基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区道路交通节能减排情景预测
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摘要
为了解决道路交通带来的能源消耗、温室气体及大气污染物排放问题,采用情景分析法,以京津冀地区为例,应用长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型构建了京津冀地区道路交通部门的能源与环境排放模型,对不同情景下2015—2030年的能源消耗、CO_2及污染物的排放情况进行了预测分析.结果表明:京津冀地区各政策情景中,提高燃油经济性情景的节能效果明显,节能率为22.4%.高排放车的淘汰短期节能效果最佳,节能率为19.1%,但长期效果不明显.北京市新能源汽车推广情景的CO_2、NOx长期减排效果最佳,天津市、河北省提高燃料经济性情景的CO_2、CO、NOx、PM2.5减排效果最好.相对于基准情景,2030年综合情景下京津冀地区的节能率为37.1%,CO_2减排率可达到36.8%,其中对污染物CO、HC的减排效果最佳,减排率为45.7%、43.8%.
In order to solve problems of energy consumption,greenhouse gases and air pollutants emissions caused by road transport,an urban road transport model for energy consumption and emission was developed in this paper based on long range energy alternatives planning system( LEAP). And then the energy consumption reduction potential and the emissions reduction potential of CO_2 and air pollutants of different control strategies and policies using scenario analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2015-2030 were assessed. Results show that the advanced fuel economy scenario is the most effective measure to reducing energy demand,and it can save 22. 4% of energy consumption. The high-emission vehicle elimination can reduce energy consumption more effectively in short-term than in long-term,the ratio of saving energy is 19. 1%. Further intensifying efforts to green energy vehicle promotion scenario would have better effect on reduction of CO_2 and NOxemission in long-term in Beijing. Advanced fuel economy has a better effect on reduction of CO_2,CO,NOxand PM2. 5 emission in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing with BAU scenario,the Integrated Scenario saved 37. 1% of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei areas in2030,and the emissions of CO_2 decreased by 36. 8%. It had a better effect on reduction of CO and HC,and the ratio of emission reduction was 45. 7% and 43. 8% respectively.
In order to solve problems of energy consumption,greenhouse gases and air pollutants emissions caused by road transport,an urban road transport model for energy consumption and emission was developed in this paper based on long range energy alternatives planning system( LEAP). And then the energy consumption reduction potential and the emissions reduction potential of CO_2 and air pollutants of different control strategies and policies using scenario analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2015-2030 were assessed. Results show that the advanced fuel economy scenario is the most effective measure to reducing energy demand,and it can save 22. 4% of energy consumption. The high-emission vehicle elimination can reduce energy consumption more effectively in short-term than in long-term,the ratio of saving energy is 19. 1%. Further intensifying efforts to green energy vehicle promotion scenario would have better effect on reduction of CO_2 and NOxemission in long-term in Beijing. Advanced fuel economy has a better effect on reduction of CO_2,CO,NOxand PM2. 5 emission in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing with BAU scenario,the Integrated Scenario saved 37. 1% of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei areas in2030,and the emissions of CO_2 decreased by 36. 8%. It had a better effect on reduction of CO and HC,and the ratio of emission reduction was 45. 7% and 43. 8% respectively.
引文
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[11]张颖,王灿,王克,等.基于LEAP的中国电力行业CO2排放情景分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2007,47(3):365-368.ZHANG Y,WANG C,WANG K,et al.CO2emission scenario analysis for China's electricity sector based on LEAP software[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2007,47(3):365-368.(in Chinese)
[12]王克,王灿,吕学都,等.基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(12):1982-1986.WANG K,WANG C,LX D,et al.Abatement potential of CO2emissions from China's iron and steel industry based on LEAP[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2006,46(12):1982-1986.(in Chinese)
[13]迟春洁,于渤,张弛.基于LEAP模型的中国未来能源发展前景研究[J].技术经济与管理研究,2004(5):73-74.CHI C J,YU B,ZHANG C.Research on future energy development prospect in China based on LEAP model[J].Technoeconomics&Management Research,2004(5):73-74.(in Chinese)
[14]池莉.基于LEAP模型的北京市未来客运交通能源需求和污染物排放预测[D].北京:北京交通大学,2014.CHI L.The prediction of Beijing passenger traffic energy demand and pollutants emission in future based on LEAP model[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2014.(in Chinese)
[15]彭彬彬,杜慧滨,马寿峰,等.基于LEAP模型的道路机动车能耗及排放[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2014(5):654-657.PENG B B,DU H B,MA S F,et al.Efficiency and fuel consumption of electric-drive mechanical transmission[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Information&Management Engineering),2014(5):654-657.(in Chinese)
[16]罗强.低碳建设项目规划情景分析法研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2013.LUO Q.Study on scenario analysis method of low-carbon construction project planning[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2013.(in Chinese)
[17]马振新.谈如何提高汽车的燃料经济性[J].农机使用与维修,2015(4):59-60.MA Z X.How to improve the fuel economy of automobiles[J].Farm Machinery Using&Maintenance,2015(4):59-60.(in Chinese)
[18]张秀丽,吴丹,张世秋.北京市淘汰高污染排放车辆政策研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(2):297-304.ZHANG X L,WU D,ZHANG S Q.Analysis on the policy of phasing out high-emission vehicles in Beijing[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2013,49(2):297-304.(in Chinese)
[2]蔺宏良.我国机动车污染物排放现状及控制对策分析[J].西安文理学院学报(自然科学版),2008,11(3):86-89.LIN H L.On the current situation of motor vehicle exhaust emissions in China and its strategy analysis[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Arts&Science(Natural Science Edition),2008,11(3):86-89.(in Chinese)
[3]何立强.中国机动车温室效应污染物排放清单及其削减潜力研究[D].北京:中国环境科学研究院,2014.HE L Q.Emission inventory of the greenhouse pollutants from motor vehicles in China and its control potential analysis[D].Beijing:Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,2014.(in Chinese)
[4]HUO H,WANG M,JOHNSON L,et al.Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth,oil demand,and CO2emissions through 2050[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2008,42(4):646-658.
[5]杨升.我国道路交通环境税政策对居民健康影响研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2016.YANG S.The study on residents'health effect of China's road transport environmental tax[D].Beijing:China Agricultural University,2016.(in Chinese)
[6]AZAM M,OTHMAN J,BEGUM R A,et al.Energy consumption and emission projection for the road transport sector in Malaysia:an application of the LEAP model[J].Environment Development and Sustainability,2016,18(4):1027-1047.
[7]DHAKAL S.Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley,Nepal[J].Energy Policy,2003,31(14):1493-1507.
[8]YAN X,CROOKES R J.Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector[J].Energy Policy,2009,37(2):658-668.
[9]PENG B,DU H,MA S,et al.Urban passenger transport energy saving and emission reduction potential:a case study for Tianjin,China[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2015,102:4-16.
[10]黄成,陈长虹,王冰妍,等.城市交通出行方式对能源与环境的影响[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(11):163-166.HUANG C,CHEN C H,WANG B Y,et al.Urban travel modal split and its impact on energy and environment[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2005,22(11):163-166.(in Chinese)
[11]张颖,王灿,王克,等.基于LEAP的中国电力行业CO2排放情景分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2007,47(3):365-368.ZHANG Y,WANG C,WANG K,et al.CO2emission scenario analysis for China's electricity sector based on LEAP software[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2007,47(3):365-368.(in Chinese)
[12]王克,王灿,吕学都,等.基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(12):1982-1986.WANG K,WANG C,LX D,et al.Abatement potential of CO2emissions from China's iron and steel industry based on LEAP[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2006,46(12):1982-1986.(in Chinese)
[13]迟春洁,于渤,张弛.基于LEAP模型的中国未来能源发展前景研究[J].技术经济与管理研究,2004(5):73-74.CHI C J,YU B,ZHANG C.Research on future energy development prospect in China based on LEAP model[J].Technoeconomics&Management Research,2004(5):73-74.(in Chinese)
[14]池莉.基于LEAP模型的北京市未来客运交通能源需求和污染物排放预测[D].北京:北京交通大学,2014.CHI L.The prediction of Beijing passenger traffic energy demand and pollutants emission in future based on LEAP model[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2014.(in Chinese)
[15]彭彬彬,杜慧滨,马寿峰,等.基于LEAP模型的道路机动车能耗及排放[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2014(5):654-657.PENG B B,DU H B,MA S F,et al.Efficiency and fuel consumption of electric-drive mechanical transmission[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Information&Management Engineering),2014(5):654-657.(in Chinese)
[16]罗强.低碳建设项目规划情景分析法研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2013.LUO Q.Study on scenario analysis method of low-carbon construction project planning[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2013.(in Chinese)
[17]马振新.谈如何提高汽车的燃料经济性[J].农机使用与维修,2015(4):59-60.MA Z X.How to improve the fuel economy of automobiles[J].Farm Machinery Using&Maintenance,2015(4):59-60.(in Chinese)
[18]张秀丽,吴丹,张世秋.北京市淘汰高污染排放车辆政策研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(2):297-304.ZHANG X L,WU D,ZHANG S Q.Analysis on the policy of phasing out high-emission vehicles in Beijing[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2013,49(2):297-304.(in Chinese)