供给侧改革背景下新疆棉花生产布局空间变化及影响因素分析
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摘要
棉花目标价格改革政策是新疆农业供给侧改革的重要实现方式,随着该政策的推进,棉花生产逐步由长江流域和黄河流域向新疆转移,同时,在新疆局部也呈现出棉花生产向优势区域集中的发展特征。由于棉花目标价格试点工作主要针对新疆,因此,文中使用空间计量模型对该政策执行后的新疆棉花生产布局空间变化及影响因素进行深入分析。结果显示:棉花的经济效益、非农就业机会是影响棉花生产布局的重要原因;棉花补贴政策、人均耕地面积、单位面积机械拥有量和农业劳动力数量对棉花生产规模有正向影响;县域间空间互动效应在棉花生产布局中发挥了显著作用。
The policy of the cotton target price reform is an important way to realize the agricultural supply side reform in Xinjiang. With the promotion of this policy,the cotton production is gradually transferred from the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River basin to Xinjiang. Meanwhile,in the part of Xinjiang,the development characteristics that the cotton production moving to the dominant region are also presented. Because the pilot work of the cotton target price is mainly aimed at Xinjiang,this paper uses the spatial measurement model to analyze the spatial change and the influencing factors of the cotton production layout in Xinjiang after the implementation of the policy. The results show that cotton economic benefits and non-agricultural employment opportunities are important factors affecting the layout of cotton production. The cotton subsidy policy,per capita arable land area,the amount of mechanical quantity per unit area and the number of agricultural labor force have a positive effect on the scale of cotton production,and the spatial interaction effect between counties plays a significant role in the distribution of cotton production.
The policy of the cotton target price reform is an important way to realize the agricultural supply side reform in Xinjiang. With the promotion of this policy,the cotton production is gradually transferred from the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River basin to Xinjiang. Meanwhile,in the part of Xinjiang,the development characteristics that the cotton production moving to the dominant region are also presented. Because the pilot work of the cotton target price is mainly aimed at Xinjiang,this paper uses the spatial measurement model to analyze the spatial change and the influencing factors of the cotton production layout in Xinjiang after the implementation of the policy. The results show that cotton economic benefits and non-agricultural employment opportunities are important factors affecting the layout of cotton production. The cotton subsidy policy,per capita arable land area,the amount of mechanical quantity per unit area and the number of agricultural labor force have a positive effect on the scale of cotton production,and the spatial interaction effect between counties plays a significant role in the distribution of cotton production.
引文
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[11]揭懋汕,雪燕,薛领.县域棉花生产格局时空演化及影响因素[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2015,17(6):46-53.
[2]陆文聪,梅燕.中国粮食生产区域格局变化及其成因实证分析-基于空间计量经济学模型[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2007,24(3):140-152.
[3]邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,王炬.中国粮食生产空间布局变迁的特征分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):117-123.
[4]朱启荣.中国棉花主产区生产布局分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(4):31-38.
[5]钟甫宁,刘顺飞.中国水稻生产布局变动分析[J].中国农村经济,2007(9):39-44.
[6]杨春,陆文聪.基于空间计量经济模型的县域粮食生产区域格局研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(5):24-29.
[7]朱启荣,田新建,张旭青.基于比较利益的中国棉花种植空间布局变化的成因分析-对湖北、山东和新疆三省(区)的实证分析[J].农业现代化研究,2004(5):340-343.
[8]喻晓玲,邓小丽.新疆南疆棉花与中国主产棉区比较优势分析[J].经济研究导刊,2008(13):158-159.
[9]钟甫宁,胡雪梅.中国棉花生产区域格局及影响因素研究[J].农业技术经济,2008(1):4-9.
[10]潘学标.基于GIS的中国县域棉花生产空间分布与变异研究[J].中国农业科学,2003,26(4):382-386.
[11]揭懋汕,雪燕,薛领.县域棉花生产格局时空演化及影响因素[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2015,17(6):46-53.