源承载力及其合理利用.北京:科学出版社,1992
[10]董雯,刘志辉.艾比湖流域水资源承载力综合评价.干旱区地理,2010,33(2):217-223
[11]薛小杰,惠泱河,黄强.城市水资源承载力及其实证研究.西北农业大学学报(自然科学版),2000,28(6):135-139
[12]王振江.系统动力学引论.上海:上海科学技术文献出版社,1988
[13]McHarg I L.Design with nature.Garden City,NY:Doubleday,1969
[14]Briggs D,France J.Classifying landscapes and habitats for regional environmental planning.Journal of Environmental Management.1983,19(3):249-261
[15]Steiner F,Brooks K.Ecological planning:a review.Environmental Management,1981,5(6):495-505
[16]De Groot R S,Alkemade R,Braat L,et al.Challenges in integrating the concept of ecosystem services and values in landscape planning,management and decision making.Ecological Complexity,2010,7(3):260-272
[17]Forman R T T.Land mosaics:the ecology of landscapes and regions.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995
[18]Lindenmayer D,Hobbs R J,Montague-Drake R,et al.A checklist for ecological management of landscapes for conservation.Ecology Letters,2010,11(1):78-91
[19]Aguilera F,Valenzuela L M,Botequilha-Leitao A.Landscape metrics in the analysis of urban land use patterns:a case study in a Spanish metropolitan area.Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,99(3/4):226-238
[20]Verboom J,Wamelink W.Spatial modeling in landscape ecology//Wiens J A,Moss M R.Issues in landscape ecology:proceedings of the fifth world congress.Snowmass Village,CO:International Association for Landscape Ecology,1999:38-44
[21]Jones M.The European landscape convention and the question of public participation.Landscape Research,2007,32(5):613-633
[22]Spies T A,White E M,Kline J D,et al.Examining fire-prone forest landscapes as coupled human and natural systems.Ecology and Society,2014,19(3):9
[23]Hulse D,Goorjian L,Richey D,et al.Possible futures for the Muddy Creek Watershed,Benton County,Oregon.Eugene,OR:University of Oregon,1997
[24]刘彦随.区域土地利用优化配置.北京:学苑出版社,1999
[25]Verburg P H,Tabeau A,Hatna E.Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis:a study for land use in Europe.Journal of Environmental Management,2013,127(3):S132-S144
[26]李鑫,李宁,欧名豪.土地利用结构与布局优化研究述评.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(11):103-110
[27]Chuai X,Huang X,Lai L,et al.Land use structure optimization based on carbon storage in several regional terrestrial ecosystems across China.Environmental Science&Policy,2013,25(25):50-61
[28]何春阳,史培军,陈晋,等.基于系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究.中国科学:地球科学,2005,35(5):464-473
[29]Liu Y L,Tang W,He J H,et al.A land-use spatial optimization model based on genetic optimization and game theory.Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2015,49:1-14
[30]张济世,康尔泗,赵爱芬,等.黑河中游水土资源开发利用现状及水资源生态环境安全分析.地球科学进展,2003,18(2):207-213
[31]陈隆亨,李福兴.河西地区土壤.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2000:24-92
[32]朱一中,夏军,王纲胜.张掖地区水资源承载力多目标情景决策.地理研究,2005,24(5):732-740
[33]侯兰功,肖洪浪,邹松兵,等.黑河流域水循环特征研究.水土保持研究,2010,17(3):254-258
[34]朱洁,王烜,李春晖,等.系统动力学方法在水资源系统中的研究进展述评.水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):32-39
[35]闫昕.黑河中游灌区不同尺度灌溉水有效利用系数估算[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2015
[36]李鑫,马晓冬,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用布局优化.经济地理,2015,35(1):162-167
[37]倪琳.基于生态绿当量的土地利用结构优化研究--以湖北省潜江市为例.资源与产业,2008,8(4):51-58
[38]许小亮,李鑫,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化.生态学报,2016,36(17):5401-5410
[39]吴桂平,曾永年,冯学智,等.CLUE-S模型的改进与土地利用变化动态模拟--以张家界市永定区为例.地理研究,2010,29(3):460-470
[40]邵一希,李满春,陈振杰,等.地理加权回归在区域土地利用格局模拟中的应用--以常州市孟河镇为例.地理科学,2010,30(1):92-97
[41]Pontius R G,Schneider L C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA.Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85(1/2/3):239-248