不确定环境下的战略决策:类比推理的作用
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摘要
类比推理主要指个体应用一个领域或场景中的知识来处理另一个领域或场景下的问题。类比推理作为管理判断的内在认知机制,对于理解不确定环境下的战略决策制定有重要意义。尽管近年涌现大量采用类比推理解释战略议题的研究,但未就类比推理的基本过程以及影响其决策效果的因素形成系统性的讨论。本文首先总结了应用类比推理制定不确定环境下战略决策的基本过程;其次,综合已有文献,讨论了映射算法、心智表征、源情境特征、启示特征以及搜寻方式等对类比推理决策效果有直接影响的五大过程因素,以及历史经验、外部信息、环境特征、主体特征四大外部因素如何作用于过程因素而对决策效果产生影响的;最后,从深化个体层类比推理过程、探索团队层/企业层类比推理机制发挥作用的过程、拓展影响决策效果的因素及相互作用这三个方面提出了类比推理研究可进一步拓展的议题。
Analogical reasoning,which refers to relying on the experience or knowledge in one domain to resolve the problems in another domain,is a central component of human cognition to understand strategy-making issues under uncertainty.Although more and more research has applied analogical reasoning to understand various strategic and organizational issues recently,A systematic review and discussion about its process and factors determining the effectiveness of analogical reasoning remains limited.We refer analogical reasoning in strategic decision making to a process that includes cognition and action,to reach the solution to the strategic problem that existed or constructed.The process includes five steps:encode,mapping,judge,search and act.Through a systemic review and integration on prior research,we propose a unified conceptual framework that incorporates four external factors and five process factors,and discuss how these factors interactive to determine the effectiveness of analogical reasoning.We label the complexity and dynamic of the environment,the focus and diversity of external information,the depth,diversity and complexity of the decision maker’s experience and some psychological characteristics(meta-cognitive activities and learning orientation)of the decision maker as external factors,which determine the effectiveness of decisions through influencing the complexity of the mental representation,the algorithm of mapping,the depth and diversity of the knowledge about source contexts,the type of heuristics and the search strategies.These five factors are critical cognition components directly related to make effective decisions,labeled as process factors.Despite much progress,we explicate an agenda for future research.First,in individual-level,more efforts should be devoted into understanding analogical reasoning process.Second,more attention should be directed to scale individual-level analogical reasoning to collective behaviors.Third,factors influencing the performance of decisions and their interactions demand further exploration.
Analogical reasoning,which refers to relying on the experience or knowledge in one domain to resolve the problems in another domain,is a central component of human cognition to understand strategy-making issues under uncertainty.Although more and more research has applied analogical reasoning to understand various strategic and organizational issues recently,A systematic review and discussion about its process and factors determining the effectiveness of analogical reasoning remains limited.We refer analogical reasoning in strategic decision making to a process that includes cognition and action,to reach the solution to the strategic problem that existed or constructed.The process includes five steps:encode,mapping,judge,search and act.Through a systemic review and integration on prior research,we propose a unified conceptual framework that incorporates four external factors and five process factors,and discuss how these factors interactive to determine the effectiveness of analogical reasoning.We label the complexity and dynamic of the environment,the focus and diversity of external information,the depth,diversity and complexity of the decision maker’s experience and some psychological characteristics(meta-cognitive activities and learning orientation)of the decision maker as external factors,which determine the effectiveness of decisions through influencing the complexity of the mental representation,the algorithm of mapping,the depth and diversity of the knowledge about source contexts,the type of heuristics and the search strategies.These five factors are critical cognition components directly related to make effective decisions,labeled as process factors.Despite much progress,we explicate an agenda for future research.First,in individual-level,more efforts should be devoted into understanding analogical reasoning process.Second,more attention should be directed to scale individual-level analogical reasoning to collective behaviors.Third,factors influencing the performance of decisions and their interactions demand further exploration.
引文
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[11]Gavetti G,Greve H R,Levinthal D A,et al.The behavioral theory of the firm:Assessment and prospects[J].Academy of Management Annals,2012,6(1):1-40.
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[13]Gavetti G,Levinthal D A,Rivkin J W.Strategy making in novel and complex worlds:The power of analogy[J].Strategic Management Journal,2005,26(8):691-712.
[14]Gavetti G,Rivkin J W.How strategists really think.Tapping the power of analogy[J].Harvard Business Review,2005,83(4):54-63,132.
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[16]Gentner D.Structure-mapping:A theoretical framework for analogy[J].Cognitive Science,1983,7(2):155-170.
[17]Gentner D.Bootstrapping the mind:Analogical processes and symbol systems[J].Cognitive Science,2010,34(5):752-775.
[18]Grégoire D A,Barr P S,Shepherd D A.Cognitive processes of opportunity recognition:The role of structural alignment[J].Organization Science,2010,21(2):413-431.
[19]Helfat C E,Peteraf M A.Managerial cognitive capabilities and the microfoundations of dynamic capabilities[J].StrategicManagement Journal,2015,36(6):831-850.
[20]Hoskisson R E,Hitt M A,Wan W P,et al.Theory and research in strategic management:Swings of a pendulum[J].Journal of Management,1999,25(3):417-456.
[21]Kaplan S.Framing contests:Strategy making under uncertainty[J].Organization Science,2008,19(5):729-752.
[22]Ketokivi M,Mantere S,Cornelissen J.Reasoning by analogy and the progress of theory[J].Academy of Management Review,2017,42(4):637-658.
[23]Loock M,Hinnen G.Heuristics in organizations:A review and a research agenda[J].Journal of Business Research,2015,68(9):2027-2036.
[24]Lovallo D,Clarke C,Camerer C.Robust analogizing and the outside view:Two empirical tests of case‐based decision making[J].Strategic Management Journal,2012,33(5):496-512.
[25]Maitland E,Sammartino A.Decision making and uncertainty:The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment[J].Strategic Management Journal,2015,36(10):1554-1578.
[26]Markman A B,Gentner D.Structural alignment during similarity comparisons[J].Cognitive Psychology,1993,25(4):431-467.
[27]Martins L L,Rindova V P,Greenbaum B E.Unlocking the hidden value of concepts:A cognitive approach to business model innovation[J].Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2015,9(1):99-117.
[28]Miller K D,Lin S J.Analogical reasoning for diagnosing strategic issues in dynamic and complex environments[J].Strategic Management Journal,2015,36(13):2000-2020.
[29]Morgan G.Paradigms,metaphors,and puzzle solving in organization theory[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,1980,25(4):605-622.
[30]Ocasio W.Towards an attention-based view of the firm[J].Strategic Management Journal,1997,18(S1):187-206.
[31]Powell T C,Lovallo D,Fox C R.Behavioral strategy[J].Strategic Management Journal,2011,32(13):1369-1386.
[32]Simon H A.Making management decisions:The role of intuition and emotion[J].The Academy of Management Executive(1987-1989),1987,1(1):57-64.
[33]Surma J.Supporting strategic decision making with case-based reasoning[J].International Journal of Business Insights and Transformation,2010,3(1):4.
[2]Bingham C B,Eisenhardt K M.Rational heuristics:The“simple rules”that strategists learn from process experience[J].Strategic Management Journal,2011,32(13):1437-1464.
[3]Bingham C B,Kahl S J.The process of schema emergence:Assimilation,deconstruction,unitization and the plurality of analogies[J].Academy of Management Journal,2013,56(1):14-34.
[4]Cornelissen J P.Beyond compare:Metaphor in organization theory[J].Academy of Management Review,2005,30(4):751-764.
[5]Cornelissen J P,Clarke J S.Imagining and rationalizing opportunities:Inductive reasoning and the creation and justification of new ventures[J].Academy of Management Review,2010,35(4):539-557.
[6]Dahl D W,Moreau P.The influence and value of analogical thinking during new product ideation[J].Journal of Marketing Research,2002,39(1):47-60.
[7]Farjoun M.Strategy making,novelty and analogical reasoning-Commentary on Gavetti,Levinthal,and Rivkin(2005)[J].Strategic Management Journal,2008,29(9):1001-1016.
[8]Gary M S,Wood R E.Mental models,decision rules,and performance heterogeneity[J].Strategic Management Journal,2011,32(6):569-594.
[9]Gary M S,Wood R E,Pillinger T.Enhancing mental models,analogical transfer,and performance in strategic decision making[J].Strategic Management Journal,2012,33(11):1229-1246.
[10]Gassmann O,Zeschky M.Opening up the solution space:The role of analogical thinking for breakthrough product innovation[J].Creativity and Innovation Management,2008,17(2):97-106.
[11]Gavetti G,Greve H R,Levinthal D A,et al.The behavioral theory of the firm:Assessment and prospects[J].Academy of Management Annals,2012,6(1):1-40.
[12]Gavetti G,Levinthal D.Looking forward and looking backward:Cognitive and experiential search[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,2000,45(1):113-137.
[13]Gavetti G,Levinthal D A,Rivkin J W.Strategy making in novel and complex worlds:The power of analogy[J].Strategic Management Journal,2005,26(8):691-712.
[14]Gavetti G,Rivkin J W.How strategists really think.Tapping the power of analogy[J].Harvard Business Review,2005,83(4):54-63,132.
[15]Gavetti G,Rivkin J W.On the origin of strategy:Action and cognition over time[J].Organization Science,2007,18(3):420-439.
[16]Gentner D.Structure-mapping:A theoretical framework for analogy[J].Cognitive Science,1983,7(2):155-170.
[17]Gentner D.Bootstrapping the mind:Analogical processes and symbol systems[J].Cognitive Science,2010,34(5):752-775.
[18]Grégoire D A,Barr P S,Shepherd D A.Cognitive processes of opportunity recognition:The role of structural alignment[J].Organization Science,2010,21(2):413-431.
[19]Helfat C E,Peteraf M A.Managerial cognitive capabilities and the microfoundations of dynamic capabilities[J].StrategicManagement Journal,2015,36(6):831-850.
[20]Hoskisson R E,Hitt M A,Wan W P,et al.Theory and research in strategic management:Swings of a pendulum[J].Journal of Management,1999,25(3):417-456.
[21]Kaplan S.Framing contests:Strategy making under uncertainty[J].Organization Science,2008,19(5):729-752.
[22]Ketokivi M,Mantere S,Cornelissen J.Reasoning by analogy and the progress of theory[J].Academy of Management Review,2017,42(4):637-658.
[23]Loock M,Hinnen G.Heuristics in organizations:A review and a research agenda[J].Journal of Business Research,2015,68(9):2027-2036.
[24]Lovallo D,Clarke C,Camerer C.Robust analogizing and the outside view:Two empirical tests of case‐based decision making[J].Strategic Management Journal,2012,33(5):496-512.
[25]Maitland E,Sammartino A.Decision making and uncertainty:The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment[J].Strategic Management Journal,2015,36(10):1554-1578.
[26]Markman A B,Gentner D.Structural alignment during similarity comparisons[J].Cognitive Psychology,1993,25(4):431-467.
[27]Martins L L,Rindova V P,Greenbaum B E.Unlocking the hidden value of concepts:A cognitive approach to business model innovation[J].Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2015,9(1):99-117.
[28]Miller K D,Lin S J.Analogical reasoning for diagnosing strategic issues in dynamic and complex environments[J].Strategic Management Journal,2015,36(13):2000-2020.
[29]Morgan G.Paradigms,metaphors,and puzzle solving in organization theory[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,1980,25(4):605-622.
[30]Ocasio W.Towards an attention-based view of the firm[J].Strategic Management Journal,1997,18(S1):187-206.
[31]Powell T C,Lovallo D,Fox C R.Behavioral strategy[J].Strategic Management Journal,2011,32(13):1369-1386.
[32]Simon H A.Making management decisions:The role of intuition and emotion[J].The Academy of Management Executive(1987-1989),1987,1(1):57-64.
[33]Surma J.Supporting strategic decision making with case-based reasoning[J].International Journal of Business Insights and Transformation,2010,3(1):4.