海底油气管道腐蚀失效风险预警方法研究
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摘要
为保障海底油气管道的安全运行,提高失效事故防控能力,针对海底油气管道腐蚀穿孔和破裂等2种失效模式,提出基于风险的管道腐蚀失效预警方法。基于结构可靠性理论,建立管道腐蚀穿孔和破裂失效的极限状态方程,并采用蒙特卡罗法求其解,预测管道失效概率;通过设定管道腐蚀失效风险预警等级,确定预警警度,得出管道关键失效年份,并据此发布预警信息。结果表明:随服役时间增长,管道腐蚀失效概率将发生突变并迅速增大;在管道关键失效时间节点和概率突变年份,管道运营者应密切关注管道的安全状况,并采取必要的管制措施。
To ensure the safe operation of subsea oil and gas pipelines,and improve the capability of preventing and controlling major accident,in terms of two failure modes of subsea pipelines,penetration and burst,a risk-based early-warning methodology was developed in this paper. Limit state functions were developed for corrosion penetration and burst of pipelines by using the structure reliability theory. The functions were solved by the Monte Carlo method. Then,the dynamic failure probabilities of pipelines were obtained. Through setting the early-warning levels of pipeline failure,the early-warning degree and critical failure years of pipelines were determined. Thus,the early-warning information can be released based on the above procedures. The results show that the failure probability of a pipelines increases with its service time,and it will have a sudden change in its aged stage. The operation safety of pipelines should be paid enough attention at the critical time node and necessary control measures should also be implemented.
To ensure the safe operation of subsea oil and gas pipelines,and improve the capability of preventing and controlling major accident,in terms of two failure modes of subsea pipelines,penetration and burst,a risk-based early-warning methodology was developed in this paper. Limit state functions were developed for corrosion penetration and burst of pipelines by using the structure reliability theory. The functions were solved by the Monte Carlo method. Then,the dynamic failure probabilities of pipelines were obtained. Through setting the early-warning levels of pipeline failure,the early-warning degree and critical failure years of pipelines were determined. Thus,the early-warning information can be released based on the above procedures. The results show that the failure probability of a pipelines increases with its service time,and it will have a sudden change in its aged stage. The operation safety of pipelines should be paid enough attention at the critical time node and necessary control measures should also be implemented.
引文
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[2]International Association of Oil&Gas Producers.Risk assessment data directory:riser&pipeline release frequencies[R],2010.
[3]NIKLES M.Long-distance fiber optic sensing solutions for pipeline leakage,intrusion,and ground movement detection:SPIE defense,security and sensing[C].International Society for Optics and Photonics,2009:731 602-731 613.
[4]RAVET F,BRIFFOD F,NIKLS M.Extended distance fiber optic monitoring for pipeline leak and ground movement detection[C].7thInternational Pipeline Conference,2008:689-697.
[5]黄建忠,杨永和,刘伟,等.穿越地震断裂带的管道安全监测预警系统[J].天然气工业,2013,33(12):151-157.HUANG Jianzhong,YANG Yonghe,LIU Wei,et al.A safety monitoring and earlywarning system for buried pipelinescrossing seismic fault belts[J].Natural Gas Industry,2013,33(12):151-157.
[6]孙洁娣,靳世久,孙健.基于多地震波传感器数据融合的管道安全监测预警系统[J].石油学报,2009,30(3):465-468.SUN Jiedi,JIN Shijiu,SUN Jian.Monitoring and prewarning system for security of pipelines based on data fusion of multiseismic sensors[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2009,30(3):465-468.
[7]袁超红.海底管道安全预警技术研究初探[D].东营:中国石油大学(华东),2005.YUAN Chaohong.Preliminary study on safety early-warning of submarine pipeline[D].Dongying:China University of Petroleum,2005.
[8]郑贤斌,周锡河,郭志红,等.基于风险分析和GIS的油气管道安全预警技术研究[J].石油规划设计,2007,18(1):6-9.ZHENG Xianbin,ZHOU Xihe,GUO Zhihong,et al.Study on safety early-warning technology of oil and gaspipeline based on risk analysis and GIS[J].Petroleum Planning&Engineering,2007,18(1):6-9.
[9]谢丽婉.海底管道结构完整性数字化管理技术研究[D].东营:中国石油大学(华东),2011.XIE Liwan.Digital management technology research for submarine pipeline structural integrity[D].Dongying:China University of Petroleum,2011.
[10]LI Xinhong,CHEN Guoming,ZHU Hongwei.Quantitative risk analysis of leakage failure of submarine oil and gas pipelines using Bayesian network[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2016,103:163-173.
[11]DNV-RP-F101,Corroded pipelines[S].2010.
[12]DNV-RP-F107,Risk assessment of pipeline protection[S].2010.
[13]LI Xinhong,CHEN Guoming,ZHU Hongwei,et al.Quantitative risk assessment of submarine pipeline instability[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2017,45:108-115.
[14]AHAMMED M.Probabilistic estimation of remaining life of a pipeline in the presence of active corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,1998,75(4):321-329.
[15]罗金恒,赵新伟,白真权,等.输油管道腐蚀剩余寿命的预测[J].石油机械,2000,28(2):34-36.LUO Jinheng,ZHAO Xinwei,BAI Zhenquan,et al.Residual life prediction of pipeline corrosion[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2000,28(2):34-36.
[16]刘晓东,李著信.应用Monte-Carlo法计算输油管道腐蚀失效概率[J].油气储运,2007,26(12):16-19.LIU Xiaodong,LI Zhuxin.Calcultion of corrosion failure probability of oil pipeline using Monte-Carlo method[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2007,26(12):16-19.