美国都市带房地产市场发展的经验与启示
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摘要
本文以美国为例,通过分析总结以纽约、芝加哥、洛杉矶为代表的三大都市带空间结构特征及住房市场发展特点,为中国房地产市场的区域发展趋势分析提供经验启示。基于大量一手数据和资料的分析,研究得出以下经验启示:在快速城镇化进程中,中国城市群特别是其中心地区对人口的吸引力将持续增加;大都市带核心城市对中心地区的辐射半径在110公里左右,对外围地区的辐射半径在240公里左右,大致对应于中国高铁半小时圈和高铁一小时圈,这是城市群中不同城市在确定自身发展定位时需要考虑的重要因素;大都市区域在空间结构上表现出明显的圈层结构特点,中心地区具有密切的通勤流,外围地区则承载了居住外溢需求或第二居所需求;大都市区域内部从核心城市到中心地区到外围地区房价梯度下降,住房自有率水平则梯度上升,城市群的核心城市是未来住房租赁市场发展的重点;都市带的产业分布特点是影响其房地产市场圈层结构特点的重要因素,促进都市带内部房地产市场的协调发展需考虑产业政策特别是产业区域布局的影响。
Taking the United States as an example, this paper analyzes and summarizes the spatial structure characteristics of the three major megalopolis represented by New York Megalopolis,Chicago Megalopolis and Los Angeles Megalopolis and the development characteristics of the housing market, and provides experience and enlightenment for China's future real estate development. Based on the analysis of a large amount of first-hand data and information, the study draws the following experience : In the process of rapid urbanization,the attraction of China ' s urban agglomerations,especially its central areas, will continue to increase;the metropolis will radiate from the core cities to the central areas. The radius is about 110 kilometers, and the radiation radius to the peripheral area is about 240 kilometers, which roughly corresponds to the half-hour circle of China's high-speed rail and the one-hour circle of high-speed rail. This is an important factor that different cities in the urban agglomeration need to consider when determining their own development orientation;The metropolitan area shows obvious characteristics of the circle structure in the spatial structure. The central area has a close commuter flow,while the outer area carries the demand for residential spillovers or the second residence; the metropolitan area from the core city to the central area to the periphery the gradient of housing prices in the region has declined, and the level of housing ownership has increased gradually. The core cities of urban agglomerations are the focus of future housing rental market development; the industrial distribution characteristics of urban belts are important factors affecting the characteristics of the real estate market, and promote urban belts. Coordinated development of the internal real estate market needs to consider industrial governance especially the impact of regional distribution industry.
Taking the United States as an example, this paper analyzes and summarizes the spatial structure characteristics of the three major megalopolis represented by New York Megalopolis,Chicago Megalopolis and Los Angeles Megalopolis and the development characteristics of the housing market, and provides experience and enlightenment for China's future real estate development. Based on the analysis of a large amount of first-hand data and information, the study draws the following experience : In the process of rapid urbanization,the attraction of China ' s urban agglomerations,especially its central areas, will continue to increase;the metropolis will radiate from the core cities to the central areas. The radius is about 110 kilometers, and the radiation radius to the peripheral area is about 240 kilometers, which roughly corresponds to the half-hour circle of China's high-speed rail and the one-hour circle of high-speed rail. This is an important factor that different cities in the urban agglomeration need to consider when determining their own development orientation;The metropolitan area shows obvious characteristics of the circle structure in the spatial structure. The central area has a close commuter flow,while the outer area carries the demand for residential spillovers or the second residence; the metropolitan area from the core city to the central area to the periphery the gradient of housing prices in the region has declined, and the level of housing ownership has increased gradually. The core cities of urban agglomerations are the focus of future housing rental market development; the industrial distribution characteristics of urban belts are important factors affecting the characteristics of the real estate market, and promote urban belts. Coordinated development of the internal real estate market needs to consider industrial governance especially the impact of regional distribution industry.
引文
(1)陈美玲:《城市群相关概念的研究探讨》,《城市发展研究》2011年第3期。
(2)姜玲、杨开忠:《日本都市圈经济区划及对中国的启示》,《东南亚纵横》2007年第2期。
(3)秦尊文:《美国城市群考察及对中国的启示》,《湖北社会科学》2008年第12期。
(4)任荣荣:《住房市场区域差异的影响因素与影响路径》,《中国投资》2016年第8期。
(5)任荣荣:《日本经验对我国住房市场区域发展趋势的启示》,《中国投资》2017年第1期。
(6)任荣荣:《都市圈住房市场发展特点:来自日本的经验与启示》,《宏观经济研究》2017年第5期。
(7)任荣荣、杨阳:《关注住房市场的区域互动》,《中国投资》2017年第11期。
(8)史育龙、周一星:《关于大都市带(都市连绵区)研究的论争及近今进展述评》,《国外城市规划》1997年第2期。
(9)吴雪明:《世界城市的空间形态和人口分布——伦敦、巴黎、纽约、东京的比较及对上海的模拟》,《世界经济研究》2003年第7期。
(10)姚晓东、王刚:《美国城市群的发展经验及借鉴》,《天津经济》2013年第12期。
(11)Gottmann,J.,Megalopolis:The Urbanized Northeastern Seaboard Of The United States.New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1961.
(1)按照美国人口普查局的统计,美国1920年城镇化率就超过50%,1950年城镇化率为64%,1970年城镇化率为73.6%,之后结束快速城镇化进程。
(2)姜玲、杨开忠:《日本都市圈经济区划及对中国的启示》,《东南亚纵横》2007年第2期。
(3)秦尊文:《美国城市群考察及对中国的启示》,《湖北社会科学》2008年第12期。
(4)任荣荣:《住房市场区域差异的影响因素与影响路径》,《中国投资》2016年第8期。
(5)任荣荣:《日本经验对我国住房市场区域发展趋势的启示》,《中国投资》2017年第1期。
(6)任荣荣:《都市圈住房市场发展特点:来自日本的经验与启示》,《宏观经济研究》2017年第5期。
(7)任荣荣、杨阳:《关注住房市场的区域互动》,《中国投资》2017年第11期。
(8)史育龙、周一星:《关于大都市带(都市连绵区)研究的论争及近今进展述评》,《国外城市规划》1997年第2期。
(9)吴雪明:《世界城市的空间形态和人口分布——伦敦、巴黎、纽约、东京的比较及对上海的模拟》,《世界经济研究》2003年第7期。
(10)姚晓东、王刚:《美国城市群的发展经验及借鉴》,《天津经济》2013年第12期。
(11)Gottmann,J.,Megalopolis:The Urbanized Northeastern Seaboard Of The United States.New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1961.
(1)按照美国人口普查局的统计,美国1920年城镇化率就超过50%,1950年城镇化率为64%,1970年城镇化率为73.6%,之后结束快速城镇化进程。