城镇新增住房需求、住房及土地供给的空间错位分析
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摘要
在人口城镇化视域下,基于2005-2015年住房需求、住房及土地供给相关数据,以我国31个省市区为研究对象,着眼于当前新增城镇人口所引致的刚性需求,运用重力模型和空间错位模型,探讨我国城镇新增住房需求、住房及土地供给水平空间错位问题。结果表明:三者之间存在空间分离现象,且随时间推移,住房与土地供给空间失配现象逐渐缓解,而住房需求与供给错位问题却逐步恶化;新增住房需求-供给空间错位指数总体上呈上升趋势,错位指数上升的地区主要集中在天津、上海等地,是改善错位问题的关键地区;针对新增住房供不应求的关键地区,深入探究其错位原因是否与土地供给有关,以期为合理优化空间布局、缓解我国住房市场供需失配问题提供决策参考。
Data of housing demand,housing and land supply for 2005-2015 are collected for analysis,where 31 provincial areas of China are taken as the research objects under the population urbanization.Considering the newly-increased urban population generating a rigid demand,we combine the gravity center model and spatial mismatch method to explore the spatial mismatch among newly-increased housing demand,housing and land supply in urban areas of each province.The results indicate that housing demand,housing and land supply centers all shifted westward,while housing demand center shifted southward and housing supply center shifted northward.Therefore,there is a spatial mismatch among them,and the mismatch of housing and land supply is on a decrease,while housing demand and supply is on an increase.The spatial mismatch degree of housing demand and supply shows an upward tendency,and the central mismatch areas are Tianjin,Shanghai,which are the keys for solving the issues of mismatch.The reasons of the spatial mismatch are different for different areas,so we should adopt the appropriate supply policy on a case-by-case basis.
Data of housing demand,housing and land supply for 2005-2015 are collected for analysis,where 31 provincial areas of China are taken as the research objects under the population urbanization.Considering the newly-increased urban population generating a rigid demand,we combine the gravity center model and spatial mismatch method to explore the spatial mismatch among newly-increased housing demand,housing and land supply in urban areas of each province.The results indicate that housing demand,housing and land supply centers all shifted westward,while housing demand center shifted southward and housing supply center shifted northward.Therefore,there is a spatial mismatch among them,and the mismatch of housing and land supply is on a decrease,while housing demand and supply is on an increase.The spatial mismatch degree of housing demand and supply shows an upward tendency,and the central mismatch areas are Tianjin,Shanghai,which are the keys for solving the issues of mismatch.The reasons of the spatial mismatch are different for different areas,so we should adopt the appropriate supply policy on a case-by-case basis.
引文
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[14]汪利娜.新型城镇化进程中住宅市场的多重特征与困境摆脱[J].改革,2013(4):36-47.
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[16]潘文轩.住房去库存中需求管理的局限性与供给改革的对策[J].经济纵横,2016(6):17-22.
[17]罗吉,黄亚平,赵丽元,等.城市低收入群体二元居住需求与住房供给研究——基于微观实证调查[J].城市规划,2015,39(3):86-93.
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[20]朱道林,徐思超.基于城市人口变化的住房需求与土地及住宅供给关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2013,27(11):45-51.
[21]李凌雁,翁钢民.我国旅游与文化产业融合发展水平测度及时空差异分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(6):94-99.
[22] HONG I,JUNG W S.Application of gravity model on the Korean urban bus network[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2016,462(15):48-55.
[23]李在军,管卫华,柯文前.中国区域消费与经济、人口重心演变的时间多尺度研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):7-14.
[24]孙铁山,刘霄泉.中国超大城市常住外来和常住户籍人口居住-就业的空间错位——基于北京、上海和广州的实证[J].人口与经济,2016(5):23-34.
[2]潘爱民,王鹤,陈湘洲.基于区域相关的中国城市住房市场泡沫测度研究[J].财贸研究,2014,25(2):41-48.
[3] MICHAL G.Multinomial logit model of housing demand in Poland[J].Real Estate Management and Valuation,2015,23(1):84-89.
[4] JOHN M K,LESLEY M M.The determinants of demand for single family housing in Alabama urbanized areas[J].International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis,2009,2(2):132-144.
[5] PIYUSH T,HIROSHI H.Demand for housing in Tokyo:A discrete choice analysis[J].Regional Studies,2004,38(1):149-176.
[6]陈斌开,徐帆,谭力.人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999~2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究[J].金融研究,2012(1):129-140.
[7] RICHARD K G,HYOJUNG L.Age,demographics,and the demand for housing,revisited[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2016,61(5):86-98.
[8]杨华磊,温兴春,何凌云.中国婴儿潮下的城镇住房需求[J].中国经济问题,2015(2):49-60.
[9]刘学良,吴璟,邓永恒.人口冲击、婚姻和住房市场[J].南开经济研究,2016(1):58-76.
[10]杨华磊,温兴春,何凌云.出生高峰、人口结构与住房市场[J].人口研究,2015,39(3):87-99.
[11]陈彦斌,陈小亮.人口老龄化对中国城镇住房需求的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(5):45-58.
[12]王方兵,吴瑞君,桂世勋.老龄化背景下国外老年人住房发展及经验对上海的启示[J].兰州学刊,2014(11):116-125.
[13]杨华磊,何凌云.人口迁移、城镇化与住房市场[J].中国软科学,2016(12):91-104.
[14]汪利娜.新型城镇化进程中住宅市场的多重特征与困境摆脱[J].改革,2013(4):36-47.
[15]刘洪玉,杨帆,徐跃进.基于2010年人口普查数据的中国城镇住房状况分析[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,28(6):138-147,158.
[16]潘文轩.住房去库存中需求管理的局限性与供给改革的对策[J].经济纵横,2016(6):17-22.
[17]罗吉,黄亚平,赵丽元,等.城市低收入群体二元居住需求与住房供给研究——基于微观实证调查[J].城市规划,2015,39(3):86-93.
[18]邹至庄,牛霖琳.中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给[J].金融研究,2010(1):1-11.
[19]易斌.住房需求抑制还是土地供给调节:房地产调控政策比较研究[J].财经研究,2015,41(2):66-75.
[20]朱道林,徐思超.基于城市人口变化的住房需求与土地及住宅供给关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2013,27(11):45-51.
[21]李凌雁,翁钢民.我国旅游与文化产业融合发展水平测度及时空差异分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(6):94-99.
[22] HONG I,JUNG W S.Application of gravity model on the Korean urban bus network[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2016,462(15):48-55.
[23]李在军,管卫华,柯文前.中国区域消费与经济、人口重心演变的时间多尺度研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):7-14.
[24]孙铁山,刘霄泉.中国超大城市常住外来和常住户籍人口居住-就业的空间错位——基于北京、上海和广州的实证[J].人口与经济,2016(5):23-34.