多源测试性综合评估数据等效折合模型与方法研究
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摘要
由于用于开展测试性综合评估的先验信息形式多样,使得Bayes框架下能够处理的成败型数据不一致。为了解决这一问题,以测试性评估中专家数据、摸底试验数据、增长试验数据、可更换单元数据和虚拟试验数据这5种常见的先验信息为研究对象,在Bayes理论框架下分别研究提出相应的等效方法,实现了各类数据向成败型数据的折合。案例应用表明:所提方法合理有效,适用范围广,间接扩大了可用于测试性评估的数据样本量。
The form of prior data for testability integrated evaluation is too multiply to match with the binomial data which is processed under the framework of Bayes theory. For this issue,five kinds of prior data,including expert data,preexposure test data,growth test data,replaceable unit data and virtual test data,are studied. Furthermore,five corresponding equivalent methods which transform the different types of data into the system-level binomial data are proposed based on Bayes theory. The proposed methods are validated via applied examples. Results show that the proposed methods have wide applicability,and also enlarge the amount of data used for testability evaluation indirectly.
The form of prior data for testability integrated evaluation is too multiply to match with the binomial data which is processed under the framework of Bayes theory. For this issue,five kinds of prior data,including expert data,preexposure test data,growth test data,replaceable unit data and virtual test data,are studied. Furthermore,five corresponding equivalent methods which transform the different types of data into the system-level binomial data are proposed based on Bayes theory. The proposed methods are validated via applied examples. Results show that the proposed methods have wide applicability,and also enlarge the amount of data used for testability evaluation indirectly.
引文
[1]MIL-STD-2165A Military standard testability program for systems and equipments[S].Washington DC:Department of Defense,1993.
[2]GJB2547—95装备测试性大纲[S].北京:中国航空工业总公司,1995.GJB2547—95 Testability program for material[S].Beijing:Aviation Industry of China,1995.(in Chinese)
[3]MIL-STD-471A Maintainability verification/demonstration/evaluation[S].Washington DC:Department of Defense,1973.
[4]邹国晨,赵澄谋,邱衡.武器装备采办管理[M]北京:国防工业出版社,2003.ZOU Guo-chen,ZHAO Cheng-mou,QIU Heng.Defense acquisition management[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[5]石君友,纪超,李海伟.测试性验证技术与应用现状分析[J].测控技术,2012,31(5):29-32.SHI Jun-you,JI Chao,LI Hai-wei.Analysis of testability verification technology and application status[J].Measurement&Control Technology,2012,31(5):29-32.(in Chinese)
[6]李天梅.装备测试性验证试验优化设计与综合评估方法研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2010.LI Tian-mei.Research on optimization design and integrated evaluation of testability verification test for equipments[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2010.(in Chinese)
[7]常春贺,杨江平,曹鹏举.基于研制信息的测试性验证试验方案研究[J].航空学报,2012,33(11):2057-2064.CHANG Chun-he,YANG Jiang-ping,CAO Peng-ju.Study on the scheme of testability demonstration test based on development information[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Scinica,2012,33(11):2057-2064.(in Chinese)
[8]徐萍,刘松林,李勇.测试性试验概念及模型研究[J].计算机测量与控制,2006,14(9):1149-1152.XU Ping,LIU Song-lin,LI Yong.Reaserch on concept and model of testability test[J].Computer Measurment&Control,2006,14(9):1149-1152.(in Chinese)
[9]Mart H F,Waller R A.The basis of Bayesian reliability estimation from attribute test data[R].Los Alamos,US:Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory,1976.
[10]王志平,孙新立.武器系统可靠性评估中的信息折合计算[J].导弹试验技术,2003,12(9):50-53.WANG Zhi-ping,SUN Xin-li.Information calculation of reliability evaluation in weapon system[J].Missile Test Technology,2003,12(9):50-53.(in Chinese)
[11]肖钢.基于折合信息的固体火箭发动机可靠性综合评估[J].西安交通大学学报,1999,33(7):33-36.XIAO Gang.Reliability assessment of solid rocket engine based on converted information[J].Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University,1999,33(7):33-36.(in Chinese)
[12]张西山,黄考利,闫鹏程,等.小子样复杂装备系统测试性评估中的验前参数值确定方法[J].航空动力学报,2014,29(8):1968-1973.ZHANG Xi-shan,HUANG Kao-li,YAN Peng-cheng,et al.Method of confirming prior parameters value during complexity equipment system testability evaluation with small sample[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2014,29(8):1968-1973.(in Chinese)
[13]Savchuk V P,Mart H F.Bayes reliability estimation using multiple source of prior information:binomial sampling[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1994,43(1):138-144.
[14]王振邦.成败型系统可靠性综合评定的H-熵法[J].系统工程与电子技术,1989,119(8):66-72.WANG Zhen-bang.H-entropy method for system reliability synthetic assessment of pass/fail unit[J].System Engineering&Electronic Technology,1989,119(8):66-71.(in Chinese)
[15]江妙富.装备可靠性维修性保障性要求总体方案技术研究[D].北京:北京航空航天大学,2004.JIANG Miao-fu.Research on overall scheme of equipment reliability maintainability[D].Beijing:Beihang University,2004.(in Chinese)
[16]徐林生,王执铨,戴跃伟.评审专家可信度评价模型及应用[J].南京理工大学学报,2010,34(1):30-34.XU Lin-sheng,WANG Zhi-quan,DAI Yue-wei.Expert's credibility model and evaluation method[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2010,34(1):30-34.(in Chinese)
[17]刘琦,冯静,周经纶.评审专家可信度评价模型及应用[J].中国空间科学技术,2004,6(3):68-71.LIU Qi,FENG Jing,ZHOU Jing-lun.The fusion method for prior distribution based on expert's information[J].Chinese Space Science and Technology,2004,6(3):68-71.(in Chinese)
[18]田仲,石君友.系统测试性设计分析与验证[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2003.TIAN Zhong,SHI Jun-you.System testability design analysis and demonstration[M].Beijing:Beihang University Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[19]汤巍,景博,黄以锋.小子样变总体下的Bayes测试性验证方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2014,36(12):2566-2569.TANG Wei,JING Bo,HUANG Yi-feng.Testability verification method based on Bayes theory under small sample and varying population circumstance[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2014,36(12):2566-2569.(in Chinese)
[20]刘晗.基于Bayes理论的小子样可靠性评定方法研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2006.LIU Han.Research on methods of reliability assessment with small sample test on the basis of Bayes theory[D].Shangsha:National University of Defense Technology,2006.(in Chinese)
[21]田国梁.二项分布的可靠性增长模型[J].宇航学报,1992,13(1):55-61.TIAN Guo-liang.Reliability growth models for binomal distribution[J].Journal of Astronautics,1992,13(1):55-61.(in Chinese)
[22]梅文化.可靠性增长试验[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003.MEI Wen-hua.Reliability growth test[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[23]冯静,周经纶,孙权.Bayes分析中多源验前信息融合的MLII法[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(6):142-145.FENG Jing,ZHOU Jing-lun,SUN Quan.Fusion of information of multiple source based on ML-Ⅱtheory in Bayesian analysis[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2006,36(6):142-145.(in Chinese)
[24]欧贵兵,刘清国.概率统计及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.OU Gui-bing,LIU Qing-guo.An introduction to probability theory and its applications[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[25]Raffaela C,Maurizio G.A reliability-growth model in a Bayes-decision framework[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1996,45(3):505-510.
[26]孙有朝,施军.相同成败型单元组成系统可靠性信息熵法评定[J].机械工程学报,1999,35(6):25-28.SUN You-zhao,SHI Jun.Reliability assessment of the entropy method for the systems consisting of identical success-failure model units[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,1999,35(6):25-28.(in Chinese)
[27]赵勇,刘建新,牛青坡.先验信息可信度在成败型试验数据中的应用[J].电子设计工程,2014,22(5):49-51.ZHAO Yong,LIU Jian-xin,NIU Qing-po.Application of credibility of prior information in binomial distribution test[J].Electronic Design Engineering,2014,22(5):49-51.(in Chinese)
[2]GJB2547—95装备测试性大纲[S].北京:中国航空工业总公司,1995.GJB2547—95 Testability program for material[S].Beijing:Aviation Industry of China,1995.(in Chinese)
[3]MIL-STD-471A Maintainability verification/demonstration/evaluation[S].Washington DC:Department of Defense,1973.
[4]邹国晨,赵澄谋,邱衡.武器装备采办管理[M]北京:国防工业出版社,2003.ZOU Guo-chen,ZHAO Cheng-mou,QIU Heng.Defense acquisition management[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[5]石君友,纪超,李海伟.测试性验证技术与应用现状分析[J].测控技术,2012,31(5):29-32.SHI Jun-you,JI Chao,LI Hai-wei.Analysis of testability verification technology and application status[J].Measurement&Control Technology,2012,31(5):29-32.(in Chinese)
[6]李天梅.装备测试性验证试验优化设计与综合评估方法研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2010.LI Tian-mei.Research on optimization design and integrated evaluation of testability verification test for equipments[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2010.(in Chinese)
[7]常春贺,杨江平,曹鹏举.基于研制信息的测试性验证试验方案研究[J].航空学报,2012,33(11):2057-2064.CHANG Chun-he,YANG Jiang-ping,CAO Peng-ju.Study on the scheme of testability demonstration test based on development information[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Scinica,2012,33(11):2057-2064.(in Chinese)
[8]徐萍,刘松林,李勇.测试性试验概念及模型研究[J].计算机测量与控制,2006,14(9):1149-1152.XU Ping,LIU Song-lin,LI Yong.Reaserch on concept and model of testability test[J].Computer Measurment&Control,2006,14(9):1149-1152.(in Chinese)
[9]Mart H F,Waller R A.The basis of Bayesian reliability estimation from attribute test data[R].Los Alamos,US:Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory,1976.
[10]王志平,孙新立.武器系统可靠性评估中的信息折合计算[J].导弹试验技术,2003,12(9):50-53.WANG Zhi-ping,SUN Xin-li.Information calculation of reliability evaluation in weapon system[J].Missile Test Technology,2003,12(9):50-53.(in Chinese)
[11]肖钢.基于折合信息的固体火箭发动机可靠性综合评估[J].西安交通大学学报,1999,33(7):33-36.XIAO Gang.Reliability assessment of solid rocket engine based on converted information[J].Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University,1999,33(7):33-36.(in Chinese)
[12]张西山,黄考利,闫鹏程,等.小子样复杂装备系统测试性评估中的验前参数值确定方法[J].航空动力学报,2014,29(8):1968-1973.ZHANG Xi-shan,HUANG Kao-li,YAN Peng-cheng,et al.Method of confirming prior parameters value during complexity equipment system testability evaluation with small sample[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2014,29(8):1968-1973.(in Chinese)
[13]Savchuk V P,Mart H F.Bayes reliability estimation using multiple source of prior information:binomial sampling[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1994,43(1):138-144.
[14]王振邦.成败型系统可靠性综合评定的H-熵法[J].系统工程与电子技术,1989,119(8):66-72.WANG Zhen-bang.H-entropy method for system reliability synthetic assessment of pass/fail unit[J].System Engineering&Electronic Technology,1989,119(8):66-71.(in Chinese)
[15]江妙富.装备可靠性维修性保障性要求总体方案技术研究[D].北京:北京航空航天大学,2004.JIANG Miao-fu.Research on overall scheme of equipment reliability maintainability[D].Beijing:Beihang University,2004.(in Chinese)
[16]徐林生,王执铨,戴跃伟.评审专家可信度评价模型及应用[J].南京理工大学学报,2010,34(1):30-34.XU Lin-sheng,WANG Zhi-quan,DAI Yue-wei.Expert's credibility model and evaluation method[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2010,34(1):30-34.(in Chinese)
[17]刘琦,冯静,周经纶.评审专家可信度评价模型及应用[J].中国空间科学技术,2004,6(3):68-71.LIU Qi,FENG Jing,ZHOU Jing-lun.The fusion method for prior distribution based on expert's information[J].Chinese Space Science and Technology,2004,6(3):68-71.(in Chinese)
[18]田仲,石君友.系统测试性设计分析与验证[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2003.TIAN Zhong,SHI Jun-you.System testability design analysis and demonstration[M].Beijing:Beihang University Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[19]汤巍,景博,黄以锋.小子样变总体下的Bayes测试性验证方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2014,36(12):2566-2569.TANG Wei,JING Bo,HUANG Yi-feng.Testability verification method based on Bayes theory under small sample and varying population circumstance[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2014,36(12):2566-2569.(in Chinese)
[20]刘晗.基于Bayes理论的小子样可靠性评定方法研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2006.LIU Han.Research on methods of reliability assessment with small sample test on the basis of Bayes theory[D].Shangsha:National University of Defense Technology,2006.(in Chinese)
[21]田国梁.二项分布的可靠性增长模型[J].宇航学报,1992,13(1):55-61.TIAN Guo-liang.Reliability growth models for binomal distribution[J].Journal of Astronautics,1992,13(1):55-61.(in Chinese)
[22]梅文化.可靠性增长试验[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003.MEI Wen-hua.Reliability growth test[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[23]冯静,周经纶,孙权.Bayes分析中多源验前信息融合的MLII法[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(6):142-145.FENG Jing,ZHOU Jing-lun,SUN Quan.Fusion of information of multiple source based on ML-Ⅱtheory in Bayesian analysis[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2006,36(6):142-145.(in Chinese)
[24]欧贵兵,刘清国.概率统计及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.OU Gui-bing,LIU Qing-guo.An introduction to probability theory and its applications[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[25]Raffaela C,Maurizio G.A reliability-growth model in a Bayes-decision framework[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1996,45(3):505-510.
[26]孙有朝,施军.相同成败型单元组成系统可靠性信息熵法评定[J].机械工程学报,1999,35(6):25-28.SUN You-zhao,SHI Jun.Reliability assessment of the entropy method for the systems consisting of identical success-failure model units[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,1999,35(6):25-28.(in Chinese)
[27]赵勇,刘建新,牛青坡.先验信息可信度在成败型试验数据中的应用[J].电子设计工程,2014,22(5):49-51.ZHAO Yong,LIU Jian-xin,NIU Qing-po.Application of credibility of prior information in binomial distribution test[J].Electronic Design Engineering,2014,22(5):49-51.(in Chinese)