基于多目标评价及Topsis方法的节水农业综合效益评价——以黑龙江和平灌区为例
|
摘要
综合考虑节水农业的特点及其可能对地区社会、经济和生态环境多方面的影响,按照指标筛选、降维、综合效益评价的思路提出了基于多目标评价和基于Topsis方法的节水农业综合效益评价方法。以黑龙江和平灌区近5年的节水改造、灌溉用水、作物种植、气象等资料,分析了节水农业综合效益评价的影响因素,选取了社会、经济和环境3个二级指标和22个三级指标,建立了节水农业综合效益评价指标体系。采用主成分分析法对指标进行降维,提高了评价指标体系的实用性和科学性;运用Topsis法对和平灌区进行节水农业综合效益评价,得到各年份的综合评分及其变化规律,从影响综合评分的主要因素出发分析了原因。结果表明,综合效益最高的是2016年,最低的是2012年。和平灌区节水农业综合评分随时间上升,并且逐渐趋于平稳。
Considering the characteristics of water-saving agriculture and its possible impacts on the social, economic and ecological environment in the region, a comprehensive benefit evaluation method for water-saving agriculture based on the multi-objective evaluation and the Topsis method is put forward in the light of index selection, dimension reduction and comprehensive benefit evaluation. Based on the data of water-saving transformation, irrigation water, crop planting and meteorology in the area of Heilongjiang peaceful irrigation area, the influence factors of the comprehensive benefit evaluation of water-saving agriculture were analyzed, and the social, economic and ecological three-level indicators and the 22 third-level indicators were selected. And a large-scale water-saving agriculture comprehensive benefit evaluation index system is established. The main component analysis method is adopted to measure the index. To reduce the dimension, the practicability and the scientificity of the evaluation index system are improved; the comprehensive benefit evaluation of water-saving agriculture in the peaceful irrigation area is carried out by using the Topsis method, and the comprehensive score and the changing law of each year are obtained, and the reasons are analyzed from the main factors that influence the comprehensive scoring. The results show that the most comprehensive benefit is 2016 and the lowest is in 2013. The comprehensive score of water-saving agriculture in the peaceful irrigation
Considering the characteristics of water-saving agriculture and its possible impacts on the social, economic and ecological environment in the region, a comprehensive benefit evaluation method for water-saving agriculture based on the multi-objective evaluation and the Topsis method is put forward in the light of index selection, dimension reduction and comprehensive benefit evaluation. Based on the data of water-saving transformation, irrigation water, crop planting and meteorology in the area of Heilongjiang peaceful irrigation area, the influence factors of the comprehensive benefit evaluation of water-saving agriculture were analyzed, and the social, economic and ecological three-level indicators and the 22 third-level indicators were selected. And a large-scale water-saving agriculture comprehensive benefit evaluation index system is established. The main component analysis method is adopted to measure the index. To reduce the dimension, the practicability and the scientificity of the evaluation index system are improved; the comprehensive benefit evaluation of water-saving agriculture in the peaceful irrigation area is carried out by using the Topsis method, and the comprehensive score and the changing law of each year are obtained, and the reasons are analyzed from the main factors that influence the comprehensive scoring. The results show that the most comprehensive benefit is 2016 and the lowest is in 2013. The comprehensive score of water-saving agriculture in the peaceful irrigation
引文
[1] 谭芳,崔远来,王建章.基于主成分分析法的漳河灌区运行管理水平综合评价[J].中国水利,2009(13):41-43.
[2] 卢文峰.农业节水效益评价指标的研究与应用[D]. 武汉:长江科学院,2015.
[3] 田浪,刘永强,王珍,等.基于物元可拓模型的灌区水资源综合效益评价[J].排灌工程机械学报,2016,34(4):351-356.
[4] 苏晟霖.基于AHP法的灌区综合效益影响评价[J].黑龙江水利,2017,3(12):47-49.
[5] 庆安县统计年鉴[Z]. 2016.
[6] 呼兰河灌区续建配套及节水改造规划报告[R].
[7] 邰淑彩,孙韫玉,何娟娟.应用数理统计[M].武汉:武汉大学出版,2005,248-256.
[8] 周华,杜历,周伟国,等.宁夏引黄灌区节水农业综合效应评价[J].人民黄河,2005,27(4):19-21.
[9] 何淑媛,方国华.节水农业综合效益评价指标体系与评估方法研究[J].水利经济, 2008,26(3):85-89.
[10] 王晓玮,邵景力,崔亚莉,等.基于DPSIR和主成分分析的阜康市水资源承载力评价[J].南水北调与水利科技.2017,15(6);37-41.
[11] 朱珠,张琳,叶晓雯,等.基于TOPSIS方法的土地利用综合效益评价[J].经济地理,2012,32(10):139-144.
[12] 宋彦蓉,张宝元.基于地区现代化评价的客观赋权法比较[J].统计与决策,2015(11):82-86.
[13] 王念秦,蒲凯超,李仁伟.基于变异系数法的临潼区地质环境承载力综合评价[J].地下水.2018,2(3):77-80.
[14] 樊浩,刘冠男,朱林,等.基于变异系数与Topsis的信息作战行动方案优选方法研究[J].舰船电子工程.2013,33(3);26-28.
[15] Tang Q Y, Zhang C X. Data Processing System (DPS) software with experimental design, statistical analysis and data mining developed for use in entomological research[J]. Insect Science, 2013, 20(2): 254-260.
[16] 薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M]. 北京:电子工业出版社,2013,262-279.
[17] 洪惠坤,廖和平,魏朝富,等.基于改进TOPSIS方法的三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统健康评价[J].生态学报,2015,35(24):8 016-8 027.
[18] 崔宁博,张振平,楼豫红,等.基于TOPSIS的区域农业节水发展水平综合评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报.2016,24(10):978-994.
[19] Athanasios Kampas,Athanasios Petsakos,Stelios Rozakis. Price induced irrigation water saving:Unraveling conflicts and synergies between European agricultural and water policies for a Greek Water District[J].Agricultural Systems,2012,113:28-38.
[20] Alvarez J F O,de Juan Valero J A,Martín-Benito J M T,et al.MOPECO:An economic optimization model for irrigation water management[J].Irrigation Science,2004,23(2):61-75.
[21] 刘军,朱美玲.农业用水效率评价指标体系研究[J].节水灌溉,2013(5):61-63.
[22] 乐志华,邵东国,李浩鑫,等.漳河灌区节水改造综合效益评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(12):11-14.
[23] 信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.
[24] 雷勋平,Robin Qiu,刘勇.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(13):243-253.
[25] 李灿,张凤荣,朱泰峰,等.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用绩效评价及关联分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(5):217-227.
[26] 崔和瑞,梁丽华,王立红.基于熵权TOPSIS分析的配电网可靠性评估指标体系[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(13):172-175.
[27] 赵丹,刘东,武秋晨,. 基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的区域农业水资源系统恢复力评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2014(7):52-56.
[28] 梁薇,陆春芽. 优势关系下赋权法和TOPSIS的膜下滴灌模式评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2013(5):70-73.
[29] 方崇,苏超,黄伟军. 基于信息熵大型灌区农业旱情的TOPSIS综合评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2011(5):74-76.
[2] 卢文峰.农业节水效益评价指标的研究与应用[D]. 武汉:长江科学院,2015.
[3] 田浪,刘永强,王珍,等.基于物元可拓模型的灌区水资源综合效益评价[J].排灌工程机械学报,2016,34(4):351-356.
[4] 苏晟霖.基于AHP法的灌区综合效益影响评价[J].黑龙江水利,2017,3(12):47-49.
[5] 庆安县统计年鉴[Z]. 2016.
[6] 呼兰河灌区续建配套及节水改造规划报告[R].
[7] 邰淑彩,孙韫玉,何娟娟.应用数理统计[M].武汉:武汉大学出版,2005,248-256.
[8] 周华,杜历,周伟国,等.宁夏引黄灌区节水农业综合效应评价[J].人民黄河,2005,27(4):19-21.
[9] 何淑媛,方国华.节水农业综合效益评价指标体系与评估方法研究[J].水利经济, 2008,26(3):85-89.
[10] 王晓玮,邵景力,崔亚莉,等.基于DPSIR和主成分分析的阜康市水资源承载力评价[J].南水北调与水利科技.2017,15(6);37-41.
[11] 朱珠,张琳,叶晓雯,等.基于TOPSIS方法的土地利用综合效益评价[J].经济地理,2012,32(10):139-144.
[12] 宋彦蓉,张宝元.基于地区现代化评价的客观赋权法比较[J].统计与决策,2015(11):82-86.
[13] 王念秦,蒲凯超,李仁伟.基于变异系数法的临潼区地质环境承载力综合评价[J].地下水.2018,2(3):77-80.
[14] 樊浩,刘冠男,朱林,等.基于变异系数与Topsis的信息作战行动方案优选方法研究[J].舰船电子工程.2013,33(3);26-28.
[15] Tang Q Y, Zhang C X. Data Processing System (DPS) software with experimental design, statistical analysis and data mining developed for use in entomological research[J]. Insect Science, 2013, 20(2): 254-260.
[16] 薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M]. 北京:电子工业出版社,2013,262-279.
[17] 洪惠坤,廖和平,魏朝富,等.基于改进TOPSIS方法的三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统健康评价[J].生态学报,2015,35(24):8 016-8 027.
[18] 崔宁博,张振平,楼豫红,等.基于TOPSIS的区域农业节水发展水平综合评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报.2016,24(10):978-994.
[19] Athanasios Kampas,Athanasios Petsakos,Stelios Rozakis. Price induced irrigation water saving:Unraveling conflicts and synergies between European agricultural and water policies for a Greek Water District[J].Agricultural Systems,2012,113:28-38.
[20] Alvarez J F O,de Juan Valero J A,Martín-Benito J M T,et al.MOPECO:An economic optimization model for irrigation water management[J].Irrigation Science,2004,23(2):61-75.
[21] 刘军,朱美玲.农业用水效率评价指标体系研究[J].节水灌溉,2013(5):61-63.
[22] 乐志华,邵东国,李浩鑫,等.漳河灌区节水改造综合效益评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(12):11-14.
[23] 信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.
[24] 雷勋平,Robin Qiu,刘勇.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(13):243-253.
[25] 李灿,张凤荣,朱泰峰,等.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用绩效评价及关联分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(5):217-227.
[26] 崔和瑞,梁丽华,王立红.基于熵权TOPSIS分析的配电网可靠性评估指标体系[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(13):172-175.
[27] 赵丹,刘东,武秋晨,. 基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的区域农业水资源系统恢复力评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2014(7):52-56.
[28] 梁薇,陆春芽. 优势关系下赋权法和TOPSIS的膜下滴灌模式评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2013(5):70-73.
[29] 方崇,苏超,黄伟军. 基于信息熵大型灌区农业旱情的TOPSIS综合评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2011(5):74-76.