城镇化及房地产投资对中国碳排放的影响机制及效应研究
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摘要
以城镇化及房地产投资对碳排放的影响机理为研究基础,首先基于变形Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解方法对1997～2015年中国30个省份的碳排放变化进行因素分解,重点考察了城镇化和房地产投资对碳排放的影响,并采用空间面板数据模型从直接影响和空间溢出效应两方面进行实证检验。研究结果表明:①1997～2015年中国碳排放量一直保持增长趋势,房地产投资碳排放系数是最主要碳排放促减因素,城镇房地产投资强度、城镇化水平和地区总人口变化对碳排放具有促增作用,且效果逐年增大。②各省碳排放量在空间上存在显著差异,总体上呈现东高西低的分布特征。碳排放量较少的省区空间集聚程度有所增强,地区间差异在不断缩小。③城镇化水平对碳排放的直接影响显著为负,但其空间溢出效应显著为正;城镇房地产投资强度对碳排放的直接影响影响具有促增效应,其空间溢出效应并不显著;两者的交互作用具的直接效应和空间溢出效应显著为负;经济发展水平对本地区碳排放的直接效应和空间溢出效应均显著为正;政府投资对碳排放的直接影响显著为负,但空间溢出效应并不显著;产业结构对本地区的碳排放没有显著的影响,但是其空间溢出效应显著为负;对外开放程度对本地区的碳排放具有显著的促减作用,但是对相邻地区的碳排放具有促增效应;随着城镇化水平和经济发展水平的提高,碳排放水平分别呈现出显著的U型和倒U型曲线关系。
Urbanization and real estate investment are important influencing factors of carbon emission in a region. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically analyze and test the internal impact mechanism of urbanization and real estate investment on carbon emission. Combining the deformation of Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition, this article decomposes the carbon emission changes of 30 provinces in China(due to data limitation, the data of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet are not included in the study area) from 1997 to 2015.The spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in Chinese provinces are described by Moran's I index and LISA spatial agglomeration map. This article further uses the spatial panel data model to empirically test the effects of urbanization and real estate investment on carbon emission from both direct impact and spatial spillover effects. The results are as follow: First, from the time trend, China's carbon emission has maintained a growth trend from 1997 to 2015. From the perspective of the decomposition factors of carbon emission, the carbon emission coefficient of real estate investment is the main driving factor to curb carbon emissions, while the intensity of urban real estate investment, the level of urbanization and the change of total population in the region have positive effects on carbon emission, and the effects are increasing year by year. Second, from the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission, there are significant differences for the carbon emission in the provincial-level, and the distribution characteristics are generally expressed as higher carbon emission in the east and lower in the west. The spatial concentration of provinces with less carbon emission has increased, and the regional differences among them have been shrinking. Third, from the regression results of the spatial panel data model, the direct impact of urbanization on carbon emission is significantly negative, but the spatial spillover effect is significantly positive. The direct effect of the intensity of urban real estate investment on carbon emission is positive, but its spillover effect is not significant. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the interaction between urbanization and the intensity of urban real estate investment are significantly negative. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of economic development on carbon emission are significantly positive. The direct impact of government investment on carbon emission is significantly negative, but the spillover effect is not significant. Industrial structure has no significant direct effect on the carbon emission, but its spatial spillover effect is negatively negative. The degree of opening to the outside world has a significant negative direct effect on the carbon emission, but it has a positive effect on the carbon emission in the adjacent areas. With the improvement of the level of urbanization and economic development,there is a significant U-shaped and inverted U-shaped curve relationship between the two and carbon emission,respectively. This article further proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve regional carbon emission reduction from the perspective of urbanization and real estate policies.
Urbanization and real estate investment are important influencing factors of carbon emission in a region. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically analyze and test the internal impact mechanism of urbanization and real estate investment on carbon emission. Combining the deformation of Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition, this article decomposes the carbon emission changes of 30 provinces in China(due to data limitation, the data of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet are not included in the study area) from 1997 to 2015.The spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in Chinese provinces are described by Moran's I index and LISA spatial agglomeration map. This article further uses the spatial panel data model to empirically test the effects of urbanization and real estate investment on carbon emission from both direct impact and spatial spillover effects. The results are as follow: First, from the time trend, China's carbon emission has maintained a growth trend from 1997 to 2015. From the perspective of the decomposition factors of carbon emission, the carbon emission coefficient of real estate investment is the main driving factor to curb carbon emissions, while the intensity of urban real estate investment, the level of urbanization and the change of total population in the region have positive effects on carbon emission, and the effects are increasing year by year. Second, from the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission, there are significant differences for the carbon emission in the provincial-level, and the distribution characteristics are generally expressed as higher carbon emission in the east and lower in the west. The spatial concentration of provinces with less carbon emission has increased, and the regional differences among them have been shrinking. Third, from the regression results of the spatial panel data model, the direct impact of urbanization on carbon emission is significantly negative, but the spatial spillover effect is significantly positive. The direct effect of the intensity of urban real estate investment on carbon emission is positive, but its spillover effect is not significant. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the interaction between urbanization and the intensity of urban real estate investment are significantly negative. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of economic development on carbon emission are significantly positive. The direct impact of government investment on carbon emission is significantly negative, but the spillover effect is not significant. Industrial structure has no significant direct effect on the carbon emission, but its spatial spillover effect is negatively negative. The degree of opening to the outside world has a significant negative direct effect on the carbon emission, but it has a positive effect on the carbon emission in the adjacent areas. With the improvement of the level of urbanization and economic development,there is a significant U-shaped and inverted U-shaped curve relationship between the two and carbon emission,respectively. This article further proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve regional carbon emission reduction from the perspective of urbanization and real estate policies.
引文
[1]王钦池.城市规模、城市化率与碳排放关系研究:基于近半世纪161个国家的数据[J].西北人口, 2015, 36(3):1-5+12.[Wang Qinchi. City size, urbanization rate and carbon emissions:Based on empirical data of 161 countries in the past half century. Northwest Population, 2015, 36(3):1-5+12.]
[2]吴婵丹,陈昆仑.国外关于城市化与碳排放关系研究进展[J].城市问题,2014(6):22-27.[Wu Chandan, Chen Kunlun. Foreign literature concerned with the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions. Urban Problems, 2014(6):22-27.]
[3]Zha D L, Zhou D Q, Zhou P. Driving forces of residential CO2emissions in urban and rural China:An index decomposition analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(7):3378-3383.
[4]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2014(7):86-114.[Lu Ming, Feng Hao.Agglomeration and emission reduction:An empirical study on the influence of urban scale gap on industrial pollution intensity. The Journal of World Economy, 2014(7):86-114.]
[5]郭炳南,魏润卿,程贵孙.外商直接投资、城市化与中国CO2排放:来自时间序列和省际面板数据的经验证据[J].山西财经大学学报,2013, 35(8):12-20.[Guo Bingnan, Wei Runqing,Cheng Guisun. Foreign direct investment, urbanization and China's carbon dioxide emissions:Empirical evidence from the time series and provincial panel data. Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University, 2013, 35(8):12-20.]
[6]Clark T A. Metropolitan density, energy efficiency and carbon emissions:Multi-attribute tradeoffs and their policy implications[J]. Energy Policy, 2013(53):413-428
[7]Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Kaneko S et al. The moderating effects of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions:a latent class modeling approach[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015(90), Part A:302-317
[8]刘贤赵,高长春,张勇,等.中国省域碳强度空间依赖格局及其影响因素的空间异质性研究[J].地理科学,2018,38(5):681-690.[Liu Xianzhao, Gao Changchun, Zhang Yong et al. Spatial dependence pattern of carbon emission intensity in China’s provinces and spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 38(5):681-690.]
[9]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.[Lin Boqiang, Liu Xiying.China’s carbon dioxide emissions under the urbanization process:Influence factors and abatement policies. Economic Research Journal, 2010(8):66-78.]
[10]孙昌龙,靳诺,张小雷,等.城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异[J].地理科学,2013, 33(3):266-272.[Sun Changlong,Jin Nuo, Zhang Xiaolei et al. The impact of urbanization on the CO2emission in the various development stages. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013, 33(3):266-272.]
[11]曾德珩,王霞.不同国家城市化中期阶段与碳排放关系研究[J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2015, 21(1):46-50.[Zeng Deheng, Wang Xia. Comparative study of relationship between carbon emission and medium-term urbanization in different countries. Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition), 2015, 21(1):46-50.]
[12]肖周燕.中国城市化发展阶段与CO2排放的关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):139-145.[Xiao Zhouyan.Study on the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in China. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2011,21(12):139-145.]
[13]Zhang C, Y Lin. Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2emissions:A regional analysis in China[J].Energy Policy, 2012(49):488-498.
[14]Al-mulali U, Sab C N B, Fereidouni H G. Exploring the bi-directional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission[J]. Energy, 2012, 46(1):156-167
[15]Al-mulali U, Fereidouni H G, Y M Lee J et al. Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2emission in MENA countries[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013(23):107-112
[16]Sadorsky P. The effect of urbanization on CO2emissions in emerging economies[J]. Energy Economics, 2014(41):147-153.
[17]Wang Y, Chen L L, Kubotab J. The relationship between urbanization, energy use and carbon emissions:Evidence from a panel of Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112:1368-1374.
[18]郑蕾,唐志鹏,刘毅.中国投资引致碳排放与经济增长的空间特征及脱钩测度[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2330-2340.[Zheng Lei, Tang Zhipeng, Liu Yi. Spatial characteristics and decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth induced by Chinese investments. Resources Science, 2015, 37(12):2330-2340.]
[19]邵帅,张曦,赵兴荣.中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径:广义迪氏指数分级和动态情景分析[J].中国工业经济,2017(3):44-63.[Shao Shuai, Zhang Xi, Zhao Xingrong. Empirical decomposition and peaking pathway of carbon emissions of China's manufacturing sector:Generalized divisia index method and dynamic scenario analysis. China Industrial Economics,2017(3):44-63.]
[20]陈诗一,严法善,吴若沉.资本深化、生产率提高与中国二氧化碳排放变化——产业、区域、能源三维结构调整视角的因素分解分析[J].财贸经济,2010(12):111-119.[Chen Shiyi, Yan Fashan, Wu Ruochen. Capital deepening, productivity promotion and CO2emission in China. Finance&Trade Economic,2010(12):111-119.]
[21]彭昱.地方投资行为、经济发展水平与碳排放——基于中国省级面板数据分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2013(3):92-99.[Peng Yu. Investment behavior of local government, the level of economic development and carbon emissions:An empirical analysis based on Chinese provincial panel data. Comparative Economic&Social Systems, 2013(3):92-99.]
[22]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(1998-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China. China statistical yearbook(1998-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1998-2016.]
[23]国家统计局能源统计司.中国能源统计年鉴(1998-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2016.[Department of Energy Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics. China energy statistical yearbook(1998-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1998-2016.]
[24]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.新中国60年统计资料汇编(1998-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics. China compendium of statistics(1998-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1998-2016.]
[25]范建双,虞晓芬,周琳.南京市土地利用结构碳排放效率增长及其空间相关性[J].地理研究,2018,37(11):2177-2192.[Fan Jianshuang, Yu Xiaofen, Zhou Lin. Carbon emission efficiency growth of land use structure and its spatial correlation:A case study of Nanjing City. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(11):2177-2192.]
[26]James LeSage, R Kelly Pace. Introduction to spatial econometrics[M]. Boca Raton, US Florida:CRC Press Taylor&Francis Group, 2009.
(1)17种化石燃料包括原煤、洗精煤、其他洗煤、型煤、焦炭、焦炉煤气、其他煤气、原油、汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、液化石油气、炼厂干气、天然气、其他石油制品和其他焦化产品。
[2]吴婵丹,陈昆仑.国外关于城市化与碳排放关系研究进展[J].城市问题,2014(6):22-27.[Wu Chandan, Chen Kunlun. Foreign literature concerned with the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions. Urban Problems, 2014(6):22-27.]
[3]Zha D L, Zhou D Q, Zhou P. Driving forces of residential CO2emissions in urban and rural China:An index decomposition analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(7):3378-3383.
[4]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2014(7):86-114.[Lu Ming, Feng Hao.Agglomeration and emission reduction:An empirical study on the influence of urban scale gap on industrial pollution intensity. The Journal of World Economy, 2014(7):86-114.]
[5]郭炳南,魏润卿,程贵孙.外商直接投资、城市化与中国CO2排放:来自时间序列和省际面板数据的经验证据[J].山西财经大学学报,2013, 35(8):12-20.[Guo Bingnan, Wei Runqing,Cheng Guisun. Foreign direct investment, urbanization and China's carbon dioxide emissions:Empirical evidence from the time series and provincial panel data. Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University, 2013, 35(8):12-20.]
[6]Clark T A. Metropolitan density, energy efficiency and carbon emissions:Multi-attribute tradeoffs and their policy implications[J]. Energy Policy, 2013(53):413-428
[7]Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Kaneko S et al. The moderating effects of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions:a latent class modeling approach[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015(90), Part A:302-317
[8]刘贤赵,高长春,张勇,等.中国省域碳强度空间依赖格局及其影响因素的空间异质性研究[J].地理科学,2018,38(5):681-690.[Liu Xianzhao, Gao Changchun, Zhang Yong et al. Spatial dependence pattern of carbon emission intensity in China’s provinces and spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 38(5):681-690.]
[9]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.[Lin Boqiang, Liu Xiying.China’s carbon dioxide emissions under the urbanization process:Influence factors and abatement policies. Economic Research Journal, 2010(8):66-78.]
[10]孙昌龙,靳诺,张小雷,等.城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异[J].地理科学,2013, 33(3):266-272.[Sun Changlong,Jin Nuo, Zhang Xiaolei et al. The impact of urbanization on the CO2emission in the various development stages. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013, 33(3):266-272.]
[11]曾德珩,王霞.不同国家城市化中期阶段与碳排放关系研究[J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2015, 21(1):46-50.[Zeng Deheng, Wang Xia. Comparative study of relationship between carbon emission and medium-term urbanization in different countries. Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition), 2015, 21(1):46-50.]
[12]肖周燕.中国城市化发展阶段与CO2排放的关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):139-145.[Xiao Zhouyan.Study on the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in China. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2011,21(12):139-145.]
[13]Zhang C, Y Lin. Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2emissions:A regional analysis in China[J].Energy Policy, 2012(49):488-498.
[14]Al-mulali U, Sab C N B, Fereidouni H G. Exploring the bi-directional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission[J]. Energy, 2012, 46(1):156-167
[15]Al-mulali U, Fereidouni H G, Y M Lee J et al. Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2emission in MENA countries[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013(23):107-112
[16]Sadorsky P. The effect of urbanization on CO2emissions in emerging economies[J]. Energy Economics, 2014(41):147-153.
[17]Wang Y, Chen L L, Kubotab J. The relationship between urbanization, energy use and carbon emissions:Evidence from a panel of Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112:1368-1374.
[18]郑蕾,唐志鹏,刘毅.中国投资引致碳排放与经济增长的空间特征及脱钩测度[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2330-2340.[Zheng Lei, Tang Zhipeng, Liu Yi. Spatial characteristics and decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth induced by Chinese investments. Resources Science, 2015, 37(12):2330-2340.]
[19]邵帅,张曦,赵兴荣.中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径:广义迪氏指数分级和动态情景分析[J].中国工业经济,2017(3):44-63.[Shao Shuai, Zhang Xi, Zhao Xingrong. Empirical decomposition and peaking pathway of carbon emissions of China's manufacturing sector:Generalized divisia index method and dynamic scenario analysis. China Industrial Economics,2017(3):44-63.]
[20]陈诗一,严法善,吴若沉.资本深化、生产率提高与中国二氧化碳排放变化——产业、区域、能源三维结构调整视角的因素分解分析[J].财贸经济,2010(12):111-119.[Chen Shiyi, Yan Fashan, Wu Ruochen. Capital deepening, productivity promotion and CO2emission in China. Finance&Trade Economic,2010(12):111-119.]
[21]彭昱.地方投资行为、经济发展水平与碳排放——基于中国省级面板数据分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2013(3):92-99.[Peng Yu. Investment behavior of local government, the level of economic development and carbon emissions:An empirical analysis based on Chinese provincial panel data. Comparative Economic&Social Systems, 2013(3):92-99.]
[22]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(1998-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China. China statistical yearbook(1998-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1998-2016.]
[23]国家统计局能源统计司.中国能源统计年鉴(1998-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2016.[Department of Energy Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics. China energy statistical yearbook(1998-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1998-2016.]
[24]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.新中国60年统计资料汇编(1998-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics. China compendium of statistics(1998-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1998-2016.]
[25]范建双,虞晓芬,周琳.南京市土地利用结构碳排放效率增长及其空间相关性[J].地理研究,2018,37(11):2177-2192.[Fan Jianshuang, Yu Xiaofen, Zhou Lin. Carbon emission efficiency growth of land use structure and its spatial correlation:A case study of Nanjing City. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(11):2177-2192.]
[26]James LeSage, R Kelly Pace. Introduction to spatial econometrics[M]. Boca Raton, US Florida:CRC Press Taylor&Francis Group, 2009.
(1)17种化石燃料包括原煤、洗精煤、其他洗煤、型煤、焦炭、焦炉煤气、其他煤气、原油、汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、液化石油气、炼厂干气、天然气、其他石油制品和其他焦化产品。