1971—2016年新疆南部冷空气过程频数变化特征
|
摘要
利用新疆南部塔里木盆地周边50个气象站1971年1月1日—2016年12月31日的最低气温资料,依据《冷空气等级标准》(GB/T20484-2006),整理出新疆南部近46 a来冷空气过程数据,采用合成、线性倾向估计、Morlet小波、Mann-kendall、滑动平均和累积距平检验等方法分析了单站及整个新疆南部冷空气过程频数的空间、时间变化特征。结果发现:(1)中等及以上等级冷空气过程频数高发地多分布于新疆南部的高原、山区和风口地带,单站各等级冷空气过程频数总体上呈线性减少趋势,整个新疆南部冷空气过程、寒潮过程频数减少趋势明显,递减率均为0.19次/10 a,其余等级变化趋势不明显;(2)新疆南部冷空气过程频数年均103.2次,弱冷空气过程频数86.3次占总次数的83.6%,中等强度冷空气过程频数10.4次占10.1%,较强、强、寒潮分别为2.5、2.3、2.2次,合计占冷空气过程总频数的6.8%;(3)各等级冷空气过程持续1～3 d的频率高达87.4%～95.4%,弱冷空气过程持续1d的频率最高,其余等级持续2 d的频率最高,3 d及以上的频率随着持续时间的增加明显下降;(4)各等级冷空气过程频数的年代际变化不大,20世纪70年代较强冷空气频繁,强冷空气及寒潮过程频数最多,分别为2.8、2.4、2.9次,80年代弱冷空气过程频数最多,达86.6次,近6 a(2011—2016年)中等强度冷空气过程频数最多,达10.8次;(5)不同等级冷空气过程的出现具有较强的季节性,中等、较强冷空气过程在夏季出现频数最多,分别占30.1%和57.9%,强冷空气过程在春季出现频数最多,占到40.1%,寒潮过程在冬季出现频数最多,占38.9%;(6)各等级冷空气过程频数序列均有8～10 a的年际尺度周期,年代际周期却不一致,寒潮过程频数在1979年发生显著的减少突变。
Based on the daily minimum temperature of 50 weather stations around the Tarim basin of Southern Xinjiang during 1971-2016,the temporal-spatial frequency distribution of the cold air process in single station and the whole area were analyzed by means of synthesis,linear propensity estimation,morlet wavelet,Mann-Kendall and Moving average and Cumulative anomaly according to"Cold Air Grate Standards"(GB/T20484-2006). The results showed that:(1) the cold air process which grade is medium and above was mostly distributed in the plateau,the mountainous area and the windy area. The cold air process of each grade in single station showed a linear decrease trend and not obvious in the most stations. The cold air and cold wave process decreased significantly in Southern Xinjiang which the decreasing rates were 0.19 times/10 a. However,the remaining grade has a little change.(2)The occurrence of cold air process was 103.2 times a year in the area,among them the weak and medium process occupied for 86.3 and 10.4 times,which amount to 83.6% and 10.1%respectively. The grade above strong cold air was totally 7.0 times,accounting for 6.8% of the total number.(3)The frequency percent of each cold air grade with 1 ～ 3 d was 87.4 ～ 95.4%,weak cold air with 1d duration and other process grade with 2 d duration has the highest frequency. The frequency with 3 days or above decreased significantly with the increase of duration.(4) The interdecadal frequency of different cold air process grades has little change. In 1970 s,the stronger,strong cold air and cold wave frequency was 2.8,2.4 and 2.9 times respectively. In 1980 s,the weak cold air reached 86.6 times. In the nearly 6 years(2011-2016) had the most moderate cold air,up to 10.8times.(5)The occurrence of cold air in different grades has a strong seasonality. The frequency of medium and strong cold air grades was the highest in summer,accounting for 30.1% and 57.9%respectively. In spring strong cold air was the highest,accounting for 40.1%,and the cold wave was the highest in winter,accounting for 38.9%.(6) The cold air in all grades has 8 to 10 ainterannual period that was not consistent,but the cold wave dramatically decreased obviously in 1979.
Based on the daily minimum temperature of 50 weather stations around the Tarim basin of Southern Xinjiang during 1971-2016,the temporal-spatial frequency distribution of the cold air process in single station and the whole area were analyzed by means of synthesis,linear propensity estimation,morlet wavelet,Mann-Kendall and Moving average and Cumulative anomaly according to"Cold Air Grate Standards"(GB/T20484-2006). The results showed that:(1) the cold air process which grade is medium and above was mostly distributed in the plateau,the mountainous area and the windy area. The cold air process of each grade in single station showed a linear decrease trend and not obvious in the most stations. The cold air and cold wave process decreased significantly in Southern Xinjiang which the decreasing rates were 0.19 times/10 a. However,the remaining grade has a little change.(2)The occurrence of cold air process was 103.2 times a year in the area,among them the weak and medium process occupied for 86.3 and 10.4 times,which amount to 83.6% and 10.1%respectively. The grade above strong cold air was totally 7.0 times,accounting for 6.8% of the total number.(3)The frequency percent of each cold air grade with 1 ～ 3 d was 87.4 ～ 95.4%,weak cold air with 1d duration and other process grade with 2 d duration has the highest frequency. The frequency with 3 days or above decreased significantly with the increase of duration.(4) The interdecadal frequency of different cold air process grades has little change. In 1970 s,the stronger,strong cold air and cold wave frequency was 2.8,2.4 and 2.9 times respectively. In 1980 s,the weak cold air reached 86.6 times. In the nearly 6 years(2011-2016) had the most moderate cold air,up to 10.8times.(5)The occurrence of cold air in different grades has a strong seasonality. The frequency of medium and strong cold air grades was the highest in summer,accounting for 30.1% and 57.9%respectively. In spring strong cold air was the highest,accounting for 40.1%,and the cold wave was the highest in winter,accounting for 38.9%.(6) The cold air in all grades has 8 to 10 ainterannual period that was not consistent,but the cold wave dramatically decreased obviously in 1979.
引文
[1]中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB/T20484-2006.冷空气等级标准[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[2]陶诗言.东亚冬季冷空气活动的研究[Z].中央气象局编,短期预报手册,1957.
[3]陈佑淑,仪清菊,牟惟丰.对冷空气标准的一些讨论[J].南京气象学院学报,1990(3):339-347.
[4]杨松,朱乾根.东亚地区冬季大气低频振荡与冷空气活动关系的初步研究[J].南京气象学院学报,1990(3):339-347.
[5]仇永康,李晓东,仇永炎.我国冷空气活动的特征及其与欧亚大陆积雪的关系[J].应用气象学报,1992(2):235-241.
[6]任金声,王秀文,王洁颖.冬半年冷空气过程中期预报业务系统[J].气象,1996(1):339-347.
[7]曹晓初,叶瑞珠,许爱华.江西省冷空气气候特征分析[J].江西气象科技,2001(4):21-23.
[8]纪忠萍,谷德军,梁健,等.近55年影响广州的强冷空气及其准双周变化[J].大气科学,2007(5):999-1010.
[9]刘向文,孙照勃,倪东鸿,等.澳洲冷空气活动的季节内和年际变化特征[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(1):24-31.
[10]岳艳霞,陈静,高祺,等.气候变暖背景下石家庄冷空气活动的气候特征[J].气象与环境学报,2009(4):36-42.
[11]王宗明,孙照渤,李忠贤,等.1949—2009年欧亚大陆强冷空气活动频次的变化特征[J].气象与减灾研究,2011(1):16-23.
[12]阎琦,田莉,李爽,等.辽宁区域性冷空气多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子[J].冰川冻土,2016(2):379-387.
[13]朱晨玉,黄菲,石运昊,等.中国近50年寒潮冷空气的时空特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2014(12):12-20.
[14]黄焕卿,韩雪.东亚冷空气的变化趋势[J].海洋预报,2014(5):69-75.
[15]周琳.我国冬半年冷空气活动特征及其与海温的关系[D].南京信息工程大学,2013.
[16]周琳,孙照渤.1961—2010年我国冷空气的活动特征[J].大气科学学报,2015(3):342-353.
[17]吴月照,祈黄雄.新疆南部土壤侵蚀及生态环境研究[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(2):13-17.
[18]秦艳,周跃志,师庆东.基于气温、降水变化的新疆南部气候变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(8):54-57.
[19]刘明哲,魏文寿.新疆南部近60a的气候变化及其对沙尘暴发生条件的影响[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(4):479—483.
[20]毛炜峄,白素琴,陈鹏翔.1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市降温过程频数及强度气候特征[J].气象,2016,42(11):1374-1386.
[21]毛炜峄,陈颖.1951-2015年乌鲁木齐市寒潮过程频数及强度气候特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):403-411.
[22]任朝霞,杨达源.西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势[J].地球科学与环境学报,2007,29(1):99-102.
[23]程正兴.子波分析算法与应用[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2003:20-76.
[24]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:24-60.
[25]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:63-72.
[26]黄嘉佑.气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1996,21(5):56-57.
[2]陶诗言.东亚冬季冷空气活动的研究[Z].中央气象局编,短期预报手册,1957.
[3]陈佑淑,仪清菊,牟惟丰.对冷空气标准的一些讨论[J].南京气象学院学报,1990(3):339-347.
[4]杨松,朱乾根.东亚地区冬季大气低频振荡与冷空气活动关系的初步研究[J].南京气象学院学报,1990(3):339-347.
[5]仇永康,李晓东,仇永炎.我国冷空气活动的特征及其与欧亚大陆积雪的关系[J].应用气象学报,1992(2):235-241.
[6]任金声,王秀文,王洁颖.冬半年冷空气过程中期预报业务系统[J].气象,1996(1):339-347.
[7]曹晓初,叶瑞珠,许爱华.江西省冷空气气候特征分析[J].江西气象科技,2001(4):21-23.
[8]纪忠萍,谷德军,梁健,等.近55年影响广州的强冷空气及其准双周变化[J].大气科学,2007(5):999-1010.
[9]刘向文,孙照勃,倪东鸿,等.澳洲冷空气活动的季节内和年际变化特征[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(1):24-31.
[10]岳艳霞,陈静,高祺,等.气候变暖背景下石家庄冷空气活动的气候特征[J].气象与环境学报,2009(4):36-42.
[11]王宗明,孙照渤,李忠贤,等.1949—2009年欧亚大陆强冷空气活动频次的变化特征[J].气象与减灾研究,2011(1):16-23.
[12]阎琦,田莉,李爽,等.辽宁区域性冷空气多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子[J].冰川冻土,2016(2):379-387.
[13]朱晨玉,黄菲,石运昊,等.中国近50年寒潮冷空气的时空特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2014(12):12-20.
[14]黄焕卿,韩雪.东亚冷空气的变化趋势[J].海洋预报,2014(5):69-75.
[15]周琳.我国冬半年冷空气活动特征及其与海温的关系[D].南京信息工程大学,2013.
[16]周琳,孙照渤.1961—2010年我国冷空气的活动特征[J].大气科学学报,2015(3):342-353.
[17]吴月照,祈黄雄.新疆南部土壤侵蚀及生态环境研究[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(2):13-17.
[18]秦艳,周跃志,师庆东.基于气温、降水变化的新疆南部气候变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(8):54-57.
[19]刘明哲,魏文寿.新疆南部近60a的气候变化及其对沙尘暴发生条件的影响[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(4):479—483.
[20]毛炜峄,白素琴,陈鹏翔.1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市降温过程频数及强度气候特征[J].气象,2016,42(11):1374-1386.
[21]毛炜峄,陈颖.1951-2015年乌鲁木齐市寒潮过程频数及强度气候特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):403-411.
[22]任朝霞,杨达源.西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势[J].地球科学与环境学报,2007,29(1):99-102.
[23]程正兴.子波分析算法与应用[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2003:20-76.
[24]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:24-60.
[25]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:63-72.
[26]黄嘉佑.气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1996,21(5):56-57.