中国经济空间转型与新时代全国经济东西向布局
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摘要
"形成陆海内外联动、东西双向互济的开放格局"是新时代中国经济空间转型的战略方向。在世界经济重心持续由西向东、向中国移动的全球趋势下,我国可能需要一个统一的、以东西向布局为主的国家宏观战略,这也是新时代下我国区域发展战略体系的一个新探讨方向。应用空间统计标准差椭圆方法分析和比较了"十一五"以来全国经济及三大战略区域经济空间发展态势,确定了我国全国经济的东西向开发主轴线。研究发现,"十一五"以来,特别是2010年以来,全国经济呈现出向内陆移动、东西向扩张、南北向收缩的空间发展特征,展示出有利于东西向布局的空间转型态势,长江经济带、丝绸之路经济带、海上丝绸之路经济带的空间发展均以东西向为主,共同作用于全国经济空间的东西向增长。建议新时代下以东西向为主统一国家经济空间布局,培育以连接上海、合肥、西安与乌鲁木齐的狭长经济带为主体的全国经济东西主轴线,这是全方位开放新格局中连接丝绸之路经济带和海上丝绸之路的最佳路径,其全国代表性、全球连接性的纵深连通作用有利于统一国家宏观战略格局、深化推进全国经济空间转型和欧亚大陆崛起。
The 19~(th)congress of the Chinese Communist Party outlines a new strategic direction of the spatial transformation of Chinse economy in New Era.With the trend that the global economic center is moving from west to east and to China,China may need a unified national strategy which focuses on the east-west orientation.This is also a new direction for Chinese regional development strategy in New Era.This paper analyzed China economic development from 2005 to 2015 using spatial statistical Standard Deviational Ellipse methods,and found that since the 11~(th)Five-Year Plan,especially after 2010,the spatial development of national economy has shown a trend of inward movement,east-west expansion and north-south contraction,which is conducive to the east-west layout of national economic development.Yangtze River economic belt has been playing the fulcrum role promoting the national development moving to the west.Maritime Silk Road economic belt in China is promoting the integration of coastal-inland development.The Silk Road Economic Belt is still impacted by the national economic core area.Considering the needs of all-round open for the global development strategy and cultivating the east-west orientation for the national spatial development planning,it is recommended to cultivate the main axis for national east-west axis,which connects Shanghai,Hefei,Xi'an and Urumqi.The national representation and the global connectivity of this main east-west axis could advance the transformation of national economic pattern and the rise of European-Asia Continent.
The 19~(th)congress of the Chinese Communist Party outlines a new strategic direction of the spatial transformation of Chinse economy in New Era.With the trend that the global economic center is moving from west to east and to China,China may need a unified national strategy which focuses on the east-west orientation.This is also a new direction for Chinese regional development strategy in New Era.This paper analyzed China economic development from 2005 to 2015 using spatial statistical Standard Deviational Ellipse methods,and found that since the 11~(th)Five-Year Plan,especially after 2010,the spatial development of national economy has shown a trend of inward movement,east-west expansion and north-south contraction,which is conducive to the east-west layout of national economic development.Yangtze River economic belt has been playing the fulcrum role promoting the national development moving to the west.Maritime Silk Road economic belt in China is promoting the integration of coastal-inland development.The Silk Road Economic Belt is still impacted by the national economic core area.Considering the needs of all-round open for the global development strategy and cultivating the east-west orientation for the national spatial development planning,it is recommended to cultivate the main axis for national east-west axis,which connects Shanghai,Hefei,Xi'an and Urumqi.The national representation and the global connectivity of this main east-west axis could advance the transformation of national economic pattern and the rise of European-Asia Continent.
引文
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[2]樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.
[3]范恒山.国家区域发展战略的实践与走向[J].区域经济评论,2017(1):5-10.
[4]孙久文.重塑中国经济地理的方向与途径研究[J].南京社会科学,2016(6):18-24.
[5]陈明星,陆大道,龚颖华.经济地理学视角下中国经济新常态的格局与类型划分[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):965-972.
[6]赵璐.中国经济格局时空演化趋势[J].城市发展研究,2013,(7):14-18.
[7]倪金星,杨剑,徐冬冬,等.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的中国经济空间格局[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,50(6):930-936.
[8]孙铁山,刘霄泉,李国平.中国经济空间格局演化与区域产业变迁——基于1952~2010年省区经济份额变动的实证分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):56-65.
[9]Fujita M.,Krugman P.R.,Venables A.J.The Spatial Economy:Cities,Regions,and International Trade[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1999.
[10]Fujita M.,Thisse J.F.Economics of Agglomeration:Cities,Industrial Location,and Globalization[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002.
[11]张玉新,李天籽.国际区域经济一体化背景下中国沿边城市经济空间分布与影响因素[J].管理世界,2014(10):172
[12]胡鞍钢,周邵杰,鲁钰锋,等.重塑中国经济地理:从1.0版到4.0版[J].经济地理,2015,35(12):1-10.
[13]http://sh.xinhuanet.com/2016-03/18/c_135200400.htm
[14]http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-02/04/content_5165309.htm
[15]Bachi R.New Methods of Geostatistical Analysis and Graphical Presentation[M].New York:Kluwer,1999.
[16]Gong J.Clarifying the standard deviational ellipse[J].Geographical Analysis,2002,34:155-167.
[17]赵璐.中国经济空间椭圆.社会物理学第5号——社会治理[M].北京:科学出版社,2014,144-164.
[18]Fujita M.Frontiers of the New Economic Geography[J].Papers in Regional Science,2005,84(3):377-405.
[19]杨洪焦,孙林岩,高杰.中国制造业聚集度的演进态势及其特征分析——基于1988~2005年的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(5):55-66.
[20]邱灵,方创琳.北京市生产性服务业空间集聚综合测度[J].地理研究,2013,32(1):99-110.
[21]齐元静,杨宇,金凤君.中国经济发展阶段及其时空格局演变特征[J].地理学报,2013,68(4):517-531.
[22]Krugman P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(1):483-499.
[23]赵璐,赵作权.基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(8):979-986.
[24]O'Loughlin J.,Witmer F.D.W.The localized geographies of violence in the North Caucasus of Russia,1999-2007[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2010,101(1):178-201.
[25]Krugman P.Increasing Returns and Economic Geography[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99:483-499.
[26]Chattejee S.,Carlino G.A.Aggregate metropolitan employment growth and the deconcentration of metropolitan employment[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2001,48:549-583.
[27]Gabaix X.Zipf's Law for cities:an explanation[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,114(3):739-767.
[28]http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-09/25/c_1112622619.htm
[29]http://news.xinhuanet.com/gangao/2015-06/08/c_127890670.htm
[30]http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2011-06/08/content_1879180.htm
[31]http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2016-04/15/content_5064434.htm
[32]Wertime D.It's Official:China is Becoming a New Innovation Powerhouse[OL].Foreign Policy,February 7,2014.